The total fertility rate (TFR) gives an indication of the number of children an average woman will have in her lifetime. The size of the population remains stable if the total fertility rate is a little over two, allowing for some mortality during infancy and childhood. This so-called “replacement rate” is around 2.1 children per women for industrialised countries but it may be higher for poorer countries.
Total fertility rates vary considerably in the Asia/Pacific region (Figure 3.4). In 2022, the TFR across the region was on average 2.2 children per woman aged 15‑49, just above the replacement rate, and higher than the OECD average of 1.5 children per woman. In 2022, the highest TFRs among Asia/Pacific countries were found in Samoa and Pakistan, with an average of more than 3.5 children per woman. By contrast, in 2022, fertility rates were lowest in China, Macau (China) and Singapore, at around one child per woman, and Korea and Hong Kong (China) at around 0.7 children per woman.
Birth rates have declined sharply over the past decades. The TFR average across the Asia/Pacific region has fallen by more than 3 children per woman from 1970 to 2022. In 2022, less than half of the countries in the Asia/Pacific region had TFRs equal to or higher than the replacement rate (Figure 3.4). In 1995, two‑thirds of the countries had a TFR over 2.1, while in 1970, all territories but Macau (China) did. The largest declines between 1970 and 2022 took place in Bhutan, China, Hong Kong (China), Korea, the Maldives and Thailand, where TFRs have decreased by more than 76% in the last 50 years. OECD countries in the region, with the only exception of Korea, experienced a slower decline in the TFR at less than 1.5 children per woman on average (reduction of less than 50%). Georgia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia were the only countries where the TFR was the same or higher in 2022 than in 1995.
Women in poor economies have much higher fertility rates than women in wealthier economies (Figure 3.5). In 2022, women in OECD and East Asian economies with the highest levels of GDP per capita tended to have fewer children (e.g. Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Hong Kong (China), Macau (China) and/or Singapore), compared with the greater Asia/Pacific region. As more women gain higher educational attainment and pursue their career plans, they tend to postpone having children and/or have fewer children altogether.
The share of people living in extreme poverty tends to be higher in countries with higher adolescent fertility rates. (Figure 3.6). In China and the Maldives, where adolescent fertility rates are low, the share of the population living in extreme poverty – “less than USD 2.15 per day” is almost zero. In Bangladesh and Lao PDR, where adolescent fertility rates are the highest – exceeding 70 births per 1 000 women – the share of people living in extreme poverty is also among the highest in the region, at over 5%.
