Croatia has navigated well the COVID-19 crisis and the price shocks following Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine. It has achieved robust output growth, rising employment and improving well-being, although inflation has surged. Integration into the euro- and Schengen areas at the start of 2023 are testament to progress, and are providing a further fillip to the economy. Ensuring that fiscal policy is counter-cyclical and that lending supports productive investments can help contain inflationary pressures and sustain growth.
Output growth is expected to moderate to 2.1% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024. Rising wages and jobs growth will support households’ real spending. Croatia’s integration in the euro and Schengen areas plus higher disbursement of European funds are expected to bolster investment and exports. Inflation will gradually abate from current high rates following the retreat in energy and other international prices.
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