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EA and EU Economic Snapshot

Economic Forecast Summary (June 2022)

After a strong rebound in 2021, real GDP is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023. Growth is set to be significantly damped in the first half of 2022 by the war in Ukraine and the lockdowns in China. These factors are also pushing inflation up further, to a projected 7% this year. This is weighing on households’ consumption and increasing uncertainty. With the Russian oil embargo from 2023 pushing oil prices up, growth is expected to remain subdued in 2023, while inflation is set to decline only gradually. Risks to economic activity remain tilted to the downside: severe disruptions in energy, notably gas, supply would hit growth in Europe while pushing inflation further up.

Economic Surveys of the European Union and the Euro Area (September 2021)

The COVID-19 pandemic plunged the EU into its worst-ever recession and risks increasing inequalities, notably between regions. Thanks to a bold and innovative policy response, including a common instrument to finance national recovery plans (Next Generation EU), growth is rebounding, but ambitious reforms will be essential to heal the scars of the pandemic and succeed in the green and digital transitions.

The COVID-19 pandemic forced most euro area economies into repeated lockdowns in 2020 and early 2021 that lead the euro area into its deepest recession on record in 2020. The policy reaction to the crisis was large and rapid.

European Union Executive Summary

Euro Area Executive Summary

E.U. and Euro Area Presentation

Further reading

Reform Priorities (April 2021)

Going for Growth 2021 - European Union

In light of the COVID-19 crisis, the top immediate policy priority is to ensure efficient use of Next Generation EU, a recovery plan combining loans and grants of about 5.5% of EU27 2019 GDP to support member states’ recovery policies. Successful roll-out and implementation of this support will be crucial to reinvigorate economic growth across the European Union, boost digitalisation and innovation, bolster resilience to future shocks and achieve climate and inclusiveness objectives.

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2021 Structural Reform Priorities

  • R&D and digitalisation: Increase investment in R&D and promote the diffusion of new technologies
  • Competition and regulation: Reduce fragmentation in service and network sectors
  • Environmental policy: Accelerate decarbonisation and green innovation
  • Labour market: Ease the recognition of qualifications and protect migrants’ rights
  • Agriculture: Make producer support more environment-friendly and less distortive

 

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