After a strong rebound in 2021, GDP is projected to grow by 1.8% and 1.3% in 2022 and 2023 respectively. Household consumption and investment will remain the main drivers of growth. Household income will benefit from the continuation of the COVID-relief grant. The commodity prices boom will support exports. Investment will continue to strengthen over the projection horizon. Inflation reached close to 6% in early 2022, and is projected to increase further due to higher energy prices before starting to fall.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused millions of workers to lose their jobs, while the number of discouraged workers increased. Investment has been on a downward path already before the crisis, marred by policy uncertainty, and lack of essential infrastructure. Regulatory restrictions in many areas are a threat to the recovery. Stronger growth is needed to place the government debt trajectory on a sustainable path and to finance large unmet needs in education, health and social spending.
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2021 Structural Reform Priorities