This chapter explores the structure and diversity of upper secondary programmes across OECD countries, focusing on Wales and the comparison systems of this report. While most systems offer structured programmes that balance compulsory and elective content, in Wales learners to design their pathways through a combination of qualifications. The chapter concludes with policy pointers suggesting a more structured approach for the design of pathways to enable systematic progression from along qualifications in upper secondary education.
What Shapes Pathways and Transitions?
A Comparative Perspective on Learners’ Trajectories through Upper Secondary Education in Wales
Abstract
Countries tend to have a national programme, or multiple national programmes in upper secondary, which determine the learning objectives, subjects, depth of content and degree of specialisation learners experience in their upper secondary trajectories. Programmes typically provide learners with some degree of choice – over the subjects they take, the levels at which they learn or which specialisation they pursue. This chapter looks at the diversity of upper secondary programmes internationally and how different programme designs impact learner pathways and transitions. In Wales, rather than there being a single pre-determined programme or two to three main programmes from which learners can choose between – as is the case in most other OECD countries – learners’ upper secondary pathways are shaped by the combination of qualifications they take. This chapter examines how Wales can ensure that all learner pathways support the aims of the Curriculum for Wales, individual aspirations and national needs.
Upper secondary programmes provide a roadmap for learners to complete upper secondary education. They give structure to learner pathways and set clear requirements and expectations for learners and the system. According to the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED), which is used for comparing programmes across countries, “an education programme is defined as a coherent set or sequence of educational activities or communication designed and organised to achieve pre-determined learning objectives or accomplish a specific set of educational tasks over a sustained period” – see Box 3.1 (UNESCO Institute for Statistics, 2012[1]). Upper secondary programmes set out the aims and content of learning, significantly determining how learners spend their time during upper secondary.
In most OECD countries, there are multiple structured upper secondary programmes from which learners choose or are selected into. The most frequent number of upper secondary programmes across the OECD countries is three, most commonly one general programme and two vocational programmes (Stronati, 2023[2]).
Programmes may be set out and defined in the curriculum (as in Estonia), via a programme statement (as in the Netherlands), or via the system of certification (as in British Columbia, Canada). In contrast, Wales does not provide structured programmes but rather learners’ pathways are based on a combination of subject-based qualifications that cumulatively determine much of how learners spend their time in 14-18 education. Figure 3.1 shows, for the comparison systems and Wales, the certificates learners achieve based on the programmes they are enrolled in.
This figure is intended to provide an overview of the main programmes that are taken by most learners of typical upper secondary education age.
Notes: The colour yellow indicates upper secondary education, light blue indicates lower secondary education and dark blue indicates primary education. Green indicates post-secondary non-tertiary.
This figure excludes programmes that are only available part-time, programmes that are fully work-based, non-formal education programmes, programmes aimed at adults and other second-chance programmes, programmes for learners with special learning needs and programmes that include less than 1% of the learners enrolled in upper secondary education.
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2012[1]), International standard classification of education: ISCED 2011, http://uis.unesco.org/en/topic/international-standard-classification-education-isced.
Providing subject-specific and occupationally relevant competencies in upper secondary education
Across the OECD, all countries provide at least one general upper secondary programme and most countries also provide at least one vocational upper secondary programme. Vocational education aims to develop skills that are relevant to an occupation while general education focuses on developing competencies for more advanced education programmes, typically in tertiary education (Box 3.1 provides a fuller description). Providing both general and vocational upper secondary options helps countries achieve two objectives: 1) allowing learners to pursue their interests by offering a range of options; and 2) responding to labour market needs by orienting learners towards professional programmes that provide them with occupationally-relevant skills (OECD, 2010[3]; Stronati, 2023[2]).
The ISCED classification provides an essential distinction in terms of the orientation of upper secondary programmes:
General education upper secondary education
General education is defined as education programmes that are designed to develop learners’ general knowledge, skills and competencies, as well as literacy and numeracy skills, often to prepare participants for more advanced education programmes at the same or a higher ISCED level and to lay the foundation for lifelong learning. These programmes are typically school- or college-based. General education includes education programmes that are designed to prepare participants for entry into vocational education but do not prepare for employment in a particular occupation, trade or class of occupations or trades, nor lead directly to a labour market-relevant qualification.
Vocational upper secondary education
Vocational education is defined as education programmes that are designed for learners to acquire the knowledge, skills and competencies specific to a particular occupation, trade, or class of occupations or trades. Such programmes may have work-based components (e.g. apprenticeships, dual system education programmes). Successful completion of such programmes leads to labour market-relevant, vocational qualifications acknowledged as occupationally oriented by the relevant national authorities and/or the labour market.
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2012[1]), International Standard Classification of Education: ISCED 2011, http://uis.unesco.org/en/topic/international-standard-classification-education-isced.
Across OECD countries, 37% of upper secondary learners are enrolled in vocational upper secondary programmes. Internationally, and across the comparison systems specifically, there is wide variation in the share of learners that are enrolled in vocational upper secondary education, ranging from over half of 15–19 year-olds in the Netherlands (54%) to just 2% in Canada (Figure 3.2) (OECD, 2021[4]). Differences in the size of vocational upper secondary education reflect many factors including the history and development of countries’ education systems as well as the structures of the national labour market. In countries where over half of the cohort are enrolled in vocational upper secondary education – like the Netherlands as well as Austria, Luxembourg and Switzerland – vocational education is rooted in the development of professional guilds in the 12th century and economies based on mid-level tradespeople (Cedefop, 2004[5]). Many other countries with high levels of vocational enrolment in upper secondary education such as Czechia, Slovak Republic, and Poland, were influenced by the Soviet system where upper secondary education was strongly linked to national economy needs (Cedefop, 2002[6]).
Notes: Upper secondary vocational education includes upper secondary school and work-based vocational education (ISCED 2011 level 3 programme 5_SW). For the United Kingdom and Wales, at ISCED 2-3 levels, programmes taken in school settings are classed as general and programmes taken in further education settings (e.g. FE colleges) are classed as vocational.
Countries are ranked in ascending order of the share learners age 15-19 enrolled in upper secondary vocational education.
Source: OECD (2021[4]), “Education at a glance: Enrolment by gender, programme orientation and mode of study”, OECD Education Statistics (database), https://doi.org/10.1787/1e72e8c8-en (accessed on 16 April 2022); Wales specific data provided to the OECD.
What is the size of vocational upper secondary education in Wales?
Comparing the size of vocational upper secondary education in a system using international data provides important contextual information on what upper secondary learners are engaging with, and how their pathways compare and contrast with other systems internationally. However, understanding the size of vocational upper secondary education in Wales is challenging. Internationally comparable data on enrolment rates for Wales and the United Kingdom (as set out in Figure 3.2) do not give an accurate portrayal of whether learners are enrolled in a vocational or general programme because all programmes in the United Kingdom at ISCED 2-3 levels (i.e. lower and upper secondary) which take place in school settings are classed as general programmes. Programmes that do not take place in schools i.e. further education colleges, are all classed as vocational (OECD, 2023[7]). However, in practice many learners in further education colleges in Wales (and other United Kingdom nations) are enrolled in general programmes (i.e. AS/A level qualifications). There are also some vocationally‑oriented qualifications offered to learners in 14-16 education in schools and there is also a small proportion of school-based post-16 learners enrolled in vocational programmes (i.e. vocational qualifications). To obtain a more accurate figure of the size of upper secondary vocational education in Wales, Box 3.2. uses national data from Wales to estimate the proportion of 14-19-year-olds enrolled in vocational upper secondary qualifications and estimates this at approximately 23.6% - lower than the enrolment rate (39%) in internationally reported data.
How many 14-16-year-olds are enrolled in vocational upper education in Wales?
Between 14-16, the vast majority of learners follow General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) programmes which are subject-specific general upper secondary programmes. There are also more vocationally-oriented qualifications available at this stage, although only a minority of learners take these compared to GCSEs.
How many 16-19-year-olds are enrolled in vocational upper secondary education in Wales?
According to the Consistent Performance Measures, there were 29,060 learners – across both schools or FE colleges – who were in programmes due to finish in 2022/2023 and who had started their programme at age 16 i.e. they started an AS/A Level programme in September 2021 and completed it in 2023 (Welsh Government, 2024[8]). Additionally, in 2022/2023, there were 3,430 young people aged 15-19-year-olds enrolled in apprenticeships, which are vocational programmes.
Source: Welsh Government (Welsh Government, 2024[8]), Consistent performance measures for post-16 learning (achievement): August 2022 to July 2023, https://www.gov.wales/consistent-performance-measures-post-16-learning-achievement-august-2022-july-2023; Stats Wales (n.d.[9]), Success in apprenticeships, by academic year and level, https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Education-and-Skills/Post-16-Education-and-Training/Further-Education-and-Work-Based-Learning/Outcomes/Work-Based-Learning/successapprenticeships-by-level-year; OECD (2022[10]), Education at a Glance 2022: OECD Indicators, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/3197152b-en.
Table 3.1 estimates that approximately 26.3% of learners aged 14-19 in Wales are enrolled in vocational education. However, there are some limitations with this calculation:
Wales national data (consistent performance measures) are based on learners’ age at the start of their programme, regardless of the duration of their programme. While AS/A Level programmes typically last two years, vocational programmes may be shorter or longer. This means that, although we know that there were 12,710 learners who were 16 at the start of their programmes and their programmes finished in 2022/2023, we do not know how many other learners were still enrolled at the point the data because their programme was not yet complete. Therefore, this calculation may be undercounting vocational programme enrolments.
Secondly, the calculations include learners who did not continue with a programme after having started it. There is an early dropout rate of 10% for 16-year-old vocational learners and 2% for 16-year-old general starters. Since vocational learners are more likely to not stay enrolled, our estimate may be overcounting them in the share of overall enrolments.
This calculation does not include learners studying full-time programmes which are neither AS/A Level nor vocational programmes, i.e. GCSE qualifications, in post-16 education (less than 1% of learners), learners taking the International Baccalaureate, learners taking part-time programmes and learners in privately funded education.
Source: Qualifications Wales (2024[11]), The Full 14-16 Qualifications Offer Decisions Report, https://qualifications.wales/media/3xfbmd0o/the-full-14-16-qualifications-offer-decisions-report.pdf; Welsh Government (Welsh Government, 2024[8]), Consistent performance measures for post-16 learning (achievement): August 2022 to July 2023, https://www.gov.wales/consistent-performance-measures-post-16-learning-achievement-august-2022-july-2023; Stats Wales (n.d.[9]), Success in apprenticeships, by academic year and level, https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Education-and-Skills/Post-16-Education-and-Training/Further-Education-and-Work-Based-Learning/Outcomes/Work-Based-Learning/successapprenticeships-by-level-year; OECD (2022[10]), Education at a Glance 2022: OECD Indicators, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/3197152b-en.
Vocational options are available for learners in both phases of upper secondary education in Wales
In line with many OECD systems, Wales provides vocational qualifications through provider-based study and through work-based learning (or a combination of the two) (OECD, 2017[12]). Most upper secondary vocational qualifications in Wales are taken in the second phase of upper secondary education (post-16 education) and the vast majority of learners in full-time VET programmes are in further education colleges, with only about 200 learners each year doing a full-time VET programme through a school (Welsh Government, 2024[8]). In 14-16 education, some vocationally-oriented qualifications are available. These are in addition to the general GCSE qualifications which are the main qualifications taken by most learners at 14-16. Since these vocational qualifications tend to be delivered in school settings alongside GCSEs, limited facilities and resources may be available for more specialised learning. Currently, Qualifications Wales (the national independent regulator of non-degree qualifications) is rationalising the offer of publicly funded 14-16 qualifications and is developing new Vocational Certificates of Secondary Education (VCSEs) for this age group, for first teaching from 2026 (Qualifications Wales, 2024[11]) (see Table 1.1 in Chapter 1).
In post-16 education, learners in Wales can also work towards qualifications while in the workforce, including through traineeships, apprenticeships and on the job learning for professional recognition (Qualifications Wales, n.d.[13]).
The abundance of options and levels for vocational education creates a confusing landscape
Wales currently has over 1,500 vocational qualifications available to learners on publicly-funded programmes for learners aged 16-18 (Qualifications Wales, n.d.[14]). These qualifications cover a wide range of areas from Health, Public Services and Care to Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care (Qualifications Wales, n.d.[14]). The qualification that learners work towards can depend on the setting in which they are learning. National Vocational Qualifications (NVQs), for example, are work‑based qualifications that provide learners with the skills for a specific job (Careers Wales, n.d.[15]). Business and Technology Education Council qualifications (BTECs), on the other hand, combine practical and theoretical learning and can be studied in the full range of settings.
While it is good to have a wide range of options to meet different learner needs, a proliferation of qualifications risks creating a confusing landscape which may be difficult to navigate. In 2023, Wales undertook a review of vocational qualifications. The review, supported by insights from the OECD, found that the number of vocational qualifications offered by systems internationally tends to vary significantly – with around 1 400 vocational qualifications on offer in Australia and only 60 vocational qualifications in Sweden (Steering Group for the Review of Vocational Qualifications in Wales, 2023[16]). While public funding for some programmes has decreased significantly in recent years, Wales still stands out with a very high number of vocational qualifications.
Around two-thirds of upper secondary-age vocational learners in Wales are taking below upper secondary level qualifications
In the internationally comparable ISCED classification, a Level 3 qualification is considered to reflect the skills and knowledge associated with upper secondary education (UNESCO Institute for Statistics, 2012[1]). In post-16 education in Wales, vocational qualifications are available at Levels 1, 2 and 3 on the Welsh Credit and Qualifications Framework (CQFW). Box 3.3. discusses the alignment of upper secondary qualifications in Wales to the CQFW and ISCED). In 2022/2023 in Wales, only 31% of 16‑year-olds enrolled in vocational programmes were taking programmes at ISCED 3 / CQFW Level 3 (Welsh Government, 2024[8])1. This means that around two-thirds of learners in Wales aged 16-18 are working towards qualifications which do not, in international terms, provide full completion of upper secondary education. Across the OECD, it is unusual that so many learners aged 16-18 would be working towards qualifications which do not count for full completion of upper secondary education. It is important for Wales to reflect and review if all the country’s 16-18 vocational learners are enrolled in qualifications that provide a comparative level of knowledge, skills and understanding as their peers internationally, and similarly if these qualifications provide an appropriate mix of basic skills and depth for work and lifelong learning.
The Welsh Credit and Qualifications Framework (CQFW) lists qualifications from entry level through to level 8, with GCSEs at Level 1/Level 2 and AS/A Levels at Level 3 (Welsh Government, 2017[17]). Per the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED), GCSEs and other CQFW Level 2 qualifications count for partial completion of upper secondary education and AS/A Levels and other CQFW Level 3 qualifications, including vocational qualifications, count for full completion of upper secondary education (UNESCO Institute for Statistics, 2012[1]). Table 3.2 shows the relationship between CQFW levels and ISCED levels.
A GCSE qualification, of which learners might typically take 9-12, is expected to take 120 hours of learning time to complete and is listed as worth 12 credits. An AS/A Level qualification, of which learners might typically take 3-4, is recorded as taking 500 hours to complete and is worth 50 credits. The Advanced Skills Baccalaureate Wales, which is at CQFW Level 3 same as AS/A Levels, is expected to take 550 hours and so is worth 55 credits (Table 3.2) (Welsh Government, 2017[17]).
Note: Each of the qualifications comprising the new Skills Suite will be available at entry level, level 1 and level 2 – the level and title of qualification achieved will be determined by the combination of units taken.
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2012[18]), International Standard Classification of Education: ISCED 2011, http://uis.unesco.org/en/topic/international-standard-classification-education-isced; OECD (2020[19]), INES data collection on ISCED programmes, https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/ines.html; Welsh Government (2017[17]), Credit and Qualifications Framework (CQFW), https://www.gov.wales/credit-and-qualifications-framework-cqfw#content; Qualifications Wales, (2024[11]), The Full 14-16 Qualifications Offer Decisions Report, https://qualifications.wales/media/3xfbmd0o/the-full-14-16-qualifications-offer-decisions-report.pdf.
Comprehensive systems provide some opportunities to develop occupationally relevant skills
Some OECD systems do not have any upper secondary vocational programmes according to the ISCED classification. Across the focus countries this includes British Columbia (Canada), Ireland and New Zealand. However, these systems still provide learners with opportunities to study occupationally relevant content (Box 3.4). This has similarities with 14-16 education in Wales where learners can do some vocational learning for a portion of their timetable if they opt into vocational subjects/qualifications. Upper secondary programmes and certificates in British Columbia and New Zealand are modular and credit based, enabling leaners to take some courses in occupationally focused content.
VET in Canada - Undifferentiated programmes
In Canada (except Quebec), VET at the upper secondary level is not offered as a separate programme. Instead, vocational learning is available in the form of individual optional courses. In undifferentiated upper secondary (high school) programmes, there is no single decision point where learners choose between a vocational or general programme, as learners continue to take other courses in their curriculum with a general focus at the same time as pursuing vocational courses. However, if learners wish to pursue a special vocational certification or endorsement, they are encouraged to make this decision early in their secondary school career, to ensure that they have the time to acquire enough credits towards the endorsement.
As with differentiated VET programmes, these upper secondary vocational courses are intended to prepare learners’ transition from school to the labour market or to further post-secondary vocational studies. However, they also have direct access to tertiary education should they prefer to take that pathway.
Examples of vocational options learners can take in British Columbia include:
Youth Explore Trades Skills 10-12, where learners explore a variety of possible trades related skill, while earning credit towards secondary school graduation.
Youth Explore Trades Sampler, a 12-week (300 hours) programme that gives learners the opportunity to explore up to five trades and gain up to 12 elective credits.
Work Experience 12A/12B for learners to further explore career areas and to develop or practice job readiness, employability, or job-specific skills.
Youth Train in Trades, for learners to start formal trades training through SkilledTradesBC and earn credits towards Graduation and a post-secondary credential.
Youth Work in Trades, for learners to develop skills through practical, hands-on work experience, in addition to earning 16 Graduation credits.
VET in New Zealand – partnerships support vocational learning
In New Zealand, as part of the National Certificate of Educational Achievement (NCEA) learners can gain credits towards the minimum qualification credit requirement via curriculum-derived ‘achievement standards’ as well as from a wide range of other standards, including vocational assessment standards developed by industry standard-setting bodies. Learners can access vocational learning in a range of ways, including via secondary-tertiary partnerships (Trades Academies) and via workplace-learning initiatives. Schools with the relevant equipment and workforce can also apply for consent to deliver and assess this learning directly. Where schools have partnerships for secondary-tertiary programmes or workplace-learning, information about these options may be included directly in schools option booklets. However, it varies from school to school the extent to which individual learners will have access to different vocational options and how these are organised.
Source: Education at a Glance 2023 https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2023_e13bef63-en; British Columbia Government (2023[20]), Career Programs, https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/education-training/k-12/support/career-programs; New Zealand Government Ministry of Education (n.d.[21]), Trades Academies, https://youthguarantee.education.govt.nz/initiatives/opportunities-at-school-and-beyond/trades-academies/;Tertiary Education Commission (2022[22]), Gateway Funding, https://www.tec.govt.nz/funding/funding-and-performance/funding/fund-finder/gateway/.
Providing programmes that reflect and support engagement with the curriculum
The relationship between curriculum, assessment and certification is determined both by the national curriculum (discussed in Chapter 2) and how certification is designed and structured. Typically, across OECD countries, learners work towards an upper secondary certificate. This certificate represents the successful completion of upper secondary education and is often used in some way to determine entry to tertiary education programmes. Since these certificates represent the sum of what learners are expected to engage with and achieve during upper secondary, the requirements for learners to achieve these certificates have a strong impact on what they learn during upper secondary.
In some cases, the curriculum itself sets out what is required for certification. In Estonia, for example, the curriculum for general upper secondary education sets out how studies are to be organised in upper secondary programmes, including the courses learners take and the requirements to receive an upper secondary school graduation certificate. In contrast, the Curriculum for Wales does not specify summative assessment requirements for certification. Instead, assessment is determined by the qualifications learners take, which are developed independently of the Curriculum for Wales – although new made-for-Wales qualifications will be designed based on the Curriculum for Wales (Qualifications Wales, 2024[11]). Therefore, programmes of study towards new made-for-Wales qualifications in 14-16 education should support engagement with the Curriculum for Wales.
Assessment may drive learners to engage with a narrower interpretation of the curriculum
Since assessment and certification carry high stakes for learners’ future pathways, there are incentives for teachers and learners to prioritise the content to be assessed. This can lead to an effective narrowing of the curriculum to what is assessed. Non-assessed parts of the curriculum may be undervalued and struggle to compete for time in learners’ busy schedules. The ‘washback’ effect can lead to assessment specifications taking on the role of a default curriculum (Alderson and Wall, 1993[23]). This effect has been observed in both Ireland and New Zealand and is a driver of reforms in both countries (Smyth, 2019[24]; New Zealand Council for Educational Research, 2019[25]).
To avoid a scenario where the curriculum learners experience becomes excessively limited due to downward assessment pressures, countries tend to pursue two main approaches (which may be, and often are, used to complement each other):
Ensuring that assessment for certification closely reflects the curriculum.
‘Constructive alignment’ is when the three elements of learning, teaching and assessment are all appropriate and relevant to each other (Biggs, 1996[26]). For example, in New Zealand, the intended approach is that the National Curriculum sets out high-level expectations for learners in each Learning Area and across the curriculum levels. This is then used to inform the development of Achievement Standards, which determine what learners need to accomplish to gain credits for the upper secondary certificate, the National Certificate of Educational Achievement. The development of assessment tasks and instruments is based on these Achievement Standards, with the New Zealand Qualifications Authority externally developing assessments for some standards and teachers developing assessment activities for others (New Zealand Qualifications Authority, 2024[27]).
Separately certifying curricula goals that are typically covered in subject-specific courses and their assessments.
For example, in British Columbia, learners must achieve 4 credits from a Career Life Education course and 4 credits from a Career Life Connections course to receive their school-leaving certificate. These courses build on the Career Education learners experience from kindergarten through to Grade 12 and can be delivered either outside or inside the timetable (British Columbia Government, 2019[28]). By making Career Education a mandatory requirement for graduation, the B.C. government ensures that all learners access some form of career education while still at school and it is prioritised in a similar way as other subjects which are more traditionally assessed, such as mathematics or national language.
Similarly, in Singapore, A-Level learners are required to do a General Paper and Project Work to develop their thinking, process and communication skills, reflecting the ‘knowledge skills’ part of the A-Level curriculum (Sin and Goh, 2017[29]).
While these approaches are used to ensure learners still engage with the breadth of the curriculum despite assessment pressures, there are still some aspects of the curriculum which may be less appropriate to be assessed e.g. social and emotional skills (OECD, 2023[30]). It is still important that there is a curriculum underpinning teaching and learning – not just assessment and qualification requirements – so that teachers and schools can work towards ensuring learners engage with, and develop skills and competencies in, areas which are less suitable for assessment.
Promoting full engagement across the breadth of the curriculum in Wales
Most qualifications in Wales assess bodies of knowledge and skills related to a specific subject, discipline or occupational area. For example, general upper secondary qualifications such as GCSEs and AS/A Levels focus on a specific subject like on English Language and Literature and vocational qualifications like BTECs focus on specific bodies of occupational skills like Advanced Manufacturing. Decisions on developing new Made-for-Wales GCSEs are intended to support delivery of the Curriculum for Wales by:
Including a mix of qualifications that reflects the breadth and balance of the Curriculum for Wales and schools’ curricula, including qualifications such as Food and Nutrition, Digital Media and Film, Design and Technology and British Sign Language
Providing qualifications that create opportunities for learners to make connections across different areas
Providing qualifications that include a manageable mix of assessments with less emphasis on end-of-course examinations (Qualifications Wales, 2023[31]).
While subject-based qualifications in Wales are the historic and predominant practice, innovations such as the Welsh Baccalaureate and the Skills Challenge Certificate – and now the Skills Suite and the Advanced Skills Baccalaureate Wales – aim to expressly support the development of transversal skills.
First introduced in 2003, with various updates and iterations since then, the Welsh Baccalaureate (Welsh Bacc), was designed to support broad learning, with requirements for learners to achieve literacy and numeracy-related qualifications, a minimum number of GCSEs, AS/A Levels or vocational qualifications and the ‘Skills Challenge Certificate’, which involved learners completing ‘challenges’ and an individual project. As an aggregated qualification, learners needed to complete other subject-sized qualifications to achieve it. The Welsh Bacc could be awarded to 14-16 learners and again at an Advanced level for post-16 learners (Welsh Government, 2019[32]). Its breadth – encompassing a range of subjects – makes the Welsh Bacc similar to other overarching leaving certificates, with broader, holistic and transversal components such as those found in British Columbia or Singapore. However, while it was the Welsh Government’s policy position that they expected the Welsh Bacc to be offered for all learners, the Advanced Welsh Baccalaureate was only taken up by about two thirds of learners who continued in full-time education post-16 (Welsh Government, 2023[33]) (Careers Wales, 2022[34]) (National Assembly for Wales, 2019[35]). In addition, the perception and understanding of the Welsh Bacc was mixed (National Assembly for Wales, 2019[35]). As a result, Wales is now phasing out the Welsh Bacc.
Despite the decision to discontinue the Welsh Bacc, the country is still keen to support cross-curricular skills development and the broader goals of the Curriculum for Wales (Qualifications Wales, 2024[11]) (WJEC, n.d.[36]). To support cross-curricular skills development, the qualifications landscape will include:
In the 14-16 education phase: From 2026, there will be a new Skills Suite of Qualifications (including Skills for Life, Skills for Work and a Personal Project) (WJEC, n.d.[37]) (Qualifications Wales, 2024[11]).
In post-16 education: the aggregate Welsh Bacc and its component Advanced Skills Challenge Certificate qualification has been replaced with the Advanced Skills Baccalaureate Wales, which is the same size as an AS/A Level qualification, starting in 2025.
In addition to these specific skills-focused qualifications, the New Made-for-Wales GCSEs will also engage with the cross-cutting themes and the four purposes of the Curriculum for Wales. Likewise, new VCSEs (vocational qualifications at 14-16) are intended to include opportunities to develop cross‑curricular skills of literacy, numeracy and digital competence (Qualifications Wales, 2023[38]).
Both the new Skills Suite qualifications and the Advanced Skills Baccalaureate Wales are stand-alone qualifications roughly the size of a subject-based qualification (e.g. a GCSE or AS/A Level qualification) and so this represents a shift away from an overarching qualification model. This means that there is still no single qualification that all learners must engage with and nor will there be qualifications which span the full length and duration of upper secondary. This means Wales (as well as other United Kingdom nations) is still an outlier compared with other OECD systems as it does not have an overarching qualification setting expectations for the combination of courses learners take.
Coherence in upper secondary education is about ensuring learners develop a set of skills and competencies that provide the necessary foundations for more complex study or the development of more specific skills in the workplace (OECD, 2024[39]). Coherence can be analysed in terms of the subjects and disciplines that learners undertake and how far different types of content interact and build on one another, creating pathways into meaningful jobs and contributions to their societies. Coherence means that subjects are complementary, so that learners can identify linkages across domains, and that learners are taking a combination of subjects that will support them to be prepared for their next steps i.e. learners experience a well-rounded curriculum (OECD, 2024[39]). Coherence is important since the content learners engage with during upper secondary can either open doors to future possible pathways or limit their options (Daniell, 2018[40]).
In Wales, where learners take different combinations of qualifications, both in 14-16 education and in post-16 education, coherence is important so that qualifications work together to set learners up well for further education, employment opportunities and to make smooth transitions to adult life.
Compulsory and optional content across upper secondary programmes internationally
Across all OECD countries, there is an expectation that learners in upper secondary education will engage with certain areas of learning or meet minimum baseline standards, as deemed important nationally. For example, all systems set some requirements for mathematics and national language achievement in upper secondary education, reflecting their centrality to success at this stage of education and in life more broadly (Stronati, 2023[2]). However, the ways in which this expectation is set varies, with some systems focussing more on regulating what schools are expected to deliver and others focussing more on incentivising learners. Different approaches are discussed below:
Setting expectations and requirements for what schools offer
The curriculum and other regulatory levers can be used to set an expectation or requirement for schools to offer certain courses, and to even ensure that all learners take certain courses. While these might be presented as ‘compulsory’ by the school and perceived by learners as courses they have to take, these courses do not necessarily function as requirements for completion and certification.
Establishing programmes for schools to deliver and learners to follow
A common approach among OECD countries, including Estonia, Portugal, the Netherlands, and Sweden is to set out the requirements that learners must meet in order to complete a particular upper secondary education programme. Programme requirements may be established in law, as is the case in Estonia (Estonia Government Ministry of Justice, 2011[41]). These requirements typically involve completing compulsory courses as well as completing a certain number of elective/optional courses. Schools need to deliver programmes in line with these requirements and learners need to meet these requirements to complete their upper secondary education programme and gain certification.
Incentivising learners through certificate requirements
In British Columbia, where there are not different upper secondary programmes, certification requirements are used to ensure that learners engage with content and meet minimum standards that are deemed important for all learners. For example, there are more requirements across a wider range of subject areas, but learners still have a lot of flexibility to choose courses. Even if schools are not explicitly required to offer certain subjects or a specified range of subjects, they are still incentivised to offer a curriculum which best enables learners to remain engaged and complete upper secondary certification.
Many systems combine these multiple approaches by establishing programmes for schools to deliver – with some scope for schools to determine what exactly they offer to learners – and then learners must meet the programme requirements to complete upper secondary and gain certification.
Most OECD countries balance compulsory and optional content
Systems which follow a programme-based approach tend to include a greater proportion of compulsory courses compared to optional courses (see Figure 3.5). In the Netherlands, for example, the subjects learners take are almost entirely pre-determined by their programme. Most OECD countries which use programmes or a certificate to set requirements structure these so that:
Compulsory subjects ensure that learners develop breadth in a range of key subjects
Compulsory subjects are frequently offered at different levels
Some degree of learner choice is combined with structured specialisation i.e. learners take a pre-set combination of subjects designed to coherently support pathways to a particular industry or study field e.g. humanities, building and construction (Stronati, 2023[2]).
Learner choice about their subjects and specialisations can create the space for them to take ownership of their learning and construct a curriculum that best aligns with their strengths, interests, and aspirations. Providing some choice and supporting informed decision-making also plays an important role in the development of young people’s perceptions of their agency and ability to exercise it, which becomes critical as they prepare to enter the unstructured world after school (Perico E Santos, 2023[42]).
Most OECD countries make subjects compulsory to encourage breadth
Most systems, with the exception of a handful of English-speaking countries (including Ireland2, New Zealand and United Kingdom systems), also set a wide range of compulsory subjects beyond mathematics and national language. There is significant commonality in these subjects, particularly for general education programmes, typically including:
the national language(s)
mathematics
a science subject
humanities (history, geography, social studies and sometimes citizenship education)
a foreign language (mostly English for countries where it is not one of the national languages)
physical education (including health in some countries)
in some cases, also an arts subject (such as art or music) (Stronati, 2023[2]).
The subjects listed above are not always compulsory in vocational programmes. For vocational programmes that provide a pathway to tertiary education, many of the general subjects listed above are compulsory. For vocational programmes that orient learners towards the workforce, other subjects aligned to a programme’s occupational focus are prioritised.
Learners’ subject choice is supported by structured specialisation in certain systems
Many countries provide learners in both general and vocational upper secondary education with the option to specialise by choosing from a structured set of subjects in a single domain, for example:
In Portugal, general upper secondary learners choose from one of four specialisations: Science and Technology, Socio-Economic Sciences, Languages and Humanities, and Visual Arts.
In the Netherlands, HAVO/VWO learners choose from one of four ‘profiles’, or specialisations: Economy and Society, Culture and Society, Nature and Health, and Nature and Technology. Across all of these profiles, certain subjects like Dutch, English and Mathematics are taken by all learners.
In Sweden, upper secondary vocational learners choose from 12 different broad occupational areas ranging from plumbing and property to treatment and care, and within each domain, they can choose further specialisations and options. Box 3.5 shows how programmes can be used to set the direction for the breadth and depth of learners’ study.
By having a structured, overarching programme, policymakers can ensure that a learner’s overall programme is aligned to the goals the system has for upper secondary education while still providing some choice.
In Sweden, when deciding to do either vocational or general upper secondary education, learners also select their course of study from a choice of 18 programmes, such as Electricity and Engineering (vocational) and Economics (general). Some subjects are compulsory across all programmes and others are compulsory to the specific programme chosen (as shown in Figure 3.3 with the example of the Economics programme). This creates a consistent framework across all 18 programmes, even though the extent to which learners study some compulsory subjects can vary. For example, learners in the Arts programme do 200 points of History, whereas learners in vocational programmes may do as little as 50 points of History. About one third of a vocational programme is comprised of general education subjects.
Sources: Skolverket [Swedish National Agency for Education], (n.d.[43]), Läroplan, program och ämnen i gymnasieskolan [Curriculum, programs and subjects in upper secondary school], https://www.skolverket.se/undervisning/gymnasieskolan (accessed 31 October 2023).
Few OECD countries provide entirely free subject choice for learners
In a minority of systems, including New Zealand and Wales for post-16 education, there are no national-level restrictions on the subjects learners take (although schools may still impose their own policies to guide learner choice). In most of the upper secondary programmes analysed across the comparison systems, free choice options make up less than 50% of the learner’s programme (Figure 3.5). While free choice can support learner autonomy and engagement, too much choice can hinder coherence and it can be difficult for governments to ensure that all learners are taking a combination of subjects that will support future pathways. When making choices, learners who attend educational institutions with higher overall social-economic background and who come from more advantaged socio-economic backgrounds themselves tend to have more information and resources to support their decision-making (Stronati, 2023[2]) (Perico E Santos, 2023[42]). Box 3.6 discusses the challenges of high choice in upper secondary education through the case study of New Zealand.
Coherence is one of the challenges of the qualification system in New Zealand – a system that, like Wales, offers students a high degree of free choice over the content they will learn in upper secondary. The upper secondary certificate in New Zealand, the National Certification of Educational Achievement (NCEA), is designed to provide flexibility and learners can construct programmes from a wide range of general and more occupationally-oriented options. However, this large degree of choice means that learners risk making choices that are “non-strategic” and “ad hoc course-choice making” inadvertently limits their future opportunities (Daniell, 2018[40]). This is particularly true for learners who do not have a clear plan for what they want to do once they graduate, or who do not receive sufficient support to understand what their future plans would require.
These risks are exacerbated since the system in New Zealand is granulated to the level of assessment standard, meaning different schools can offer different variations of courses and learners might be able to opt-in or out of certain assessments. This flexibility ultimately means that learners may take courses and combination of courses which open fewer doors to future pathways and risk limiting their future opportunities. For example, lower performing schools are more likely to provide courses that do not provide the foundations for learners to progress to higher levels of NCEA in that subject, meaning that learners’ course options for the final years of upper secondary education can be more restricted, which has a flow-on effect to what they do after school (Daniell, 2018[40]).
NCEA Change Package – consolidating options and reducing risk for learners
New assessment standards for subjects are being developed, whereby there will be fewer standards in each subject and each subject will include an even split of externally-assessed standards and internally-assessed standards. This is to help ensure that learners are more consistently taking a coherent combination of standards in a subject area. This also aims to ensure that learners would be less likely to not take the externally-assessed standards – which are often seen as important for assessing broad coverage of a subject area and are reliable indicators of a learner’s understanding of the foundations of a subject. However, schools and teachers are still free to design NCEA ‘courses’ using assessment standards from across two or more subject areas. The full suite of new assessment standards is expected to be in place from 2029.
Sources: Madjar et al. (2009[44]), Targets and talk: Evaluation of an evidence-based academic counselling programme, https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/handle/2292/18870?show=full (accessed 23 October 2023); Daniell (2018[40]), Dead Ends and Doorways: Attainment and Equity in Upper Secondary School Qualifications Pathways, https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/handle/2292/45083 (accessed 23 October 2023); New Zealand Ministry of Education (n.d.[45]), How NCEA requirements are changing, https://ncea.education.govt.nz/understanding-how-ncea-requirements-are-changing (accessed 17 December 2024).
Subject choice and learner pathways in Wales
Legally, no subjects in Wales are compulsory at 14-16 although school-level policies typically mean that students must follow a fairly consistent set of subjects
The 14-19 phase in Wales is different from international practice in that no subjects are technically compulsory. Yet practice and custom mean that schools typically set a policy that learners must take English, Welsh, Mathematics and Science, as well as typically some form of religious, equality and diversity or philosophy and ethics education – with learners then having choice over the approximately three optional subjects they take (Figure 3.4). Some schools also required learners to do the Skills Challenge Certificate (Welsh Government, 2019[32]). Achievement in GCSE subjects, and Mathematics and English in particular are often requirements to access the main general and vocational post-16 programmes. Similarity, measures of learners’ performance in GCSEs or equivalent qualifications have historically been used to compare schools and for accountability purposes (Welsh Government, 2019[46]). These measures capture learners’ performance in science, literacy and numeracy, along with their best results in six other qualifications, thereby encouraging fairly consistent school-level policies in terms of the subjects students take in Wales.
An analysis of a sample of school policies on what subjects learners take in Years 10 and 11 reveals that there is variation in what exactly schools signal to learners is ‘compulsory’, although learners tend to be required by their schools to take English, Welsh, mathematics and science subjects (Figure 3.4).
Sample policies for what subjects learners are required by the school to engage with (may or may not be as assessed subjects for qualifications). This provides a tally for how many courses learners are required by the school to take.
Note: Schools have been anonymised. Schools were randomly selected based on the approximate number of pupils in year 11. Schools 1 and 2 are smaller schools with 75 pupils aged 15; schools 3 and 4 are small to medium-sized schools with 140-150 pupils aged 15; schools 5 and 6 are medium to large-sized schools with 200 pupils aged 15; schools 7 and 8 are larger schools with 300-400 pupils aged 15. Not all subjects that are specified as core subjects in the school subject policies are examined subjects. For schools 1 and 7, the number of optional subjects that learners can take is not specified.
Source: Anonymous sample of schools in Wales.
With changes to both the curriculum and qualifications landscape in Wales, the subjects and qualifications learners take in 14-16 education may evolve. The 14-16 Learning Entitlement guidance sets an expectation that learners are offered “the most appropriate” qualifications that are “sufficiently challenging, ambitious and stretching” (Welsh Government, 2024[47]), but it also opens the door to more flexibility in the approaches schools take to designing programmes of learning and assessment, depending on how schools choose to implement the guidance. As discussed in Box 3.6 in the example of New Zealand, ensuring effective implementation of flexible curricula requires significant support for teachers and schools and can risk that learners do not always make strategic choices that lead to future pathways.
Wales might consider monitoring the qualifications that are offered to learners in the 14-16 period, the number of qualifications learners take and the guidance offered to students to make decisions about their subject and qualifications options.
At 16-18, Wales is one of the few systems where most learners have entirely free choice
The wide-ranging choice experienced by learners in post-16 education in Wales and other United Kingdom nations is unparalleled across other OECD countries (Stronati, 2023[2]). It also contrasts sharply 14-16 education, where school-level policies determining the majority of subjects learners take. Figure 3.5 compares learner choice in Wales at 14-16 and then post-16 education with the comparison systems in this report. In post-16 education in Wales (as in other United Kingdom systems), there are no required subjects or combinations. Post-16 learners can typically choose from around 30 or more AS/A Level or equivalent vocational qualifications, depending on their sixth form or further education college (Coleg Cambria, 2023[48]) (WJEC, n.d.[49]).
Approximate calculations based on publicly available data
Note: Percentages represent the value in column “Compulsory options chosen by the learners” in the tables in Annex 3.A.
With the implementation of Singapore-Cambridge Secondary Education Certificate (SEC) examinations from 2027, students will be able to take at least five and up to nine examinable subjects. Compulsory subjects at upper secondary will be: English Language, Mother Tongue Languages, Humanities, Mathematics and Science.
Source: For Estonia, data is based on the information provided in the national curriculum for upper secondary schools: https://www.hm.ee/en/national-curricula; For the Netherlands, data is based on the information provided for the common part across the profiles, and the information provided on the requirements of the four profiles: https://www.slo.nl/sectoren/havo-vwo/profielen/gemeenschappelijk/, https://www.slo.nl/sectoren/havo-vwo/profielen/vakken-profiel/, https://www.slo.nl/sectoren/havo-vwo/profielen/vakken-profiel-0/, https://www.slo.nl/sectoren/havo-vwo/profielen/vakken-profiel-1/, https://www.slo.nl/sectoren/havo-vwo/profielen/vakken-profiel-2/; For Portugal, data is based on the curriculum matrices: http://www.dge.mec.pt/curriculo-nacional; For Sweden, data is based on the Programme Structure document listed for each of the 6 college preparation and 12 vocational programmes: https://utbildningsguiden.skolverket.se/gymnasieskolan/om-gymnasieskolan/gymnasieskolans-program.
For British Columbia, data is based on the graduation requirements: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/education-training/k-12/support/graduation; For Ireland, data is based on the information provided on the Senior Cycle webpage and the Programme Statement documents for the Established and Vocational Programme: https://www.curriculumonline.ie/Senior-cycle/Curriculum/, https://www.curriculumonline.ie/Senior-Cycle/Leaving-Certificate-Vocational-Programme-(LCVP)/, https://www.curriculumonline.ie/getmedia/be7c149f-7c67-4866-8f88-6420ff4d67a3/Revised-LCAPS.pdf; For New Zealand, data is based on the NCEA Level 1-3 requirements, https://www.nzqa.govt.nz/ncea/understanding-ncea/how-ncea-works/ncea-levels-and-certificates/; For Singapore, data is based on the information provided on the relevant course webpages: https://www.moe.gov.sg/secondary/courses; For Wales, additional information in the notes is taken from the Welsh Baccalaureate National/Foundation Specification document and the Advanced Welsh Baccalaureate Specification document: https://www.wjec.co.uk/qualifications/welsh-baccalaureate-national-foundation/#tab_keydocuments, https://www.wjec.co.uk/qualifications/welsh-baccalaureate-advanced/#tab_keydocuments.
Since learners have full choice over their subjects and qualifications in post-16 education, there are no consistent or common courses which all learners take (even though it is desired that most post-16 learners would take the Advanced Skills Baccalaureate Wales). Unless there is confidence that all of the numerous ways in which learners can complete upper secondary education equally provide learners with the skills and knowledge they need for their next steps, there is a risk that the government cannot consistently ensure that all learners are getting the full benefits from upper secondary education and are prepared for adult life. Given there is no statutory relationship between the Curriculum for Wales and post-16 education, there is also the risk that its aims and approach to teaching and learning dissipate when young people move into post-16 education.
In post-16 education, there are no levelled options
Within the context of programmes that count for full completion of upper secondary education (i.e. ISCED 3), most systems across the OECD provide content at different levels or provide variations of subjects, enabling different learners to engage with the subject area at different levels of breadth or complexity (Stronati, 2023[2]). In Sweden for example, learners can study core subjects at different levels in order to meet their requirements, such as Swedish 3, Mathematics 2. Similarly in Wales, at 14-16, for GCSE Mathematics and Numeracy and GCSE The Sciences, learners take either a higher tier or a foundation tier examination paper (Qualifications Wales, 2023[31]).
In post-16 education, there are no levels within qualifications i.e. all learners taking an AS/A Level qualification, or a particular vocational qualification, achieve at the same level. Comparative analysis has suggested that the depth and level of demand in key A Levels subjects such as Mathematics, Chemistry, History and English is high from an international comparative perspective. In some AS/A Levels – such as Chemistry – content matches the demands of a first-year bachelor’s degree in tertiary education (Ofqual, 2012[50]). Overall, this might mean the post-16 offer is less accessible than in other systems where levelled options in core subjects like Mathematics and national language are consistent for the duration of upper secondary education.
A sizeable share of learners take qualifications at an internationally lower level of education
Level 3 on the ISCED framework corresponds to programmes that are typically designed for completion of secondary education in preparation for tertiary education or to provide skills relevant for employment or both (UNESCO Institute for Statistics, 2012[1]). Yet, in Wales, only around a third of 16-year-olds (31% in 2022/2023) are taking vocational upper secondary qualifications at Level 3 on the CQFW and the internationally comparable ISECD framework (Welsh Government, 2024[8])3. This contrasts with most OECD countries where upper secondary-aged students are expected to engage with Level 3 qualifications i.e. qualifications for completion of upper secondary and the skills for tertiary education or work.
Learners may experience learning at different levels due to combinations of qualifications they take and the levels at which these qualifications are set. In 14-16 education, for example, new foundation qualifications, available from 2027, will be available at Entry Level/Level 1 on the CQFW for 14-16-year-olds – a step below current GCSE and soon-to-be-implemented VCSEs (Qualifications Wales, 2024[11]). The provision of courses at this level means that the cohort of 14-16 learners may be learning at different levels from Entry Level to Level 2 on the CQFW.
While choice and flexibility for different learners is essential in upper secondary education, it is also important that learners pursue qualifications with access to clear future pathways and that they are informed about how their qualification choices will shape their future options. Notably in Wales, full completion of upper secondary education may become very lengthy and challenging for learners completing Entry or Level 1 qualifications at 16. The latter is especially true because access to full Level 3 programmes in sixth forms and further education colleges in Wales typically requires GCSEs or VCSEs.
Based on the analysis and evidence presented above in this chapter, this section summarises how the programme a learner takes in Wales, including their qualifications, is shaped by various policies and how this, in turn, impacts on learner pathways. Table 3.2 summarises the policy pointers and relevant country examples.
Wales has few levers to promote coherent engagement with key skills and structured learning for the duration of upper secondary
In Wales, there is no upper secondary completion certificate. This means that Welsh policymakers lack a powerful policy lever to influence the learning experiences and activities of young people in this phase. In the other comparison systems reviewed in this report, policymakers can use the national certificate to incentivise schools and learners to meet a defined standard. By building key learning into overarching leaving certificates, policymakers can also signal to learners and their families the types of learning that are particularly valuable.
The absence of an overarching upper secondary certificate in 14-16 education creates challenges around ensuring space for cross-subject learning that is central to the Curriculum for Wales as the individual subject-specific qualifications risk dominating the learning programme. The new 14-16 Learning Entitlement guidance has the potential to provide a framework which guides schools towards ensuring learners consistently access the most important learning while also engaging in more specialised learning in coherent and structured ways. However, as discussed in Chapter 2, providing the opportunities for learners to engage in cross curricular and inter-disciplinary learning is highly challenging and will likely require significant professional capability and resources. Schools and teachers will need be supported to make the most of their flexibility and autonomy in the most effective ways and supporting a degree of standardisation and consistency across learners for the most important learning that should not be left to chance.
In 16-18 education, young people in Wales have some of the greatest choice across the OECD in terms of the subjects and qualifications they take, potentially resulting in huge diversity in what learners study. While a broad skills mix is good for an economy, it risks that learners pursue combinations of qualifications that are not coherent or which do not provide smooth pathways into work or post-secondary education. The absence of any statutory link between the Curriculum for Wales and post-16 education also does not promote continued engagement with key skills, like maths or national language, transversal skills or the broader aims for Curriculum of Wales.
Policy pointers for Wales
In 14-16 education, to support the implementation of guidance aimed at ensuring all schools offer qualifications that are appropriate and ambitious for each learner, Wales can:
Require that schools consider and demonstrate that all qualifications students take provide accessible and valued future pathways.
Support schools to ensure all learners understand the range of options they have and have the necessary information to make informed decisions. Monitoring indicators can check that processes are in place to support this, for example, indicators such as time allocated to Careers and Work‑Related Education or learner statements of their perceived readiness for post-16 transitions.
Monitor and review qualifications taken in 14-16 education to understand national trends in qualifications and post-16 pathways, including:
The offer and actual take-up of qualifications in 14-16 education and pathways into post-16 education (i.e. which qualifications at 14-16 typically lead to which qualifications in post-16 qualifications and post-secondary education and work).
The learner group’s profile (e.g. socio-economic background, ethnicity and other factors, such as eligibility for Free School Meals).
In post-16 education to promote greater consistency across the full upper secondary phase, consider introducing learning expectations for all learners focussing on key skills that learners should acquire by age 18/19. This might also include:
Consider specifying the expected number, ISCED / CQFW level and/or combination of qualifications that learners should achieve by the end of this phase. By having a clearly defined expectation for the qualifications learners achieve by age 18/19, Wales would be one step closer to having a completion measure for upper secondary education that could be used for trends analysis within Wales and for comparative analysis with other OECD systems (see Chapter 4).
Wales provides many different qualifications, but many learners are directed to post-16 qualifications that do not count for upper secondary completion
Learners in Wales build their programme from a wide range of qualifications, in particular in post-16 education. This contrasts with many other OECD countries where upper secondary programmes specify some common compulsory subjects and learner choice to create structured bodies of learning for the duration of upper secondary education (i.e. typically by 18). Moreover, many of the qualifications available in Wales, such as CQFW Level 2 qualifications, do not count for full completion of upper secondary education. In Wales, only about one third of 16-year-olds enrolled in vocational programmes are taking programmes at ISCED 3 / CQFW Level 3 (Welsh Government, 2024[8])(additional data provided by the Welsh Government). While for some individuals, qualifications at below Level 3 may best support continued learning progress and support positive post-educational outcomes in the labour market, from a national perspective this may be a sign that the education options that exist are not best enabling access to programmes which enable learners to ‘complete’ upper secondary and develop the associated skills.
In order for learners to have the skills they need – and the recognised credentials – Wales should support learners to achieve qualifications which count for full completion of upper secondary education according to the ISCED classification.
Policy pointers for Wales
Consider measures to ensure that all learners achieve GCSEs and, where a lower-levelled qualification will support smoother progression for learners, that other qualifications provide a pathway to the next step on the CQFW.
For example, for learners not ready to take a full programme of GCSEs, schools could arrange that they take a blended programme comprising GCSEs for subjects where students are more confident and capable, and foundation qualifications where students miss core knowledge or need more time to build their skills. While some schools may already be doing this, the Welsh Government could work with schools to support their capacity to effectively identify learners who would most benefit from such a blended programme and how it could be designed in a way that keeps options open for learners. This could look like developing diagnostic assessments that can be used on entrance to secondary and/or guidance for discussions with learners’ families to ensure that decisions about qualification options are made with full awareness of possible pathways impacts.
Consider how to design programmes that give learners the best chance to complete upper secondary education by age 18/19.
Ensure that there are high quality literacy and numeracy content for students who enter post-16 education with a lower base-level of skills for example, dedicated qualifications that are designed to provide a next step up for learners who had some achievement at GCSE level but were not attaining C grades.
Explore how the delivery of programmes for learners with lower skills can be best tailored to meet their needs and to support accelerated progression, such as identifying areas of strength, developing an adapted programme that focuses on their weaker skill areas. Such a programme might enable learners to focus on weaker areas while still progressing in areas of strength. Wales could also take inspiration from the Leaving Certificate Applied in Ireland, where learners who are not ready to take the Leaving Certificate (Established) programme still engage in a structured programme that leads towards completion, and they can also take some subjects at Leaving Certificate (Established) level (National Council for Curriculum and Assessment Curriculum Online, n.d.[51]).
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[16] Steering Group for the Review of Vocational Qualifications in Wales (2023), A Review of Vocational Qualifications in Wales, https://www.gov.wales/review-vocational-qualifications-wales-report.
[2] Stronati, C. (2023), “The design of upper secondary education across OECD countries: Managing choice, coherence and specialisation”, OECD Education Working Papers, No. 288, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/158101f0-en.
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A breakdown of the minimum requirements per subject for upper secondary programmes in Estonia, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Sweden
Note: This table represents the minimum requirements as articulated by the education system – including minimum requirements per subject as well as minimum requirements overall. If learners are able to take additional elective subjects, the data presented is as if learners only take the minimum required. Where learners have choices with different time requirements, i.e. between 'Narrow Mathematics' or 'Extensive Mathematics', the data presented is as if they choose the lighter option.
Compulsory non-subject-specific work such as careers education, research work, a high school thesis, or a non-specified practical assignment is included in the "Other subjects" category.
Where learners have the choice between select subjects from different subject categories (i.e. either Art or Technology) this is recorded as "Compulsory options chosen by the learners". The category is also used when learners have a free choice option.
For Estonia, only data for the general upper secondary programme is included in the table above.
The data for Estonia represents the requirements for learners who have Estonian as a first language. Learners in Russian-language or other-language upper secondary schools (where in accordance with the school curriculum Estonian is studied as a second language must take additional hours of language learning.
Only the upper secondary years of the Dutch VWO and HAVO programmes are recorded.
Portugal information for Science-Humanities learners is provided in minutes per week. Hours per year and hours total for the course is determined based on a 33-week academic year. Where there is an option or a range indicated, the minimum minutes per week is used to make calculations.
For Portugal, the sum of the workloads allocated to each subject results in a total time less than the total indicated for the whole courses, as the management of the remaining time is at the discretion of the school. This is recorded as “Compulsory flexible subjects chosen by schools”.
Portugal information for Professional courses is provided in hours for the whole of the training cycle.
For Sweden, programme documents specify individual courses. These do not always neatly align to the learning area categorisations used for this table and many courses appear to contain a mixture of general and vocational learning. Courses have been placed into the above categories by the author and the author acknowledges that this is a matter of interpretation based on course headings.
Source: For Estonia, data is based on the information provided in the national curriculum for upper secondary schools: https://www.hm.ee/en/national-curricula; For the Netherlands, data is based on the information provided for the common part across the profiles, and the information provided on the requirements of the four profiles: https://www.slo.nl/sectoren/havo-vwo/profielen/gemeenschappelijk/, https://www.slo.nl/sectoren/havo-vwo/profielen/vakken-profiel/, https://www.slo.nl/sectoren/havo-vwo/profielen/vakken-profiel-0/, https://www.slo.nl/sectoren/havo-vwo/profielen/vakken-profiel-1/, https://www.slo.nl/sectoren/havo-vwo/profielen/vakken-profiel-2/; For Portugal, data is based on the curriculum matrices: http://www.dge.mec.pt/curriculo-nacional; For Sweden, data is based on the Programme Structure document listed for each of the 6 college preparation and 12 vocational programmes: https://utbildningsguiden.skolverket.se/gymnasieskolan/om-gymnasieskolan/gymnasieskolans-program.
A breakdown of the minimum requirements per subject as a proportion of the minimum certification requirements for upper secondary programmes in British Columbia, Ireland, New Zealand, Singapore, and Wales
Note: This table represents the minimum requirements per subject as a proportion of the minimum certification requirements. For British Columbia, 100% = 80 credits. For Ireland, 100% = five subjects. For New Zealand, 100% = 80 credits. For Singapore N-Level programmes, 100% = five subjects, and for the A-Levels, 100% = seven subjects. For Wales, the number of subjects is not specified.
In British Columbia, to graduate with both diplomas, French Immersion and Francophone learners must meet the graduation requirements for the Dogwood Diploma, with additional requirements.
For the Irish Leaving Certificate Applied, learners do two modules of Gaelige and two modules of Modern European Language, or four modules of Sign Language for participants from the Deaf community. This has been recorded as two modules of a second language and two modules of another language.
In Ireland, it is compulsory for learners to do at least five subjects. However, learners typically do seven subjects. For most learners then, Irish would actually be 1 in 7 subjects, rather than 1 in 5 as recorded in the table.
For the Irish Leaving Certificate Vocational Programme, learners must take a minimum of five Leaving Certificate subjects including Irish and they must study two Link Modules. It is recommended three periods per week are allocated to the Link Modules in Year 1 of the programme and two periods per week in year 2. For simplicity, the Link Modules have been recorded in the table with the same weight given as other subjects.
Starting from the 2024, learners in Singapore will no longer be sorted into Normal (Technical), Normal (Academic) and Express streams and learners will have greater flexibility to take subjects at different subject levels as they progress through secondary school. In the Netherlands, the Curriculum for Primary Education is from 4 to 12-years-old, although it is only mandatory from the age of 5. From the 2027 graduating cohort, learners will sit for the Singapore-Cambridge Secondary Education Certificate examinations instead of Singapore-Cambridge General Certificate of Education examinations at Ordinary Level, Normal (Academic) Level or Normal (Technical) level. Since the Singapore-Cambridge Secondary Education Certificate has not yet been implemented, data included in the table reflects the existing certification requirements.
Calculations for Singapore have been made based on the minimum number of subjects learners normally take. Most learners in Normal (Academic) course take between 5 and 8 subjects at N(A) or O-Level. Most learners in the Express course take 7 or 8 subjects at O-Level. For both the Normal (Academic) course and the Express course the compulsory subjects are English Language, Mother Tongue Language, Mathematics, Science and Humanities (with Social Studies). Most learners in the Normal (Technical) course take between 5 and 7 subjects at N(T) level or higher, with English Language, Mother Tongue Language, Mathematics, Computer Applications and Social Studies as compulsory subjects. The remaining subjects learners take (typically 1 H1 subjects and 3 H2 subjects) are classified as ‘options chosen by the learners’, even though at least one of these subjects must be from a contrasting discipline.
For the purpose of calculating the data for Singapore 14-16 programmes, it is assumed learners in Normal (Technical) courses take 6 subjects, learners in Normal (Academic) courses take 7 subjects and learners in Express courses take 8 subjects.
Calculations for Singapore’s A Level programme are based on a typical combination of subjects for Singapore A Levels, as expressed in https://www.seab.gov.sg/docs/default-source/research-and-presentation-articles/research-and-presentation-articles/2017/1-the-A Level-curriculum-and-examinations.pdf. H1 General Paper and Project Work are classified as ‘other subjects’. Mother Tongue Language is classified as a second language.
Information on Singapore's vocational post-16 programmes are not included in the table as there are a wide range of programmes, each with their own requirements.
As the Normal (Technical), Normal (Academic), and Express courses extend over lower and upper secondary, only information for upper secondary is included in the table.
With the implementation of Singapore-Cambridge Secondary Education Certificate (SEC) examinations from 2027, students will be able to take at least five and up to nine examinable subjects. Compulsory subjects at upper secondary will be: English Language, Mother Tongue Languages, Humanities, Mathematics and Science.
Although no GCSEs are compulsory in Wales, there are strong incentives for schools to ensure learners take a literacy subject (either Welsh first language or English language or Welsh literature or English literature), a numeracy subject (either mathematics-numeracy or mathematics) and a science subject (a range of science single and double award qualifications). Schools are also incentivised to ensure learners take six other subjects. Findings from Figure 3.4Sample of school policies in years 10 and 11 has been used to inform the breakdown of subjects that learners must take and the proportion of free choice subjects.
For Wales, other post-16 options beyond the AS and A Levels are not included as each programme has its own requirements.
Source: For British Columbia, data is based on the graduation requirements: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/education-training/k-12/support/graduation; For Ireland, data is based on the information provided on the Senior Cycle webpage and the Programme Statement documents for the Established and Vocational Programme: https://www.curriculumonline.ie/Senior-cycle/Curriculum/, https://www.curriculumonline.ie/Senior-Cycle/Leaving-Certificate-Vocational-Programme-(LCVP)/, https://www.curriculumonline.ie/getmedia/be7c149f-7c67-4866-8f88-6420ff4d67a3/Revised-LCAPS.pdf; For New Zealand, data is based on the NCEA Level 1-3 requirements, https://www.nzqa.govt.nz/ncea/understanding-ncea/how-ncea-works/ncea-levels-and-certificates/; For Singapore, data is based on the information provided on the relevant course webpages: https://www.moe.gov.sg/secondary/courses; For Wales, additional information in the notes is taken from the Welsh Baccalaureate National/Foundation Specification document and the Avanced Welsh Baccalaureate Specification document:https://www.wjec.co.uk/qualifications/welsh-baccalaureate-national-foundation/#tab_keydocuments, https://www.wjec.co.uk/qualifications/welsh-baccalaureate-advanced/#tab_keydocuments.
← 1. Additional data provided by the Welsh Government.
← 2. In Ireland, while students taking the Leaving Certificate (Established) and Leaving Certificate Vocational Programme have a high degree of choice and flexibility, learners in the Leaving Certificate Applied programme have more structured programmes. These learners must take modules in English and communication, mathematical applications, language, social education and vocational specialisms.
← 3. Additional data provided by the Welsh Government.