OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 provides a consensus assessment of the
ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional,
and global levels, and serves as a reference for forward-looking policy analysis and
planning. Recent surges in agricultural input prices experienced over the last two
years have raised concerns about global food security. This year’s Outlook demonstrates
that rising fertiliser costs can lead to higher food prices. A new feature of the
OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model allows the impact of changing costs of the main mineral
fertilisers to be analysed separately from costs of other production inputs. Based
on this new feature, a scenario analysis estimates that for each 1% increase in fertiliser
prices, agricultural commodity prices would increase by 0.2%. Global food consumption
– the main use of agricultural commodities – is projected to increase by 1.3% per
year over the next decade, a slower pace than the previous decade due to the foreseen
slowdown in population and per capita income growth. This year’s Outlook also provides
improved estimates for food consumption by incorporating for the first time calculation
methods to estimate food loss and waste.
This report is a collaborative effort between the Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United
Nations, prepared with inputs from Member countries and international commodity organisations.
It highlights fundamental economic and social trends that drive the global agri-food
sector, assuming there are no major changes to weather conditions or policies.
More information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org.
Published on July 06, 2023 Latest available edition in: French, Chinese, Italian, Spanish
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