OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025‑2034

10. Other products

Abstract

This chapter provides a market overview and description of the current market situation for roots and tubers (i.e. cassava, potato, yams, sweet potato, taro), pulses (field peas, broad beans, chickpeas, lentils), and banana and major tropical fruits (mango, mangosteen and guava, pineapple, avocado, and papaya) markets. It also provides the medium term (2025-34) projections for production, consumption and trade for these products and describes the main drivers shaping these projections.

10.1. Roots and tubers

10.1.1. Market overview

Roots and tubers are plants that yield starch derived from either their roots (e.g. cassava, sweet potato and yams) or stems (e.g. potatoes and taro). They are destined mainly for human consumption (as such or in processed form) and, like most other staple crops, can also be used for animal feed or industrial processing, notably in the manufacturing of starch, alcohol, and fermented beverages. Unless they are processed, they are highly perishable once harvested due to their low dry-matter content (20 to 40%). This limits the opportunities for trade and storage and makes roots and tubers a particularly important commodity in terms of food loss and waste.

Within the roots and tubers family, potato dominates in worldwide production, with cassava a distant second. Potato is the fourth most important food crop after maize, wheat and rice. This crop provides more calories, grows more quickly, uses less land, and can be cultivated in a broad range of climates. However, potato production, which forms the bulk of the root and tuber sectors in high-income countries, has been stagnating over the last decade, with growth in production falling well below that of population.

Output of cassava is growing three times faster than potatoes and about one and half times faster than population. Cultivated mainly in the tropical belt and in some of the world’s poorest regions, cassava production has almost doubled over two decades. Once considered a subsistence crop, it is now seen as a commodity and key for value-addition, rural development and poverty alleviation, food security, energy security, and for bringing important macroeconomic benefits. These factors are driving rapid commercialisation of this crop and major investments in upscaling the processing of cassava, both which have contributed significantly to its global expansion.

10.1.2. Current market situation

The largest producing regions of roots and tubers in the base period are Asia (118 Mt) and Africa (97 Mt). In Sub Saharan Africa, roots play a significant role as a staple crop. Globally, about 143 Mt are used as food, 44 Mt as feed, and 22 Mt for other uses, mostly biofuel and starch. As the perishable nature of these crops prohibits significant international trade in fresh produce, countries tend to be self-sufficient. About 20 Mt are currently traded internationally, mostly in processed or dried form. Thailand is the leading exporter, followed far behind by Viet Nam, and the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”) is the main destination.

Global production of roots and tubers reached 265 Mt (dry matter) in the base period (2022-24). About 7 Mt has been added annually in the past years and consumed mainly as food. The prices of roots and tubers (measured by the Cassava Thailand export unit value) decreased in 2024 as Chinese demand was lower. Thailand production and exports were affected by the decreasing demand in China, but also by El Niño‑induced drought and cassava mosaic virus.

10.1.3. Main drivers for projections

Producing cassava requires few inputs and affords farmers greater flexibility in terms of timing the harvest as the crop can be left in the ground well after reaching maturation. Cassava’s tolerance to erratic weather conditions, including drought, makes it an important part of adaptation strategies. Compared to other staples, cassava competes favourably in terms of price and diversity of uses. In the form of High-Quality Cassava Flour (HQCF), cassava is increasingly targeted by governments in Africa as a strategic food crop which does not exhibit the same levels of price volatility as other imported cereals.

Mandatory blending with wheat flour, e.g. in Nigeria, helps reduce the volume of wheat imports, thereby lowering import costs and conserving foreign exchange. The drive towards energy security in Asia, combined with mandatory blending requirements with gasoline, has led to the establishment of ethanol distilleries that use cassava as a feedstock. With regard to trade, processed cassava manages to compete successfully in the global arena, e.g. with maize-based starch and cereals for animal feeding applications.

Potatoes are mostly used for food and are a substantial component of diets in high‑income regions, particularly in Europe and North America. As overall food intake of potato in these regions is very high and may have reached saturation, the scope for consumption increases to outpace population growth remains limited. However, low‑income regions provide some growth momentum to potato production at the world level.

Global sweet potato cultivation has declined in recent years, mostly due to a sharp decline in acreage (which shows no sign of abating) in China, the world’s foremost producer. Food demand largely defines the growth potential of sweet potato and other less prominent roots and tuber crops given the limited commercial viability for diversified usage. Consequently, consumer preferences along with prices play important roles in shaping consumption.

10.1.4. Projection highlights

World production and utilization of roots and tubers is projected to increase by about 25% over the next decade. Production growth in low-income regions could reach 3% p.a. whilst an annual growth of only 0.4% is expected in high-income countries. Global land use is projected to increase by 6 Mha to 71 Mha, but there will be some regional shifts. African countries are expected to increase their cultivation area, while reductions are projected for Europe and America. Production growth is mainly attributed to investments in yield improvements in Africa and Asia, and, to a lesser extent, an intensification of land use in Africa.

By 2034, an additional 2.6 kg/capita per year of root crops will enter diets at the global level, driven mostly by consumers in Sub-Saharan Africa where per capita intake of roots and tubers could reach 48 kg per year, up from 43 kg/capita. Biofuel use, albeit from a low basis (4% of use), is expected to grow by 17% over the next ten years driven by the Chinese biofuel industry. Feed and other industrial use will remain significant, with growth of about 24% and 18% respectively, over the Outlook period.

International trade in roots and tubers comprises about 8% of global market production. Over the medium term, this share is expected to remain constant. Exports from Thailand and Viet Nam are growing and are expected to reach a combined total of 19 Mt, mainly to supply the growing biofuel and starch industries in China.

After a decrease in 2024 partly due to lower demand in China, prices of roots and tubers are projected to follow a similar path to cereal prices in the medium term given the substitutability between roots and tubers and cereals on food and feed markets; namely, an increase in nominal prices but a decline in real terms.

10.2. Pulses

10.2.1. Market overview

Pulses are the edible seeds of plants in the legume family. Eleven types are commonly recognized.1 They provide high levels of protein, dietary fibre, vitamins, minerals, phytochemicals, and complex carbohydrates. Apart from their contribution to calorie intake, pulses help to improve digestion, reduce blood glucose, minimise inflammation, lower blood cholesterol, and reduce chronic health issues such as diabetes, heart disease, and obesity. However, their consumption levels differ from region to region depending on dietary preferences and availability. Compared to other crops, pulses have a low contribution to total food wastage. Pulses can be stored for extended periods without spoiling or reductions in nutritional quality. This characteristic helps minimise the risk of food waste caused by spoilage and makes pulses a wise option for households facing food insecurity.

Cultivation of pulses has a long tradition in almost all regions of the world. For centuries, legumes have played a fundamental role in the functioning of traditional agricultural systems. Pulses are critical to improve soil health through biological nitrogen fixation, increased soil organic matter, and the disruption of pest and disease cycles when used in rotation or intercropping systems. These benefits are especially relevant in smallholder contexts, where improving soil fertility with limited external inputs is key to sustainability and productivity. Prior to 2000, global production of pulses stagnated due to the widespread disappearance of traditional crop rotation systems in low-income countries. Production was further hampered by their weak resilience to diseases due to lack of genetic diversity, limited access to high-yield varieties, and limited policy support to pulses growers. The sector began to recover in the early 2000s and has since seen an average annual increase of about 3% globally, led by Asia and Africa. These two regions combined accounted for more than two-third of the 22 Mt production increase in the past decade.

Global per capita consumption of pulses started to decline in the 1960s (Figure 10.2) as slow growth in yields pushed up prices. Income growth and urbanization shifted preferences away from pulses as human diets became richer in animal proteins, sugar, and fats. Nevertheless, pulses have remained an important source of protein in low-income countries, and average global per capita food consumption has increased to about 7 kg/year to date. This growth has been driven mainly by income gains in countries where pulses are an important source of protein, particularly in India where vegetarians account for about 20-40% of the population, but also in Ethiopia where per capita consumption of pulses is the highest.

Pulses can be processed into different forms such as whole pulses, split pulses, pulse flours, and pulse fractions like protein, starch and fibre. The flour and fractions have diverse applications in industries related to meat and snack foods, bakery and beverages, and batter and breading.

10.2.2. Current market conditions

India is by far the largest producer of pulses, accounting for about 29% of global production in the base period. Canada, China and the European Union are the next largest producing countries, with around 5% of global production. The Asian market accounts for 51% of all consumption but only about 44% of production, making it the most significant import destination. About 20% of global production is traded internationally with Canada (24% of global trade) by far the largest exporter and China the largest importer (13% of global trade). Africa has further expanded its production and consumption in the past decade and has remained largely self-sufficient.

In 2024, the global pulses consumption reached a volume of 101 Mt, after an average annual growth of 2% p.a. during the previous decade. This growth was led by Asia and Africa. World trade volumes were registered at 20.7 Mt, 1.5 Mt higher than in 2023. This growth was fuelled by increases in Canadian production and exports in 2024, as good returns and favourable conditions have raised both yields and area harvested. Most of the Canadian exports were destined to India which has temporarily lifted import restrictions for pulses to keep food price inflation under control. International prices for pulses, approximated by the Canadian field pea price, have continued to fall from their peak value of 2021 to USD 276/t in 2024.

10.2.3. Main drivers for projections

As pulses are associated with various health benefits and represent an important meat substitute due to their high protein content, health and environmentally conscious consumers are increasingly integrating them into their daily diets, which in turn is propelling the growth of the global pulses market. Rapid urbanisation, changing lifestyles, and hectic work schedules are also making healthy snack foods popular amongst the working population, and pulses are increasingly used in the processing of ready‑to‑eat (RTE) food products.

The health and environmental benefits attributed to pulses are major reasons for governments of pulses-producing countries to provide assistance to farmers and thus supporting growth of the market. Support for pulses production plays an important role in the Protein Strategy of the European Union where pulses are a major ingredient in products such as meat substitutes. Depending on the future dynamics of demand for such products, this could significantly change the future importance of pulses in the agricultural production mix.

10.2.4. Projection highlights

Pulses are expected to regain importance in diets in many regions of the world. This Outlook foresees this global growth to continue and projects global average annual per capita food use to increase to 8.6 kg by 2034. Per capita food consumption is projected to increase in almost all regions over the coming decade, with the largest increase expected in North America (+2.2% p.a.) (Figure 10.2). Nevertheless, in contrast to other commodities per capita consumption of pulses in North America at 5.9 kg/person in 2034 remains considerably below the world average of 8.6 kg/person.

Global supply is projected to increase by 26 Mt. Around 40% of this increase is expected to come from Asia, particularly India, the world’s largest producer. Sustained yield improvements are projected to raise India’s domestic production by an additional 8 Mt by 2034. India has introduced high-yielding hybrid seeds, supported mechanization, and implemented a minimum support price aimed at stabilising farmer’s income. In addition, the central government and some state governments have included pulses in their procurement programmes, although not with the same geographical coverage as for wheat and rice.

This expected production expansion is driven by the assumption of continued intensification of pulses production systems due to improved yields and intensified land use. About half of production growth can be attributed to land use intensification during the projection period, and the remaining half to yield improvements. Particularly in Africa, a combination of area expansion and yield growth is estimated to add about 0.9 Mt annually to the region’s production.

This Outlook assumes that growth will be sustained by increased intercropping of pulses with cereals, especially in Asia and Africa where smallholder farmers represent a large share of producers. The projected yield improvements for pulses will continue to lag behind those for cereals and oilseeds because in most countries pulses tend to be overlooked in the development of high-yielding varieties, improved irrigation systems, and agricultural support policies.

World trade in pulses grew from 14 Mt to 20 Mt over the past decade and is projected to reach 23 Mt by 2034. Canada will remain the main exporter of pulses, with volumes expected to grow from 4.9 Mt at present to 5.7 Mt by 2034, followed by Australia and Russian Federation (hereafter “Russia”) with 2.4 Mt and 1.9 Mt of exports by 2034, respectively.

International prices in nominal terms are expected to decrease further in 2025 then increase slightly over the coming decade, while real prices will decline.

10.3. Bananas and major tropical fruits

Bananas and the four major fresh tropical fruits–mango, pineapple, avocado and papaya – play a vital role in agricultural markets, especially in securing the nutrition and livelihoods of smallholders in tropical countries. In recent decades, rising incomes and changing consumer preferences in emerging and high-income markets, alongside improvements in transport and supply chain management, have facilitated fast growth in both consumption and international trade in these commodities.

Global production of bananas and major tropical fruits generates some USD 122 billion in revenues to support producers. Although only approximately 14% of global banana production and 8% of global major tropical fruit production are traded in international markets, the two commodity groups respectively generate around USD 11.5 billion and USD 13.8 billion per year in export revenues (provisional 2024 figures). In exporting countries, which are mostly low- or middle-income economies, production and trade revenues can weigh substantially in agricultural GDP, particularly for tropical Latin American countries. For instance, bananas represented about 17% of agricultural GDP and 39% of agricultural export revenue in Ecuador in 2022, while combined exports of pineapples and bananas accounted for some 40% of agricultural export revenue in Costa Rica. As such, trade in bananas and major tropical fruits can generate significant export earnings.

10.3.1. Bananas

Market situation

Preliminary data for 2024 indicate that global banana trade continued to be impacted by lower supplies due to adverse weather and the spread of plant pests and diseases. Developments among key trade partners varied significantly, with some exporting countries benefitting from favourable conditions while others faced challenges. Colombia, India, and Viet Nam reported higher production in the first eight months, driven by increased investments and favourable weather. In contrast, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico experienced reduced export supplies due to adverse weather, including excessive rainfall and tropical storms. The spread of plant diseases, most importantly the devastating spread of the Banana Fusarium Wilt Tropical Race 4 (TR4) disease in the Philippines and its alarming presence in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and Peru, further continued to cause production losses as well as financial strain from the substantial costs associated with disease prevention.

Producers also faced challenges from unfavourable exchange rates, as the depreciation of the United States dollar in the first half of the year led to lower earnings in local currencies, compounding high production costs. High interest rates further pressured economic activity in both domestic and importing markets. Import demand for bananas remained steady in developed markets, with bananas benefitting from their affordability amid inflation. However, average import unit values declined in 2024, with decreases of 2% in the European Union and 23% in the United States, reversing the previous two years' price increases and increasing pressure along the value chain. The industry's outlook remains challenging, with low margins hindering producers' ability to manage high costs and environmental threats.

Projection highlights

Assuming normal weather conditions and no further spread of banana plant diseases, global banana production is expected to reach 166 Mt by 2034, from 139 Mt in the base period. As per capita demand for bananas is becoming increasingly saturated in most regions, growth in global production and consumption is expected to be primarily driven by population dynamics. In line with slowing world population growth, the current baseline projections expect world production and consumption of bananas to expand at a moderate 1.4% p.a. over the outlook period. At the same time, in some emerging economies – principally in India and China – income growth is anticipated to stimulate changing health and nutrition perceptions and support demand for bananas beyond population growth. Accordingly, Asia, the current top producing region, is anticipated to remain so at a quantity share of just over 50%, with India projected to reach an output of 45 Mt and a per capita consumption of 28.1 kg by 2034, from 24.9 kg in the base period.

Production in the top exporting region, Latin America and the Caribbean, is projected to grow at 0.8% p.a. and reach 37 Mt by 2034, supported by rising demand from key markets, most importantly the European Union and the United States. With economic pressures expected to continue in 2025 and potentially beyond, demand for bananas is likely to be supported by the fruit’s relative affordability. The largest exporters from the region–Ecuador, Guatemala, Colombia and Costa Rica–are likely to benefit from this growth, provided that output can be shielded from the adverse effects of erratic weather events and disease outbreaks. Rising demand from the European Union and the United Kingdom is further expected to benefit exports from Africa, which are projected to expand at 1.9% p.a. over the outlook period–led by Ivory Coast–to reach a total quantity of approximately 0.7 Mt in 2034. Rising import demand from China, where domestic production growth is likely to remain relatively slow, is assumed to be an additional factor driving production growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, and importantly also in emerging Asian suppliers Viet Nam and the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, which may jointly export some 0.9 Mt by 2034. Against this background, world exports of bananas are projected to reach some 21.8 Mt by 2034.

10.3.2. Mango, mangosteen and guava

Market situation

Global exports of mango, mangosteen and guava2 grew to approximately 2.5 Mt in 2024, an increase of 3% from the previous year. Higher exports of mangosteen from Thailand, as well as of mangoes from emerging suppliers Ecuador and Egypt, were the main driving factor behind this. In terms of export quantities by type at the global level, mango accounted for around 85% of global shipments and mangosteen for around 15%. Guava continued to display a statistically negligible availability in import markets, mainly due to its lesser suitability for transport.

Total global import quantities of fresh mangoes, mangosteens and guavas rose by 4% to 2.4 Mt in 2024. The United States and the European Union remained the leading global importers, with expected import shares of 24% and 14%, respectively. In both markets, consumer demand for mangoes reportedly remained solid, driven by a mounting nutritional awareness of the assumed health benefits of these fruits. However, import growth in the United States was impeded by a low availability of supplies from Mexico, while exports to the European Union were greatly hindered by logistical difficulties, especially a scarcity of vessel space and high costs for air freight. Overall, imports into the United States contracted by some 1% in 2024, to approximately 0.56 Mt. Imports into the European Union dropped by 15% in 2024, to some 0.34 Mt. In both markets, lower supplies against unimpeded demand resulted in strongly rising unit values at the import stage. Meanwhile, imports by China, the third leading global importer of mangoes, mangosteens and guavas in recent years, grew by 16% in 2024, to approximately 0.34 Mt.

Projection highlights

Global production of mangoes, mangosteens and guavas is projected to increase at 2.8% p.a. over the next decade, to reach 86 Mt by 2034, from 62 Mt in the base period. Growth in mango production will mainly respond to income-driven growth in demand in producing countries, further supported by population dynamics. Asia, the native region of mangoes and mangosteens, will continue to account for some 70% of global production in 2034. This will be primarily due to strong growth in domestic demand in India, the leading producer and consumer of mangoes globally, with rising incomes and associated shifts in dietary preferences being the main drivers. Mango production in India is projected to account for about 36 Mt in 2034, or 42% of global production, destined largely for local, informal markets. As such, India is projected to experience increases in per capita consumption of 1.2% p.a. over the outlook period, reaching 23.1 kg in 2034, compared to 18.5 kg in the base period, while average per capita consumption in Asia overall is expected to reach 13.6 kg in 2034, compared to 10.6 kg in the base period. By contrast, in Mexico and Thailand, the leading exporters, production growth will primarily be driven by expanding global import demand. Exports are anticipated to reach an 18% share of production in Mexico by 2034, and 29% in Thailand. However, at projected production quantities of 3.3 and 1.7 Mt in 2034, respectively, Mexico and Thailand will account for comparatively small shares in global production.

Global exports of mangoes, mangosteens and guavas are projected to reach 3.3 Mt in 2034, compared to 2.4 Mt in the base period, on account of higher procurements from the United States, China, and the European Union. Mexico, the leading supplier of mangoes, is expected to benefit from further growth in import demand from its major market, the United States, provided no import tariffs are imposed by the United States on mangoes originating in Mexico. Under this assumption, Mexico would hold a 20% share of world exports in 2034. Shipments from Thailand, almost exclusively mangosteens, will cater mainly to rising import demand from China, while supplies from Peru and Brazil, will be mostly mangoes destined for the European Union. While Thailand is projected to account for a share in global exports of 16% by 2034, Brazil and Peru are expected to hold some 12% and 7%, respectively. China, whose per capita mango, mangosteen and guava consumption of 2.8 kg in the base period is relatively low compared to other Asian countries, is expected to experience a rise in imports of 4% p.a., to some 0.7 Mt in 2034. This will be mainly due to a strong, income-driven increase in Chinese import demand for mangosteen, as domestic production of this fruit is projected to remain low in China.

10.3.3. Pineapple

Market situation

Based on preliminary trade data, global exports of pineapples grew by approximately 4% in 2024, to 3.3 Mt, driven largely by higher supplies from Costa Rica and the Philippines, the world’s leading exporters with market shares of around 65% and 21%, respectively. Shipments from Costa Rica accordingly rose by some 3% in 2024, to about 2.1 Mt. In terms of leading destinations, pineapple shipments from Costa Rica continued to be almost exclusively destined for the United States and the European Union, where demand reportedly remained firm.

Preliminary trade data point to an increase in global imports of pineapples of around 5% in 2024, to approximately 3.1 Mt. According to industry information, demand in the United States and the European Union continued to be firm. While supplies from the main global supplier, Costa Rica, increased for the second year in a row, industry sources reported that this was not enough to satisfy demand in 2024, especially in the European Union, causing indicative average import unit values in both key destinations to increase.

Aided by relatively stable sales in the hospitality sector, imports by the United States grew by some 4% in 2024, to 1.2 Mt. Similarly, imports by the European Union, the second largest importer, rose by some 4%, to approximately 0.8 Mt, still some 10% below their previous five-year-average. Estimates thereby suggest that the United States procured about 39% of global export supplies in 2024, and the European Union some 26%.

Projection highlights

Over the next decade, global production of pineapple is projected to grow at 1.2% p.a., on account of a 0.6% p.a. expansion in harvested area to reach 37 Mt in 2034, from 30 Mt in the base period. Asia is expected to remain the largest producing region accounting for 44% of global production, with sizeable production in the Philippines, Indonesia, China, India and Thailand. Cultivation in Asia will continue to largely cater to domestic demand and is projected to grow solidly in response to changing demographics and income growth, especially in India, Indonesia and China. Similarly, pineapple production in Latin America and the Caribbean, the second largest producing region at a projected 34% of world production in 2034, will be primarily driven by the evolving consumption needs of the region’s growing and increasingly affluent population. Only Costa Rica and the Philippines, two important global producers and exporters, are anticipated to see additional export stimulation from rising import demand, with exports projected to account for approximately 73% of fresh pineapple production in Costa Rica and 21% in the Philippines in 2034.

Global exports of fresh pineapple are set to grow at 0.5% p.a., to 3.7 Mt in 2034, predominantly driven by demand from the United States and the European Union. With projected imports of 1.3 Mt in 2034–equivalent to a 36% global share–the United States is expected to remain the largest importer. The European Union is expected to account for some 26% of global imports. In both key markets, demand is assumed to benefit from continuously low unit prices and, to some degree, from the introduction of more premium novelty varieties. Rising import demand from China, where consumption growth has been outpacing production expansion in recent years, is expected to additionally drive expansion in global exports. At growth of 4.9% p.a., China is projected to reach import quantities of some 0.37 Mt per year by 2034, with supplies primarily sourced in the Philippines.

10.3.4. Avocado

Market situation

Global exports of avocado were estimated to have expanded by a moderate 2% in 2024 to around 2.8 Mt, in stark contrast to the near 11% expansion seen in 2023. Lower supplies from Mexico and Peru, the two leading exporters, which jointly supply some 65% of total traded quantities, were the main reason behind this. Preliminary data and information meanwhile indicate that exports from several other origins, notably Israel, Kenya and South Africa, expanded.

Global imports of avocados were estimated to have remained virtually unchanged from the previous year at approximately 2.8 Mt. While demand in the two major import markets, the United States and the European Union, continued to be firm, higher growth in imports was impeded by the difficult supply situation seen in Mexico and Peru. As a result, imports by the United States, which accounted for some 42% of global imports in 2024, contracted by some 3% in 2024 to approximately 1.2 Mt. In the face of high demand, which outstripped growth in supplies, available monthly trade data for the period January to August 2024 show a year-on-year increase in the average United States import unit value of 30%, to USD 3 148 per tonne. Imports into the European Union, meanwhile, were expected to rise by some 4% in 2024, to approximately 0.79 Mt. In view of the production difficulties in Peru, import demand in the European Union was catered for mainly by Israel and South Africa.

Projection highlights

Avocado has the lowest production volume among the major tropical fruits but has experienced the fastest expansion in output in recent decades and is expected to remain the most rapidly growing over the outlook period. Ample and rising global demand, high returns per hectare and lucrative export unit prices continue to be the main drivers of this growth, stimulating investments in area expansion in both major and emerging production zones. By 2034, production is therefore projected to grow at 2.1% p.a. and reach 14 Mt p.a.–nearly three times its level in 2015. While new growing areas have been emerging rapidly, avocado production is likely to remain concentrated in a small number of regions and countries. The top four producing countries–Mexico, Colombia, Peru and the Dominican Republic–are projected to expand production substantially over the coming decade, together accounting for some 53% of global production in 2034. Output in Mexico, Colombia and Peru is set to increase by between 25% and 35% from base period levels. Consequently, about 64% of avocado production is expected to remain in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Avocado is on track to become the most traded major tropical fruit in quantity, overtaking pineapples towards the end of the outlook period and reaching 4 Mt of exports by 2034. The total value of global avocado exports would thus reach an estimated USD 9.7 billion in constant 2022-2024 value terms, thereby placing avocado as one of the most valuable fruit commodities. Despite increasing competition from emerging exporters, Mexico is expected to retain its leading position in global exports at a 45% quantity share in 2034. This will be supported by output growth of 1.6% p.a. over the coming decade and continued growth in demand in the United States. Exports from Peru, the second leading exporter, will account for some 18% of global shipments, with supplies mainly catering for rising demand from the European Union.

The United States and the European Union, where consumer interest in avocados is fuelled by the fruit’s claimed health benefits, are expected to remain the main importers with 42% and 28% of global imports in 2034, respectively. However, imports are also set to rise in the United Kingdom, Canada, China and some countries in the Middle East, on account of rising incomes and/or changing consumer preferences. Similarly, in many producing countries, per capita consumption of avocados is expected to rise with income growth, notably in Colombia, Mexico and Indonesia.

10.3.5. Papaya

Market situation

Preliminary trade data indicate a contraction in global exports of papayas by an estimated 1% in 2024 to some 0.365 Mt. Exports from Mexico, the largest global exporter of papayas, grew only moderately by some 1% to 0.2 Mt. Industry sources reported that adverse weather conditions, including cooler than normal temperatures, limited both the quantity and quality of supplies. Virtually all Mexican papaya exports are destined for the United States. However, the bulk of Mexican papaya production continued to be for domestic consumption.

Preliminary data further suggest that global imports contracted by 1% in 2024, to approximately 0.35 Mt. The United States remained the largest importer globally, accounting for an estimated quantity share of 61% in 2024. Available data indicate that imports by the United States declined by approximately 1% in 2024 to some 0.21 Mt. Industry sources stated that while demand for papayas in the United States remained solid, growth was hindered by the supply shortages experienced in Mexico. The second leading importer globally continued to be the European Union, albeit with a much lower share in world imports of only an estimated 9% in 2024. Consumer awareness of papaya in the European Union generally remains low mostly due to the fruit’s fragility in transport which renders a significant expansion in this market difficult to attain.

Projection highlights

Global papaya production is projected to rise by 1.9% p.a. to 17 Mt in 2034 from 14 Mt in the base period. As the share of exports in production is particularly low for papayas, at some 2% in the base period, production of this fruit is mostly driven by domestic demand due to population and income growth. Asia, the top global producer, is expected to have the strongest production expansion with its share of world production set to rise to 59% by 2034 from 56% in the base period. India, the world’s largest producer, is projected to increase production at a rate of 2% p.a., retaining a share of global output of 36% by 2034. Income and population growth will be the main factors behind this rise, with Indian per capita consumption of papayas expected to reach 4 kg in 2034, up slightly from 3.7 kg in the base period. In Indonesia, production is projected to grow by 1.3% p.a. over the outlook period primarily on account of increasing domestic demand as per capita incomes are expected to grow at 3.7% p.a.

Global exports will predominantly be shaped by production expansion in Mexico and higher demand from the key importers. At an expected average annual rate of 1.4%, global exports of papayas are projected to reach just under 0.4 Mt by 2034. A major obstacle to a significant expansion in international trade has so far been the fruit’s high perishability and sensitivity in transport which make produce problematic to supply to distant destinations. Innovations in cold chain, packaging and transport technologies promise to facilitate a broader distribution of papaya, particularly in view of rising consumer demand for tropical fruits in import markets.

10.3.6. Uncertainties

The outlook for global production, trade and consumption of bananas and major fresh tropical fruits is subject to several uncertainties. Elevated costs of living, high interest expenses and exchange rate fluctuations threaten to hinder demand in domestic and import markets, especially for consumers in poorer economic strata. Given the typically high unit values and high income and price elasticities of demand for tropical fruits, changes in consumer incomes or prices can dramatically affect demand. Geopolitical uncertainties that may result in the disruption of established trade relationships, changing tariffs and potentially have large effects on domestic and global markets are of further concern.

On the supply side, the effects of global warming are resulting in a higher occurrence of droughts, floods, hurricanes and other natural disasters which render the production of bananas and major tropical fruits increasingly difficult and costly. Given the perishable nature of tropical fruits in production, trade and distribution, environmental challenges and insufficient infrastructure continue to jeopardise international production and supply. This is a particularly acute difficulty since the vast majority of tropical fruits are produced in remote, informal settings where cultivation is highly dependent on rainfall, prone to the adverse effects of increasingly erratic weather events and disconnected from major transport routes.

In the face of rising temperatures, more rapid and severe spreads of plant pests and diseases are being observed, as in the case of the spread of Banana Fusarium Wilt. The currently expanding strain of the disease, Tropical Race 4 (TR4), poses particularly high risks to global banana supplies as it can affect a much broader range of banana and plantain cultivars than other strains. Furthermore, despite recent breakthroughs in the engineering of resistant varieties, no effective fungicide or other eradication method is currently available. According to official information, TR4 is currently confirmed in 22 countries, predominantly in South and Southeast Asia, but also in the Middle East, Africa, Oceania and Latin America. An assessment of the potential economic impact of the TR4 disease on global markets showed that a further spread of TR4 would, inter alia, entail considerable loss of income and employment in the banana sector in the affected countries as well as significantly higher consumer costs in importing countries.3

Notes

← 1.  Pulses types: dry beans, dry broad beans, dry peas, chickpeas, cow peas, pigeon peas, lentils, Bambara beans, vetches, lupines and minor pulses (not elsewhere specified).

← 2.  International commodity classification schemes for production and trade do not require countries to report the fruits within this cluster separately, thus official data remain sparse. It is estimated that, on average, mango accounts for approximately 75% of total production quantity, guava for 15% and mangosteen for the remaining 10%.

← 3.  An alternative simulation was run in 2019 to assess the potential economic impact of the Banana Fusarium Wilt Tropical Race 4 disease on global banana production and trade. The results of this scenario were published in the November 2019 issue of FAO’s biannual publication Food Outlook (http://www.fao.org/3/CA6911EN/CA6911EN.pdf).