Output in the Romanian economy is projected to increase by 6% in 2021 and 4.6% in 2022. Investment and pent-up demand will be the main growth drivers. Consumption will pick up as the vaccination rollout progresses and restrictions on activities are eased, leading to a decline in saving. Imports will increase faster than exports due to strong domestic demand. The unemployment rate will decrease gradually as the recovery gains momentum, returning to its pre-crisis level in 2022.
The COVID-19 pandemic risks putting a halt to past strong improvements in living standards and aggravating poverty, especially among marginalised communities, informal workers, and working poor, who are more vulnerable to economic shocks and insufficiently protected by a weak social security system. The crisis also raises concerns about low capacity in the healthcare sector and a lack of resources in deprived schools.
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2021 Structural Reform Priorities