Quantifying the Effects of Trade Liberalisation in Brazil

Brazil remains a fairly closed economy, with small trade flows relative to its share of world income. This paper explores the effects of three possible policy reforms to strengthen Brazil’s integration into global trade: a reduction in import tariffs, less local content requirements and a full zero-rating of exports in indirect taxes. A simulation analysis using the OECD Multi-Region Trade CGE model suggests that current policies are holding back exports, production and investment in Brazil. The model simulations suggest significant scope for trade policy reforms to strengthen industrial development and export competitiveness. Results also show that the expansion of investment and production would be accompanied by significant employment gains. Moreover, employment growth is higher for low-skilled occupations, implying that a major trade and tax policy reform aiming at liberalising trade flows would particularly help those at the lower end of the income distribution.