Following a decline of 2.7% in 2020, GDP is projected to recover by 3.7% in 2021 and to grow by 4.7% in 2022. The resurgence of new infections since the beginning of the year will continue to weigh on economic activity. Nonetheless, widespread vaccination and easing of containment measures by the second half of the year should support a strong rebound in consumption and, to a lesser extent, investment. Inflation is set to ease due to continued, though diminishing, spare capacity. The outlook, however, remains uncertain amid epidemiological risks and logistical hurdles for vaccination deployment.
The COVID-19 crisis has exposed long-standing issues in the health care sector, including the vulnerability of the population to respiratory illnesses linked to high air pollution. The main medium-term challenges are linked to the shortages of skilled workers and prevalence of micro and smaller firms with low productivity and weak connections to local, national and international markets. Addressing such challenges is key for digital and green transitions and ensuring their inclusiveness.
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2021 Structural Reform Priorities