The economy is projected to rebound by 3.8% in 2021 and 2.5% in 2022.The strong rebound at the end of 2020 has slowed in the first half of 2021 due to a protracted second wave of the virus that has held back economic activity. However, growth is projected to pick up in the second half of the year, driven by domestic demand and commodity exports. Household consumption will contribute significantly to growth as the economy opens up and exceptional savings last year are spent at least partially. Private investment will progressively strengthen.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused millions of workers to lose their jobs, while the number of discouraged workers increased. Investment has been on a downward path already before the crisis, marred by policy uncertainty, and lack of essential infrastructure. Regulatory restrictions in many areas are a threat to the recovery. Stronger growth is needed to place the government debt trajectory on a sustainable path and to finance large unmet needs in education, health and social spending.
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2021 Structural Reform Priorities