Binary logistic regression analysis enables the estimation of the relationship between one or more independent (or explanatory) variables and the dependent (or outcome) variable with two categories. The regression coefficient () of a logistic regression is the estimated increase in the log odds of the outcome per unit increase in the value of the predictor variable.
More formally, let be the binary outcome variable indicating no/yes with 0/1, and be the probability of to be 1, so that . Let be a set of explanatory variables. Then, the logistic regression of on estimates parameter values for via the maximum likelihood method of the following equation:
Additionally, the exponential function of the regression coefficient is obtained, which is the odds ratio () associated with a one-unit increase in the explanatory variable. Then, in terms of probabilities, the equation above is translated into the following:
The transformation of log odds () into odds ratios makes the data more interpretable in terms of probability. The odds ratio () is a measure of the relative likelihood of a particular outcome when a specific condition is present (the antecedent) compared to when it is not. The odds ratio for observing the outcome when an antecedent is present is:
where represents the “odds” of observing the outcome when the antecedent is present, and represents the “odds” of observing the outcome when the antecedent is not present. The reader should note here that odds are not probabilities, but relative probabilities, i.e. the ratio between the probability of an event occurring over the probability of the event not occurring. This distinction matters especially when the probability of the outcome is high. When the probability of the outcome is low, .
An odds ratio below one indicates that the odds of the outcome decrease when the value of the explanatory variable increases by 1; an odds ratio above 1 indicates that the odds of the outcome increase when the value of the explanatory variable increases by 1; and an odds ratio equal to 1 indicates that the odds of the outcome are not related to changes in the explanatory variable.
For instance, if the association between being a female teacher and working part-time is being analysed, the following odds ratios would be interpreted as:
0.2: Female teachers have 80% lower odds of working part-time than male teachers.
0.5: Female teachers have half the odds of working part-time than male teachers.
0.9: Female teachers have 10% lower odds of working part-time than male teachers.
1: Female and male teachers have equal odds of working part-time than male teachers.
1.1: Female teachers have 10% higher odds of working part-time than male teachers.
2: Female teachers have twice the odds of working part-time than male teachers.
5: Female teachers have five times the odds of working part-time than male teachers.
A bold character indicates that the odds ratios are statistically significantly different from 1 at the 95% confidence level. To compute statistical significance around the value of 1 (the null hypothesis), the odds-ratio statistic is assumed to follow a log-normal distribution, rather than a normal distribution, under the null hypothesis.