In 2020, countries in the Asia/Pacific region had on average 0.1 people over the age 65 for every person of working age (Figure 3.13, Panel A). This is less than half of the OECD average. The Maldives, Tajikistan and Papua New Guinea top the list with less than 0.06 people over the age of 65 for every person of working age: a stark contrast to Japan’s 1:2 ratio. Within the Asia/Pacific region, OECD countries such as Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand have among the highest demographic old-age to working-age ratios: in these countries life expectancy is high (Figure 5.1), while fertility rates are low, particularly in Japan and Korea (Figure 3.13).
Demographic old-age to working-age ratios are projected to more than double by 2060 (Figure 3.13 Panel B). Four OECD countries in the region already have high demographic old-age to working-age ratios and these will increase further, in particular in Korea, from 0.22 in 2020 to 0.9 persons over the age of 65 to one working-age citizen in 2060. Other economies in the region will also experience rapidly ageing societies. For example, the demographic old-age to working-age ratio in the Maldives will increase from 0.06 in 2020 to 0.68 in 2060, and in Hong Kong (China) and Singapore, the demographic old-age to working-age ratios are projected to increase to 0.93 and 0.66 respectively by 2060, well above the OECD average of 0.54.
The increase in the elderly population stems from a rise in life expectancy due to improved health and declining birth rates. Underlying projected demographic trends do differ across countries (Figure 3.14.), but the proportion of people aged 65 and over is estimated to at least double in most economies between 2020 and 2060. By 2060, it is estimated that at least 20% of the population in Asia/Pacific economies will be aged 65 or older. By 2060 over 40% of the population in Hong Kong (China) and Korea is estimated to be 65 or older, the highest proportion of all countries in the region.
There are economic and social implications of demographic change. A high demographic old-age to working-age ratio provides some indication of the “dependency burden on the working population, as it is assumed that the economically active proportion of the population will need to provide health, education, pension, and social security benefits for the inactive population, either directly through family support mechanisms or indirectly through taxation.
