What Shapes Pathways and Transitions?

A Comparative Perspective on Learners’ Trajectories through Upper Secondary Education in Wales

Report

18 February 2025

4. Learning experiences and pathways across, and within, diverse education institutions

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Abstract

This chapter looks at Wales’ data for learners during and around transitions points to create a picture of their experiences and how this compares internationally. It discusses how to support positive and cohesive transitions and experiences across different institutions, in the context of high institutional autonomy in Wales. The chapter concludes with policy pointers for the country, suggesting ideas for using national data to promote the completion of a full cycle of upper secondary education.

Understanding the challenge for Wales: ensuring all learners access a full cycle of upper secondary education

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A key challenge for governments around the world is ensuring all young people in upper secondary education, regardless of where they live or go to school, can:

access high-quality teaching, learning and assessment that enables them to realise their full potential;
engage with an upper secondary curriculum that is both broad and foundational, opening doors to a range of pathways; and
choose study options aligned to their interests and aspirations and which assist them to integrate successfully into work and social life.

As shown in Figure 4.1, the individual school that a learner attends can shape their pathways through interactions with the curriculum, qualifications and/or programmes.

Figure 4.1. Education institutions and their interaction with the curriculum, programme and certifications
Copy link to Figure 4.1. Education institutions and their interaction with the curriculum, programme and certifications

Education across upper secondary (14-19) institutions in Wales is varied and flexible. This context reflects trust and confidence in teachers' professional judgement, giving teachers and institutions the space to adapt teaching and learning to local contexts and learners' interests and needs. However, flexibility and autonomy can also create challenges around ensuring equitable support to achieve the country’s ambitious goals for all its young people. The section below discusses the opportunities and challenges for creating a cohesive learning experience across the entirety of upper secondary education in Wales.

The challenge of achieving a cohesive learning experience across upper secondary education in Wales

The Curriculum for Wales provides a relatively high-level and non-prescriptive national framework that sets the expectation that all learners access a broad and balanced curriculum. All learners are expected to be supported to develop four core purposes related to their development as individuals and members of society:

Ambitious, capable learners ready to learn throughout their lives
Enterprising, creative contributors, ready to play a full part in life and work
Ethical, informed citizens of Wales and the world
Healthy, confident individuals, ready to lead fulfilling lives as valued members of society (Welsh Government, 2021[2]).

The Curriculum for Wales is being implemented progressively from year 9 (age 13) in 2024/2025 to year 11 (age 16) in 2026/2027 (see Box 4.1). In the first phase of upper secondary (14-16), education is driven by qualifications, mainly General Certifications of Secondary Education (GCSEs). New Made-for-Wales GCSEs, designed to align with the Curriculum for Wales, will be in place for first teaching from September 2025 (Qualifications Wales, 2023[3]). When making decisions around the subjects and qualifications they offer, schools will be guided by the Welsh Government’s guidance on the 14 to 16 Learner Entitlement (Welsh Government, 2024[4]). Box 2.3 in Chapter 2 provides further information on the 14 to 16 Learner Entitlement.

Box 4.1. On-going reforms in upper secondary education in Wales

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The Curriculum for Wales began being fully implemented in secondary schools in September 2024. To support the roll-out of the Curriculum for Wales, new Made-for-Wales GCSEs will be taught from September 2025. The full suite of new 14-16 qualifications, including Vocational Certificates of Secondary Education (VCSEs), foundation qualifications and a new Skills suite (made up of Skills for Life and Skills for Work qualifications and a Personal Project qualification) will be in place from 2027. Foundation qualifications will be pitched at Entry Level/Level 1 on the Welsh Credit and Qualifications Framework (CQFW) – a step below GCSE and VCSEs, and the new Skills suite will fill the space left by the National/Foundation Skills Challenge Certificate in providing assessment for skills-focussed learning.

Alongside these changes, the Welsh Government is deciding what information should be used for school self-evaluation and improvement to replace the current interim performance measures. The interim performance measures are used to compare the qualification outcomes across schools and local authorities and observe trends over time. The interim measures aggregate learner results from a specific number of GCSE or equivalent qualifications.

In the post-16 space, since August 2024, Medr, the Commission for Tertiary Education and Research, is a new arm’s length body responsible for funding and overseeing post-16 education and research. Medr’s establishment is the first time funding, planning and regulation of post-16 education and research will be managed and coordinated by a single body.

Source: Welsh Government (2023[5]), About the Commission for Tertiary Education and Research (CTER), https://www.gov.wales/commission-tertiary-education-and-research/about-commission-tertiary-education-and-research-cter (accessed 29 April 2024); Welsh Government (2024[6]),14 to 16 learning under the Curriculum for Wales, https://www.gov.wales/14-16-learning-under-curriculum-wales-html (accessed 29 April 2024).

Wales provides more autonomy to teachers and schools compared to many other OECD systems

Secondary schools in Wales have some of the greatest levels of curricula autonomy across the OECD – even prior to the introduction of the Curriculum for Wales in secondary schools. The OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2022 asked principals about the level of responsibility and decision-making for a range of aspects relating to the curriculum. Based on the index of school responsibility for curriculum, Wales has one of the highest levels of school responsibility for the curriculum (with only England (United Kingdom), Estonia, Japan and the Netherlands reporting higher levels) (OECD, 2023[7]).

The Curriculum for Wales requires new approaches to teaching and learning

The Curriculum for Wales is an ambitious curriculum with schools required to integrate ‘statements of what matters’ for each thematic area of learning, such as Humanities or Health and Well-being (called “Area of Learning and Experience” in Wales) with cross-curricular skills. Learning must be grounded in the pursuit of the ‘four purposes’ (ambitious capable learners; enterprising, creative contributors; ethical, informed citizens; healthy, confident individuals) (Welsh Government, 2021[2]).

The Welsh Government recognises that this approach to a curriculum demands innovation and creativity from teachers (Welsh Government, 2021[2]). Teachers will need to be supported by strong leadership so that they are empowered to make decisions about the needs of their learners for improved outcomes (Welsh Government, 2021[2]). This is no easy task, especially for upper secondary teachers where learning is traditionally organised by subjects and the knowledge and skills requirements for qualifications often drives practice.

Internationally, school autonomy is typically accompanied by a more structured approach to programme design

Wales is one of few countries among the comparison systems for this report (Chapter 1 provides an overview of the comparison systems) where there is great potential for variation in the courses and programmes delivered by similar education institutions. Table 4.1 provides an overview of how different settings deliver combinations of programmes across comparison systems and Wales. Unlike most OECD systems, where upper secondary learning is shaped by a common framework of compulsory or core subjects, in post-16 education in Wales there are virtually no requirements on the subjects or qualifications that learners must take (see Chapter 3 for a discussion of the qualifications in Wales).

In Wales, the two main types of post-16 institutions – schools with sixth forms and further education colleges – can both theoretically deliver vocational and general qualifications, with discretion over the exact qualifications they provide. Similarly, in the Netherlands and Sweden, schools can choose which programmes and qualifications they offer, based on the needs of their learners, the regional context and what they as a school are best placed to deliver. In Sweden for example, schools might offer both general and vocational programmes, or either predominantly general or predominantly vocational programmes However, in contrast to Wales, in Sweden and the Netherlands, the actual programmes that schools deliver are tightly defined. For example, learners in Sweden take some subjects which are common for all learners and the optional subjects that they choose themselves are guided by a national framework e.g. within one of 12 ‘national programmes’ learners choose from pre-defined specialisation areas and select programme deepening’ subjects from a predefined list linked to their programme focus. The national programme structure helps to ensure that the curriculum and programme each school offers supports clear and coherent pathways in the context of school autonomy.

Table 4.1. Different settings deliver different combinations of programmes across comparison systems
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High levels of school autonomy can make it challenging to ensure all learners can access all options

While the school systems that perform well in PISA tend to be those that entrust principals and teachers with more responsibility, this allocation of responsibility can make it hard for education systems to ensure that schools offer a complementary range of options. To address this challenge in Sweden, municipalities participate plan together to ensure learners can access a range of programme and specialisation options that are relevant to the local economy (Box 4.2).

Box 4.2. Swedish municipalities: co-ordinating the range of options available in a local area

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In Sweden, municipalities decide what programmes they want to have on offer in their area, ensuring that the range of programmes reflect the local economy as well as learner interests and aspirations. Since a recent amendment to the Education Act, municipalities must co-operate and establish agreements with at least two other nearby municipalities. Municipalities use data provided by the Swedish National Agency for Education to plan, streamline the use of resources, encourage learners to take programmes that align with areas of forecasted skill demand and overall and to improve access to a comprehensive and wide range of high-quality education options.

School principals in Sweden must also consider the needs of the labour market and work with municipalities to determine their offer. For example, a school may give priority to certain specialisations and elective options to create a programme that best meets local and regional labour market needs. Together, this means that, even though not all programmes and specialisations are offered by all schools, learners within a local area can still access a wide range of locally-relevant options that will support their future pathways.

Source: Country input; Skolverket [Swedish National Agency for Education] (2023[17]), Regional planering och dimensionering av gymnasial utbildning [Regional planning and dimensioning of upper secondary education], https://www.skolverket.se/regler-och-ansvar/forandringar-inom-skolomradet/regional-planering-och-dimensionering-av-gymnasial-utbildning (accessed on 12 December 2023).

Learners in Wales transition to different settings mid-way through upper secondary education which is unusual internationally

One of the unique features of upper secondary education in Wales, and across other systems of the United Kingdom, is the division of upper secondary education into two distinct phases, each marked by high stakes national qualifications. These two phases are:

14-16 phase: compulsory education predominantly in schools
At 14, most learners begin a two-year general upper secondary programme working towards national qualifications, the GCSEs. In this phase, learners tend to work towards a consistent set of subject qualifications, balancing core and optional subjects. Learners are expected to be taught in accordance with the curriculum, with the new Curriculum for Wales currently being rolled out. Education is compulsory until 16 and typically takes place in schools.
16-18 phase: post-compulsory education across schools and further education colleges
At 16, learners who stay on in education can pursue upper secondary education by taking Advanced Subsidiary / Advanced Level (AS/A Level) qualifications, typically in three to four subjects or by taking vocational qualifications. If learners have not yet achieved key GCSEs, they may still take these / retake them. In this phase, learners have the choice of enrolling in a school sixth form, a further education college or in a work-based training programme. A third (32%) of secondary schools in Wales do not offer post-16 provision, meaning that after completing Year 11, around one in three learners has no choice but to transition to a new setting if they wish to remain in education (Welsh Government StatsWales, 2022[18]).
The Curriculum for Wales does not formally apply to learners in post-compulsory education (16-18). In this phase, learning is guided by a wide range of qualifications and is overseen by the Learning and Skills (Wales) Measure, which places a duty on local authorities to maximise the availability of courses available to learners (Welsh Government, 2014[19]).

The education setting for post-16 education can influence young people’s programmes and qualifications. School sixth forms predominantly offer general education e.g. AS/A Levels, while further education colleges offer both general and vocational education options. At age 16, learners are therefore faced with a range of decisions, not only about where to study but also what to study, both in terms of vocational or general qualifications and the subjects they choose.

The transition to post-16 education coincides with the end of compulsory education

At age 16, learners in Wales have already completed two years of upper secondary education and taken high stakes qualifications – GCSEs. Since the GCSEs were historically considered an exit point from education, particularly for learners who were not anticipating progressing to tertiary education, it may be more natural that 16 continues to be an exit point for some learners from formal education. This is an unusual structure from an international perspective – few if any other OECD countries have a high stakes transition that coincides with the end of compulsory education part-way through upper secondary. The situation in Wales may hinder full completion of upper secondary (Figure 4.3 shows that enrolment over the upper secondary period in Wales is significantly lower than the average across OECD countries).

The transition to post-16 education in Wales brings significant changes to teaching, learning and learner experiences

Wales is one of relatively few countries where there is a major transition during upper secondary and it is at this point that learners select general or vocational programmes. In contrast, in most OECD countries, learners typically select a general or vocational programme earlier when they transition into upper secondary (Perico E Santos, 2023[20]). In Wales, for learners who go to a further education college at 16, the transition comes with broader changes to their day-to-day experiences: from not wearing a uniform and having more flexibility to come and go from their educational setting, to no longer having things like assemblies and school sport in their timetable. Even for learners who stay in a school for post-16 education, there will be changes to their educational experience. At this point, the range of subjects learners take drops considerably. For learners in general programmes at 16, the number of subjects they take drops from 10-11 to just three to four. Of the comparison systems in this report, only Singapore has a transition at 16 that is similar to the transition point in Wales, where learners transition to either a general or vocational programme and, in many cases, to a different educational establishment.

Differences in learner experiences pre- and post-transition might be especially prominent once, from 2025, new curriculum-aligned Made-for-Wales GCSEs are implemented. Since the Curriculum for Wales only applies to 3-16 education, it does not formally influence post-16 education. Instead, post-16 learning goals are set by the qualifications learners take. Once the Curriculum for Wales is fully implemented, the changes to teaching and learning practice may have some flow-on effects for post-16 education – although this is more likely to be the case in school sixth forms rather than further education colleges. In school sixth forms, teachers may follow the principles of the Curriculum for Wales with their post-16 classes. By contrast, learners moving to further education colleges or work-based learning will be moving to settings with no statutory relationship to the Curriculum for Wales. The policy options at the end of this chapter encourage Wales to consider how to ensure a cohesive learning experience across the full breadth of upper secondary education to avoid learners facing disjointed expectations and learning cultures, which might undermine smooth transitions and ultimately the aims of the Curriculum for Wales.

Learners’ progression through upper secondary education

Data presented below shows that a key challenge for Wales is ensuring that all learners remain engaged and attending their final, critical phase of schooling.

In Wales, young people’s participation in education drops significantly around age 16

In Wales, 77.1% of 15–19-year-olds are enrolled in education at any level (OECD, 2022[21]). This is six percentage points below the OECD average of 83.9% (OECD, 2022[21]) (Figure 4.2).

Figure 4.2. Enrolment rate of 15-19-year-olds in all levels of education
Copy link to Figure 4.2. Enrolment rate of 15-19-year-olds in all levels of education

A key challenge for Wales is the high stakes transition at 16. The rate of young people not in education in Wales increases from about 3% at age 15 to 15% at age 16 as learners undertake the major transition from compulsory to post-compulsory education and, for many, to new learning environments (Figure 4.3) (OECD, 2022[21]). At 16, 84.78% of 16-year-olds are enrolled in education, 10 percentage points less than the average across the OECD (95%).

Figure 4.3. Enrolment rates of 15- to 19-year-olds in ISCED 2-5 education for Wales and the OECD average
Copy link to Figure 4.3. Enrolment rates of 15- to 19-year-olds in ISCED 2-5 education for Wales and the OECD average

Given the broad recognition across OECD countries that completing upper secondary education is the minimum level of achievement that young people need for success in life and work, the high shares of young people in Wales leaving education before completing a full course of upper secondary education is detrimental for the country's young people and the national economy, and of concern for the government. A particular issue for Wales, given the diverse education institutions at 14-19 and the absence of a national measure certifying completion of upper secondary education, is understanding where learners are at different phases, especially from an internationally comparative perspective.

Current data in Wales about learner destinations and qualifications makes it difficult to understand exactly where upper secondary learners are. Using national data, Figure 4.4. attempts to calculate how the Year 10 (age 14) cohort moves through upper secondary and into different institutions. The high share of 16-18-year-olds not in any education is notable. Developing more transparent and accessible data about learner pathways across the full 14-19 period would help Wales to better understand learner progress, achievement and create an accountability framework focused on overall outcomes by the end of formal schooling for each learner, in contrast to a qualifications-based approach as is currently the case. The policy options at the end of this chapter provide initial suggestions to support Wales in building this information infrastructure and reporting.

Figure 4.4. Pathways through upper secondary education in Wales – approximate calculations based on national data
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Insights from data – 15-year-olds’ perceptions and experiences of school in Wales

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In the context of change and reform, gathering and using data about learners’ progress and wider experiences will be crucial for highlighting priorities to achieve the Curriculum for Wales’ vision. International data from the OECD’s survey of 15-year-olds internationally, the Programme of International Student Assessment (PISA) provides insights into the experiences of 15-year-olds at school in Wales. These data are important for Wales when considering the current challenges learners face to fully engaging in school and how to best support schools implementing the new curriculum to create an environment conducive to learning and where young people feel safe, comfortable and ready to learn.

Key insights from these data include:

15-year-olds in Wales are missing school more than their peers across the OECD on average.
The classrooms of 15-year-olds in Wales are less conducive to learning than the OECD average – there is more noise and disorder which disrupts learning and learners feel less safe.
15-year-olds in Wales feel less confident about learning independently and the activities that support this, such as organising their time and monitoring their progress, than the OECD average.

Missing school

While the fall in participation in education at 16 in Wales (Figure 4.3) is likely influenced by the transition to new institutions, high stakes certification and the end of compulsory education, international data suggest that participation in learning is already a challenge in the first phase of upper secondary education in Wales.

Learners in Wales are missing more school than many of their peers across the OECD

Learners who skip school miss out on important learning and risk falling behind their peers. Over a third of sampled 15-year-old learners (37.4%) in Wales reported skipping a whole day of school at least once in the two-week period prior to the PISA test, compared to less than a fifth (19.8%) across the OECD on average (OECD, 2023[7]) (Figure 4.5).

Figure 4.5. Percentage of learners who reported that in the two weeks prior to the PISA test they skipped a whole day of school at least once, PISA 2022
Copy link to Figure 4.5. Percentage of learners who reported that in the two weeks prior to the PISA test they skipped a whole day of school at least once, PISA 2022

On average across the OECD, learners who miss school for more than three consecutive months at least once at any education level score 35 points less in mathematics, after accounting for learners' and schools' socio-economic profile (OECD, 2023[7]). Wales has the highest rate of 15-year-old learners absent from school for three or more consecutive months during upper secondary education compared with other OECD systems (OECD, 2023[7]) (Figure 4.6).

In order to better prepare young people for their adult lives and to ensure they have the skills they need to actively participate in their communities and enter the workforce, it has to be a priority for Wales to increase participation across the whole 14-19 cohort – both pre- and post-16. The sooner learners fall out of the education system, the fewer opportunities they have to develop key skills and gain qualifications.

Figure 4.6. Percentage of learners who reported that they missed school for three consecutive months at least once in upper secondary education
Copy link to Figure 4.6. Percentage of learners who reported that they missed school for three consecutive months at least once in upper secondary education

The classroom experiences of 15-year-olds across schools in Wales

Data from PISA provides insights into learners’ classroom experiences, in particular, how conducive the classroom climate is for learning. Compared with other systems internationally, 15-year-olds in Wales report that key aspects of the classroom climate – discipline and feeling safe – are less conducive to learning. As well as undermining learning, a classroom where learners feel unsafe and learning is disrupted does not support learner engagement with school and may discourage participation in education.

The disciplinary climate in classrooms in Wales is not always conducive to learning

Learners in Wales are much more likely to report that the classroom climate disrupts learning than their peers across the OECD. The share of 15-year-olds reporting that there is noise and disorder in their classes every or most lessons in Wales (39.5%) is almost 10 percentage points higher than across the OECD on average (30.3%). Similarly, more learners in Wales (31.5%) report that the teacher has to wait a long time for learners to quiet down than on average across the OECD (25.0%) (OECD, 2023[7]).

Over one in five (22.9%) learners in Wales report that they could not work well in their classes every or most lessons. Distraction, due to a learner’s own poor behaviour, that of their peers or caused by digital devices, harms learning. A one-unit increase in the index of disciplinary climate is associated with a 10‑point increase in learners’ PISA mathematics scores, after accounting for learners’ and schools’ socio‑economic profile (OECD, 2023[7]).

Compared with other United Kingdom countries, learners in Wales feel less safe in their classrooms

While there are many factors that contribute to absence, truancy and overall learning outcomes, how learners feel at school, and on their way to and from school, may be a contributing factor. Learners in Wales report not feeling safe in their classroom at a level slightly above the OECD average (7.4% in Wales compared with 6.9% on average across the OECD). This is a noticeably higher than in other United Kingdom systems. In Scotland, only 4.6% of 15-year-olds report feeling unsafe in their classes. Shares of learners feeling unsafe were also below the OECD average in England and Northern Ireland. Feeling safe is important for learning; a one-unit increase in the index of feeling safe at school is associated with an 8‑point increase in mathematics scores, after accounting for learners’ and schools’ socio‑economic profile (OECD, 2023[7]).

Supporting 15-year-olds to become confident, independent learners

One of the key goals of the Curriculum for Wales is to support the country’s young people to become ambitious, capable learners and confident individuals who are ready to learn throughout their lives (Welsh Government, 2021[2]). Schools have an essential role in enabling young people to acquire the independence, motivation and organisational skills that underpin this goal. Data from PISA provides important insights for Wales around the current learning context of 15‑year-olds, highlighting areas that are important to prioritise as the new curriculum is implemented.

Learners in Wales lack confidence for independent learning

PISA 2022 asked 15-year-olds about their level of confidence in learning independently if their school building were to close. Learners’ confidence for self-directed learning in Wales are some of the lowest across the OECD – only 46.2% of 15-year-olds in Wales report feeling confident at motivating themselves to do school work on their own (OECD, 2023[7]) (Figure 4.7). While learners’ reflections on their independent study levels were made in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, school closures are not the only reason why learners might have to study independently. Being able to independently do homework after school, work on a project and revise for examinations are all important skills.

Figure 4.7. Proportion of learners confident at motivating themselves to do school work on their own, in the event of a school building closure, PISA 2022
Copy link to Figure 4.7. Proportion of learners confident at motivating themselves to do school work on their own, in the event of a school building closure, PISA 2022

PISA 2022 shows that, compared with the OECD average, learners in Wales need more support to develop the skills they need to be confident at independent learning (Table 4.2). Learners in Wales report being significantly more likely to need reminders to keep focused than on average across the OECD. Learners in Wales are also less likely to report that they are confident independently planning for when to do school work or assessing their progress, compared with learners on average across the OECD (OECD, 2023[7]).

	Wales	OECD average	Difference between Wales and the OECD average
Finding learning resources online on my own	69.8	72.7	2.9
Completing schoolwork independently	68.3	71.5	3.2
Assessing my progress with learning	57.3	65.4	8.1
Planning when to do school work on my own	60.4	69.3	8.9
Focusing on school work without reminders	52.1	62.9	10.8
Motivating myself to do school work	46.2	58.1	-11.9

Source: OECD (2023[7]), PISA 2022 Results (Volume II): Learning During – and From – Disruption, “Table II.B1.2.5”, “Table II.B2.5”, https://doi.org/10.1787/a97db61c-en.

Learners in Wales have less study help than in other United Kingdom systems and many comparison systems

Providing scaffolding and support around independent study can help learners gain confidence and build effective techniques for learning on their own. Wales provides higher levels of some types of study help than the OECD average – a room to do their homework and staff providing help with homework. Yet, some of the highest performing systems across the OECD where curricula emphasise learner independence and autonomy, such as British Columbia (Canada) and Singapore, provide far more extensive levels of study help (OECD, 2023[7]) (Figure 4.8).

Across the types of study help reported in PISA, peer-to-peer tutoring is associated with the most positive increases in performance. On average across the OECD, after accounting for learners' and schools' socio‑economic profile, attending a school with peer-to-peer tutoring is associated with a 5‑points higher score in maths. In Wales, peer-to-peer tutoring is provided at rates lower (33.0%) than across the OECD on average (53.5%). The Curriculum for Wales already sets important aspirations to encourage progression and increasing learner effectiveness – through new Principles of Progression (Welsh Government, 2021[2]). PISA data from 2022 provides some insights for Wales on areas to prioritise as it works with teachers and schools to implement the Principles of Progression.

Figure 4.8. Percentage of learners in schools in comparison systems where different kinds of study help are provided
Copy link to Figure 4.8. Percentage of learners in schools in comparison systems where different kinds of study help are provided

The role of evaluation and quality assurance to support learning and pathways

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In Wales, the high level of school autonomy in 14-16 education, and the transition to non-compulsory education where there is no statutory curriculum at 16-18 creates a highly flexible context where education can potentially respond to diverse interests and needs. Yet, the comparatively low rates of participation in upper secondary suggest that not all learners in Wales have the support and opportunities they need to progress along cohesive and coherent pathways to the completion of upper secondary education at 18. Data about 15-year-olds at school suggests that they might benefit from stronger support to become confident, independent learners, which could support participation post-16. In this context, the section below discusses the value of an upper secondary completion measure for Wales to promote greater participation throughout 14-19 education and focus the system on a broader measure of achievement.

Quality assurance in the context of high curricula autonomy in Wales

Robust assessment policies are important, particularly when schools – such as in Wales – have high levels of autonomy, to monitor and ensure that schools are delivering teaching and learning in a way that equitably enables learners to progress in line with national expectations. Research suggests that while school autonomy can support quality teaching and learning, it must be accompanied by quality-assurance mechanisms (OECD, 2023[7]). Across the OECD, learners scored higher in mathematics in education systems where principals held more responsibility for the curriculum, and especially in education systems where mandatory standardised testing was used more frequently than on average across OECD countries (OECD, 2023[7])1. Robust assessment of learners as they are progressing through education provides accountability and provides schools and teachers with information to adapt teaching and learning to meet learners’ needs (OECD, 2013[24]).

Wales uses many key quality-assurance mechanisms

Wales makes greater use of all the quality-assurance mechanisms that PISA collects data on than systems on average across the OECD (Table 4.3). Almost all schools in Wales use teacher mentoring, systematic recording of learner test results and graduation rates and mandatory standardised tests at least once a year. The latter reflect the quality-assurance mechanisms which, when used at rates above the OECD average, are associated with above average maths performance (OECD, 2023[7]). However, Wales also uses some quality-assurance mechanisms which are not associated with improved performance such as written specifications of learner performance standards and public posting of maths achievement data. As Wales implements the Curriculum for Wales, it will be crucial to retain the country’s positive use of quality-assurance mechanisms to ensure that, in a diverse and more school-led context, all learners access quality learning.

	Difference in maths performance between systems with above OECD average and below OECD average use of the quality-assurance mechanism	Use of quality-assurance mechanisms in schools
		OECD average (ISCED 3) %	Wales %
Teacher mentoring	0.62	83.8	97.4
Systematic recording of learner test results and graduation rates	0.35	94.9	100.0
Observation of classes by inspectors or other persons external to the school	0.32	37.2	67.0
Mandatory standardised tests e.g. GCSEs	0.25	69.5	100.0
Internal evaluation/Self-evaluation	0.16	95.5	100.0
Tests or assessments of learner achievement	0.14	74.6	82.3
Systematic recording of data such as teacher or learner attendance and professional development	0.12	95.9	100.0
External evaluation	0.10	78.6	100.0
Mathematics achievement data are tracked over time by an administrative authority	0.09	47.5	75.1
Seeking written feedback from learners	0.09	75.6	89.4
Written specification of the school’s curricular profile and educational goals	0.06	94.0	100.0
Mathematics achievement data are provided directly to parents or guardians	0.01	75.6	82.6
Principal or senior staff observations of lessons	-0.01	78.9	94.6
Teacher peer review	-0.03	61.9	87.9
Implementation of a standardised policy for mathematics subjects	-0.05	68.4	94.0
Regular consultation aimed at school improvement with one or more experts over a period of at least six months	-0.10	56.6	98.2
Written specification of learner performance standards	-0.12	86.7	100.0
Mathematics achievement data are posted publicly	-0.16	12.7	21.4

Note: Note that OECD average includes all OECD countries with available data, including countries with a low proportion of sampled learners in ISCED 3.

Source: OECD (2023[7]), PISA 2022 Results (Volume II): Learning During – and From – Disruption, “Table II.B1.6.66”, “Table II.B1.6.63”, “Table II.B1.6.55”, “Table II.B1.6.39”, “Table II.B1.6.59”, “Table II.B1.6.52”, “Table II.B1.6.63”, “Table II.B1.6.60”, “Table II.B1.6.47”, “Table II.B1.6.65”, “Table II.B1.6.61”, “Table II.B1.6.48”, “Table II.B1.6.54”, “Table II.B1.6.53”, “Table II.B1.6.68”, “Table II.B1.6.67”, “Table II.B1.6.62”, “Table II.B1.6.46”, https://doi.org/10.1787/a97db61c-en.

Using data to drive a cohesive learner experience and work towards upper secondary completion

National and international data highlight a central challenge for Wales around participation in education and completion. Data from PISA shows that 15-year-olds are absent from school more frequently than in many other OECD systems (Figure 4.5) and enrolment data shows that learners in Wales start to leave schooling earlier than in many other OECD systems (Figure 4.3). Consequently, a lower share of young people in Wales complete a full cycle of upper secondary education. The Curriculum for Wales aspires for all young people to finish education with the ambition, capability and enterprise to contribute fully to life in Wales (Welsh Government, 2021[2]). Ensuring that all young people complete a full cycle of upper secondary education is key to achieving to those goals. The section below discusses the value for Wales of developing a broad learning indicator for accountability and to support the Curriculum for Wales’ aspirations for the country’s young people.

A measure of upper secondary completion is central for monitoring attainment, setting expectations and holding systems to account

In most OECD systems, learners are considered to have completed upper secondary education once they have achieved their upper secondary certificate via an ISCED 3 programme. The upper secondary certificate is therefore used to measure completion (Box 4.3 discusses different approaches to using certification to construct a completion measure). However, in Wales, no such single qualification exists. Learner achievement across multiple qualifications in Wales is currently included in a common measure across schools following the first phase of upper secondary education (14-16) – for the purposes of the interim Key Performance Measures. In the second phase of upper secondary (16‑18), colleges and sixth forms will tend to report on the share of learners achieving three A levels at A*-C or vocational qualifications, but the benchmark set by this approach might not reflect the key skills that all learners need.

Box 4.3. Different approaches for designing an upper secondary completion measure

Copy link to Box 4.3. Different approaches for designing an upper secondary completion measure

Countries take different approaches to defining and measuring completion, based on the design of the certificate(s) that learners achieve:

A completion measure can reflect both participation and achievement

British Columbia, for example, uses a six-year completion rate. This provides the percentage of British Columbia learners who graduate, with a BC Certificate of Graduation (“Dogwood”) or BC Adult Graduation Diploma (“Adult Dogwood”), within six years from the first time they enrol in Grade 8. By having a measure of completion which identifies the proportion of learners who complete based on those who started secondary school, policy-makers can clearly see how many learners are completing upper secondary education across the province and, more specifically, within school districts, individual schools and for different groups of learners, such as Indigenous learners and learners with Diverse Abilities or Disabilities.

A completion measure can be broken down to show attainment at different levels

In New Zealand, the ‘Tracked Year 11 cohort’ shows the qualifications learners attain over the three years of secondary education, including the National Certificate of Educational Achievement (NCEA) Level 1 (equivalent to GCSEs) through to NCEA Level 3 and attainment of University Entrance (the Award that learners can achieve to indicate they have achieved the minimum requirements to proceed directly to higher education).

Source: British Columbia Government (n.d.[25]), A Friendly Guide to the Six-Year Completion Rate, https://catalogue.data.gov.bc.ca/dataset/1c6256d0-c120-4de1-817b-fb291732f8a4/resource/98a1d3a8-e77e-4f60-af08-dbdc8a773992/download/a_friendly_guide_to_the_completion_rate.pdf (accessed 29 April 2024); New Zealand Qualifications Authority (2023[26]), Annual Report NCEA, University Entrance and New Zealand Scholarship Data and Statistics 2022, https://www2.nzqa.govt.nz/assets/NCEA/Secondary-school-and-NCEA/Annual-Reports-on-NCEA-New-Zealand-Scholarship-Data-Statistics/Annual-Report-on-NCEA-New-Zealand-Scholarship-Data-Statistics.pdf (accessed 7 December 2023).

A broad measure of learner completion across 14-18 could raise the importance nationally of engagement across the length of upper secondary

In Wales, learners’ performance in national examinations at 16 – GCSEs – have historically been used in the country’s Key Performance Measure to compare and assess the quality of schools (Welsh Government, 2019[27]). While examinations data are important for quality assurance, GCSEs only occur mid-way through upper secondary education and are based on individual subjects. Most other systems across the OECD use the share of learners who pass the national examination or certificate across a broad range of subjects and completion of upper secondary education to monitor of learner achievement and system performance. In Wales, moving away from granular subject-level achievement might encourage schools and the education system to focus more widely on the bigger picture of learner engagement and participation across the full phase of upper secondary education.

At present, understanding the skills that young people achieve by the end of upper secondary education in Wales is challenging because there is not a single completion certificate. Learners in general education take AS/A Levels. Typically, young people take three AS/A Levels because this is the requirement set by tertiary education, but a single AS/A level qualification is an ISCED 3 qualification and theoretically provides completion of upper secondary education. A wide variety of vocational qualifications are offered at ISCED 2 and 3 – taken in further education colleges but also through work-based learning – with only some of them providing full completion of ISCED 3.

How many young people currently reach the level of upper secondary completion in Wales?

Understanding how many young people are achieving qualifications at the level which counts for upper secondary completion is important to understand how effective this stage of education is in supporting all learners to acquire the skills that they need for the future. At present, Wales has data about completion rates for individual qualifications, such as AS/A levels or vocational qualifications, but this is not presented in terms of the whole cohort who started upper secondary education at age14. To help address this gap, this report has estimated that around 48% of young people who enter post-16 education programmes complete a programme equivalent to upper secondary completion according to the internationally comparative ISCED framework (Level 3 on Credit and Qualifications Framework in Wales, CQFW). The data used for the calculation is provided in Annex Table 4.A.1.

When considering the total number of entering upper secondary education at age 14 – the start of upper secondary – the same data suggest that approximately 43% achieve general and vocational qualifications at CQFW Level 3 by around 18. For these calculations, learners who complete a post-16 programme at a level below CQFW Level 3 are not considered to have ‘completed’ upper secondary education. It should be noted that these data are approximate and incomplete. Taking into account learners who first start CQFW Level 3 programmes (AS/A Levels and vocational programmes, including apprenticeships) beyond age 16, i.e. at ages 17, 18 or 19, the completion rate by the time learners are approximately age 19 may rise to as high as 68% (Welsh Government, 2024[28])2. This calculation should be treated as an approximation, as data comes from different sources. A more accurately calculated completion rate would track learners as they age and progress, whereas all the sources for this calculation come from 2021/2022 or 2022/2023, meaning that changes in cohort size or changing behaviour in pathways choices may distort the calculation somewhat.

The estimated completion rates for Wales appear relatively low compared with other OECD systems. Figure 4.9 presents comparative data on upper secondary for countries who collect and report these data. About 80% of young people in general education programmes in Canada, Estonia and Sweden complete their upper secondary programme within the theoretical timeframe.

Figure 4.9. Upper secondary completion rates, by timeframe and programme orientation on entry (2021)
Copy link to Figure 4.9. Upper secondary completion rates, by timeframe and programme orientation on entry (2021)

In per cent, true cohort data only

Considering what the bar for “completion” is in Wales

In Wales, as well as in England and Northern Ireland, a consequence of having no nationally defined standard for completion (i.e. what and how many qualifications are required) means that the systems focus on achieving three A levels at A*-C, which is a measure inherited from tertiary education institutions for selection. It is neither a national articulation of the skills that the economy needs, nor a benchmark that has been determined to be both ambitious yet achievable for all learners. Rather, it is a measure that aims to facilitate selection which, arguably, results in a benchmark that sets a high level of demand that is purposely intended not to be achievable for all learners. This might explain why this report’s estimated completion calculation for Wales (43-48%) – based on learners achieving three A levels at A*-C or an equivalently levelled vocational education programme – appears comparatively very low from an international perspective, since learners are working towards a standard which is set for tertiary selection rather than upper secondary completion. By contrast, in New Zealand, where full completion of upper secondary education (NCEA Level 2) is distinct from tertiary entrance requirements (NCEA Level 3 with a ‘University Entrance’ award), more learners achieve upper secondary completion than tertiary entrance: in 2023, 73.2% of Year 12 learners achieved NCEA Level 2 and 49.7% of Year 13 learners achieved NCEA Level 3 with ‘University Entrance’ (New Zealand Qualifications Authority, 2024[30]).

Similarly, the high shares of young people in vocational programmes that do not provide full completion of ISCED 3 (69% of 16-year-olds for programmes completed in 2022/2023) might suggest that the main ISCED 3 programmes do not provide sufficient differentiation for the cohort (Chapter 3 discusses vocational qualifications) (Welsh Government, 2024[28])3. Setting a high level of demand might also contribute to making the transition from pre- to post-16 education challenging for learners who must rapidly adapt to a higher level of demand and/or might not identify qualifications that are appealing and appropriate for them. Ultimately, Wales might need to purposefully consider and potentially revise which qualifications signal completion so that there are ambitious and achievable goals for all learners.

Wales could consider developing a measure of upper secondary completion based upon learners achieving a certain number of qualifications (or qualifications equivalent to a certain number of learning hours) at a certain level. The exact number and level of qualifications that learners are expected to complete by age 18/19 should be subject to a national conversation about what it means to complete upper secondary education. This could then become a consistent measure for learners following both general and vocational programmes in both schools, further education and work-based settings.

A completion measure would help to create collective accountability for learner experiences across pre- and post-16 education

Having learners develop the knowledge, skills and capabilities they need for life beyond secondary education is the ultimate mission of upper secondary education. A holistic and broadly encompassing measure of upper secondary completion provides key information about how far a system is supporting its learners to develop the knowledge, skills and capabilities they need for life beyond school. Such a measure in Wales could take the focus away from individual subject-level outcomes and instead place greater focus more broadly on young people’s development of essential skills for work and life across the entire upper secondary period.

As a part of the culture shift that the Curriculum for Wales aims to encourage, the 14 to 16 Learner Entitlement sets out a framework for what all learners should experience and develop while in 14-16 education (Welsh Government, 2024[4]). This encourages practitioners to see their contribution to learners’ holistic development rather than to view their role in isolation as delivering one aspect of the curriculum. The framework is explicitly designed to be inclusive of a range of learner needs, abilities and the qualification levels at which they might be learning and achieving (Welsh Government, 2024[6]).

While frameworks such as the Learner Entitlement, which is adaptable and takes into account the varying contexts within school communities, will be useful for practitioners, at a system level, policymakers, ministers and the general public still need to be able to monitor how far the system is supporting all learners develop key skills and complete schooling. It is from this system-level perspective that fixed measures are valuable and commonly used by other OECD systems to set goals and provide public accountability. As Wales thinks about the reporting, accountability and school improvement system that will be used in the future alongside the Curriculum for Wales, the country should consider which indicators would truly reflect what schools need to be doing to ensure that their learners have the best chance to succeed in life after school.

Key insights and policy pointers: equitable learning experiences across and within different educational institutions

Copy link to Key insights and policy pointers: equitable learning experiences across and within different educational institutions

Based on the analysis and evidence presented above in this chapter, this section summarises the key policy insights and provides policy pointers for using data to work towards a shared vision for upper secondary education, whereby all learners are supported to achieve key qualifications to support their next steps. Table 4.4 provides an overview of the policy insights and pointers.

Participation and engagement are challenges in upper secondary in Wales

To learn, young people must be at school, feel secure in their learning environment and not be distracted. PISA 2022 data reveals that many learners in Wales are not regularly and consistently attending school, do not feel safe and experience disruptions in the classroom. As policymakers and schools focus on implementing the Curriculum for Wales, it will be important that these fundamentals are given continued emphasis and that they are seen as integral to the successful implementation of a new approach to teaching and learning in Wales.

Policy pointers for Wales

While implementing the Curriculum for Wales, schools and teachers should be supported to look beyond the goals for teaching and learning and to consider the broader experiences that learners have in the classroom and in the school environment. Given that the ‘four purposes’ focus on learners’ broader development as individuals, ensuring that school is a community where all learners feel welcome is in line with the vision of the Curriculum for Wales. Ways to achieve this might include:

Developing measures to collect information about learners’ experiences in their classes and school environments.
- Integrating these measures into school evaluation and self‑improvement processes to identify and address factors hindering attendance, providing a baseline for improvement.
- Reducing low attendance pre-16 is particularly important given attendance and learning progress at this stage is a pre-requisite (via GCSE results) to effectively engage in post-16 education and complete upper secondary education.
Wales might conduct further research to understand the drivers of low attendance in the 14-16 phase, for example by undertaking greater analysis of the country’s PISA data. Through further analysis of Wales’ and comparison systems’ PISA data, Wales could seek to better understand the learning environment and differences in learners’ perceptions and experiences in education, to better support attendance in lower secondary (i.e. from Year 7 / age 11 onwards) and in the first phase of upper secondary education.

Upper secondary education in Wales is highly flexible, autonomous and varied

Typically, in upper secondary education internationally, the offer education institutions provide is regulated centrally by either influencing which programmes and qualifications institutions can provide or by setting requirements for programme completion and certification that span a learner’s whole programme (as is the case in comparison systems such as Sweden and the Netherlands). In contrast in Wales, there are neither constraints on which qualifications must be offered by institutions nor which combinations of qualifications learners must take to comprise a programme. While in many cases, young people in Wales engage in structured, coherent programmes that support strong progression along pathways, the design of the system leaves the possibility that not everyone in Wales has equal access to the same range of options and pathways. Compared with other systems, such as Sweden, which put in place mechanisms to ensure that the various options learners can access are designed to match labour market and local economic needs, the high-levels of choice and autonomy given to both learners and their education institutions leaves such alignment a bit more to chance. This is particularly important given learners’ decisions about what they will study are closely interrelated with decisions about where they will study and, in some parts of Wales, learners have varying levels of access to the different types of settings (Estyn, 2022[31]).

Policy pointers for Wales

Create incentives for schools and colleges to work together to ensure learners have more information and awareness about the range of programmes on offer and where they lead and that learners can access customised support.
As part of accountability mechanisms that prioritise the successful completion of a full cycle of upper secondary education, consider measuring the contribution of 14-16 settings towards full completion, even when learners are no longer enrolled at these settings at the end of upper secondary education. Outcomes at age 18/19 would then be seen as a reflection on how well 14-16 education prepares and supports learners to transition to the next phase of education.

Using data to measure access to key learning and support for completion

While the four purposes of the Curriculum for Wales set out the high-level vision for the system to work towards, schools in Wales also need tangible and concrete indicators to measure their success in educating learners and preparing them for their next steps. Current quality-assurance measures will need to be adapted to the Curriculum for Wales and it will be important to include a focus on learners’ confidence for independent learning and their holistic development, since these aspects are central to the Curriculum for Wales and key foundations for learning.

Historically, the Key Performance Measures have provided a concrete measure of ‘success’ that all schools aim to work towards. However, they focus on individual subject achievement and do not capture a broader, more holistic measure of learner achievement. Given that Wales is now developing a new school information ecosystem and deciding what information should be used for school self-evaluation and improvement, Wales can consider what milestones towards the four purposes learners should aim to reach by the key transition points of 16 and 18/19 (Welsh Government, 2024[6]).

Creating an overall measure of upper secondary completion, based on a national articulation of what all learners should achieve by the end of upper secondary education, is important for ensuring the whole system is working towards achievable and ambitious objectives for all learners. Indicators related to how well schools support this preparation may reinforce this goal and more greatly enable schools’ and the system’s continuous improvement in this direction.

Policy pointers for Wales

Wales should consider developing a consistent measure of completion to provide a clear target for schools and learners to work towards by age 18/19. Considerations and suggestions for this measure include:

Reflect and establish a national consensus on what ‘completing’ upper secondary education should mean in terms of competencies, and work towards a common understanding of this benchmark that is appropriate for learners intending, and not, to go to tertiary education.
Develop a completion measure to identify the proportion of learners who ‘complete’ upper secondary education by age 18/19:
- Ensure the completion measure is based on the full cohort who enter upper secondary education at age 14 (not just those who enter post-16 education).
- Use the completion measure to identify how many learners, meet the requirements for completion after four, six or eight years, to include learners who need more time to complete their education.
- The completion measure should be consistent for all learners, regardless of whether they are taking general or vocational programmes (or both), across schools, further education colleges and work-based settings.

Key Insights	Policy Pointers for Wales	Relevant models and examples from other systems
Participation and engagement are challenges in upper secondary education in Wales	As policymakers and schools in Wales focus on implementing the Curriculum for Wales, on-going emphasis should be given to assuring that essential fundamentals – like a safe learning environment and removal of distractions – for learning are in place	Opportunity for further research and analysis of Wales’ and comparison systems’ PISA data
Upper secondary education in Wales is highly flexible, autonomous and varied	Wales can consider how to better enable schools and colleges to work together to support learners as they prepare for and undertake transitions, to ensure no learners slip through the cracks	In Sweden and the Netherlands, school autonomy to offer different combinations of programmes/specialisations is offset by more structured programmes
Using data to measure what all learners should be entitled to achieve by age 18/19	As Wales develops a replacement for the Key Performance Measures, Wales should consider what data and information would best support schools’ self-improvement, what data and information would be most appropriate for parents and families to use when considering different schools and how an overall completion measure could provide a concrete goals for schools and learners to work towards.	In all OECD comparison systems referenced in this report, learners complete an upper secondary certificate which counts for upper secondary completion – examples provided for British Columbia (6-year tracked cohort), and New Zealand (data released publicly showing achievement across NCEA Levels 1-3)

References

[25] British Columbia Government (n.d.), A Friendly Guide to the Six-Year Completion Rate, https://catalogue.data.gov.bc.ca/dataset/1c6256d0-c120-4de1-817b-fb291732f8a4/resource/98a1d3a8-e77e-4f60-af08-dbdc8a773992/download/a_friendly_guide_to_the_completion_rate.pdf (accessed on 29 April 2024).

[23] Careers Wales (n.d.), Pupil Destinations, https://careerswales.gov.wales/education-and-teaching-professionals/pupil-destinations (accessed on 30 October 2023).

[8] Estonia Government Ministry of Education and Research (2022), Pre-school, basic and secondary education, https://www.hm.ee/en/education-research-and-youth-affairs/general-education/general-education-estonia#curricula (accessed on 29 August 2023).

[9] Estonia Government Ministry of Education and Research (n.d.), Transition to Estonian-language education, https://www.hm.ee/en/node/234#schools (accessed on 8 July 2023).

[31] Estyn (2022), 16-19 Curriculum: A review of the current 16-19 curriculum in Wales, https://www.estyn.gov.wales/thematic-report/review-current-16-19-curriculum-wales (accessed on 9 November 2023).

[14] European Commission Eurydice (2024), Portugal, https://eurydice.eacea.ec.europa.eu/national-education-systems/portugal/overview (accessed on 18 December 2024).

[13] European Commission Eurydice (2023), Netherlands Secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education, https://eurydice.eacea.ec.europa.eu/national-education-systems/netherlands/organisation-vocational-upper-secondary-education-mbo (accessed on 18 December 2024).

[10] Ireland Citizens Information Board (2023), Choosing a post-primary school, https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/education/primary-and-post-primary-education/going-to-post-primary-school/types-of-post-primary-school/ (accessed on 18 December 2024).

[11] Ireland Department of Education (2023), Statistical Bulletin - July 2023, https://assets.gov.ie/263000/f2932136-6191-4e56-9af0-5b315e85702f.pdf (accessed on 30 January 2025).

[12] Netherlands Government (2023), Aantal vo-scholen [Number of pre-vocational schools], https://www.ocwincijfers.nl/sectoren/voortgezet-onderwijs/instellingen/aantal-vo-scholen (accessed on 18 December 2024).

[30] New Zealand Qualifications Authority (2024), Annual Report NCEA, University Entrance and NZ Scholarship Data and Statistics 2023, https://www2.nzqa.govt.nz/assets/NCEA/Secondary-school-and-NCEA/Annual-Reports-NCEA-Scholarship-Data/2023-Annual-Report-NCEA-UE-and-NZ-Scholarship-Data-and-Statistics.pdf.

[26] New Zealand Qualifications Authority (2023), Annual Report NCEA, University Entrance and New Zealand Scholarship Data and Statistics 2022, https://www2.nzqa.govt.nz/assets/NCEA/Secondary-school-and-NCEA/Annual-Reports-on-NCEA-New-Zealand-Scholarship-Data-Statistics/Annual-Report-on-NCEA-New-Zealand-Scholarship-Data-Statistics.pdf (accessed on 7 December 2023).

[29] OECD (2023), Education at a Glance 2023: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/e13bef63-en.

[7] OECD (2023), PISA 2022 Results (Volume II): Learning During – and From – Disruption, PISA, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/a97db61c-en.

[21] OECD (2022), Education at a Glance 2022: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/3197152b-en.

[24] OECD (2013), Synergies for Better Learning: An International Perspective on Evaluation and Assessment, OECD Reviews of Evaluation and Assessment in Education, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264190658-en.

[20] Perico E Santos, A. (2023), “Managing student transitions into upper secondary pathways”, OECD Education Working Papers, No. 289, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/663d6f7b-en.

[3] Qualifications Wales (2023), Made-for-Wales GCSEs: Main Consultation Report, https://qualifications.wales/media/dkcisr1u/made-for-wales-gcses-main-consultation-report-january-2024-update.pdf.

[15] Singapore Ministry of Education (n.d.), Education Statistics Digest, https://www.moe.gov.sg/about-us/publications/education-statistics-digest (accessed on 31 August 2023).

[17] Skolverket [Swedish National Agency for Education] (2023), Regional planering och dimensionering av gymnasial utbildning [Regional planning and dimensioning of upper secondary education], https://www.skolverket.se/regler-och-ansvar/forandringar-inom-skolomradet/regional-planering-och-dimensionering-av-gymnasial-utbildning (accessed on 12 December 2023).

[16] Skolverket [Swedish National Agency for Education] (n.d.), Mother tongue and Swedish as second language, https://utbildningsguiden.skolverket.se/languages/english-engelska/modersmal (accessed on 18 December 2024).

[1] Stronati, C. (2023), “The design of upper secondary education across OECD countries: Managing choice, coherence and specialisation”, OECD Education Working Papers, No. 288, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/158101f0-en.

[22] United Kingdom Office for National Statistics (2022), 2021 Census Data (NOMIS), https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/sources/census_2021 (accessed on 30 January 2025).

[6] Welsh Government (2024), 14 to 16 learning under the Curriculum for Wales, https://www.gov.wales/14-16-learning-under-curriculum-wales-html (accessed on 29 April 2024).

[28] Welsh Government (2024), Consistent performance measures for post-16 learning (achievement): August 2022 to July 2023, https://www.gov.wales/consistent-performance-measures-post-16-learning-achievement (accessed on 29 April 2024).

[4] Welsh Government (2024), The 14 to 16 learner entitlement, https://hwb.gov.wales/curriculum-for-wales/14-to-16-learning-guidance#the-14-to-16-learner-entitlement (accessed on 16 December 2024).

[5] Welsh Government (2023), About the Commission for Tertiary Education and Research (CTER), https://www.gov.wales/commission-tertiary-education-and-research/about-commission-tertiary-education-and-research-cter (accessed on 29 April 2024).

[2] Welsh Government (2021), Curriculum for Wales, https://hwb.gov.wales/curriculum-for-wales/.

[27] Welsh Government (2019), Interim Key Stage 4 School Performance Arrangements: Measures and Analyses, https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2019-07/interim-key-stage-4-school-performance-arrangements-measures-and-analyses.pdf.

[19] Welsh Government (2014), Learning and Skills (Wales) Measure 2009, https://hwb.gov.wales/storage/be15675b-0c12-47c9-b48c-862c54e5106d/learning-and-skills-measure-2009-local-curriculum-for-pupils-key-stage-4.pdf.

[18] Welsh Government StatsWales (2022), Schools (Pupil Level Annual School Census (PLASC)), https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Education-and-Skills/Schools-and-Teachers/Schools-Census/Pupil-Level-Annual-School-Census/Schools (accessed on 17 January 2024).

[32] Welsh Government StatsWales (2022), Unique learners enrolled at further education institutions by age group, mode of learning and level, https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Education-and-Skills/Post-16-Education-and-Training/Further-Education-and-Work-Based-Learning/Learners/Further-Education/uniquelearnersenrolledfurthereducationinstitutions-by-age-modeoflearning-level (accessed on 30 January 2025).

[33] Welsh Government StatsWales (n.d.), Success in apprenticeships, by academic year and level, https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Education-and-Skills/Post-16-Education-and-Training/Further-Education-and-Work-Based-Learning/Outcomes/Work-Based-Learning/successapprenticeships-by-level-year (accessed on 30 January 2025).

Annex 4.A. Estimating completion of upper secondary education

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Total number of 14-year-old learners in Wales (enrolment data, 2021/2022)	33625
Total number of 16-year-olds starting programmes	30220
Total number of 16-year-olds starting programmes in schools or further education colleges (2022/2023)	29225
Total number of 16-year-olds starting apprenticeships (2021/2022)	995
Total number of learners who start programmes at age 16 and complete upper secondary education in the theoretical timeframe	14525
Learners achieving 3 or more A2 at A* to E (2022/2023)	11160
Level 3 Vocational ‘completions’* (2022/2023)	3285
Learners successfully completing Apprenticeships and Higher Apprenticeships (2022/2023)	80
Learners who complete upper secondary by age 18/19, based on the total number of learners enrolled in post-16 programmes at age 16	48%
Learners who complete upper secondary by age 18/19, based on the total number of learners enrolled at age 14	43%

Note: *Level 3 vocational completions does not necessarily mean that learners passed their main qualifications, it just means that they finished their programme and submitted work based on all the requirements.

The number of 18-year-olds successfully completing Foundation Apprenticeships is not included, as these do not give full completion of upper secondary education.

Source: Welsh Government (2024[28]), Consistent performance measures for post-16 learning (achievement): August 2022 to July 2023, https://www.gov.wales/consistent-performance-measures-post-16-learning-achievement 4 (accessed 29 April 2024); Welsh Government StatsWales (2022[18]), Pupil level annual school census 2021/2022, https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Education-and-Skills/Schools-and-Teachers/Schools-Census/Pupil-Level-Annual-School-Census/Pupils (accessed 17 January 2024); Welsh Government StatsWales (2022[32]), Unique learners enrolled at further education institutions by age group, mode of learning and level, https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Education-and-Skills/Post-16-Education-and-Training/Further-Education-and-Work-Based-Learning/Learners/Further-Education/uniquelearnersenrolledfurthereducationinstitutions-by-age-modeoflearning-level (accessed 30 January 2025); Welsh Government StatsWales (n.d.[33]), Success in apprenticeships, by academic year and level, https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Education-and-Skills/Post-16-Education-and-Training/Further-Education-and-Work-Based-Learning/Outcomes/Work-Based-Learning/successapprenticeships-by-level-year (accessed 30 January 2025).

Notes

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← 1. When responding to the PISA school questionnaire, principals in Wales were given GCSEs as an example of mandatory standardised testing.

← 2. Additional data supplied by the Welsh Government. This calculation counts the number of programme completions and so this second calculation including, learners up to age 19, may be inflated as learners who achieve multiple CQFW Level 3 programmes are counted more than once i.e. learners who complete AS/A Levels and then complete a Level 3 vocational programme by the time they are 19 would be counted twice.

← 3. Additional data supplied by the Welsh Government.

← 4. Additional data supplied by the Welsh Government.


	Settings which mostly deliver general education	Settings which deliver vocational education	Settings which deliver both general and vocational options	Settings which may deliver both or a mix of general and vocational options, but it depends on the setting
British Columbia	Secondary schools (although vocational options may be delivered in partnership)
Estonia	General education schools (Gymnasiums)	Vocational educational institutions
Ireland	Secondary schools/Post-primary schools
The Netherlands		Secondary vocational education institutions (MBO)		Secondary schools providing some combination of VMBO, Practical Education, HAVO and/or VWO
New Zealand	Secondary schools (although vocational options may be delivered in partnership)
Portugal		Vocational school	Secondary schools providing general and vocational education
Singapore	Secondary schools Junior Colleges Millenia Institute	Polytechnics Institute of Technical Education
Sweden				Upper secondary schools providing some combination of general and/or vocational education (Gymnasiums)
Wales				Secondary schools and further education Colleges

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