OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025‑2034

2. Cereals

Abstract

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world cereal markets for the period 2025-34. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices for wheat, rice, maize, and other coarse grains. The chapter concludes with a discussion of key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world cereal markets over the next decade.

2.1. Projection highlights

Global cereal consumption growth is expected to be moderate, driven by a slower expansion in feed and biofuels uses. Food consumption of cereals is projected to rise by 1.1% p.a., reaching 1.28 bln t by 2034, mainly due to rising population in Asia and Africa. The growth in feed use will be led by livestock production expansion in Asia and the Americas.

A projected 1.1% annual growth in global cereal production, reaching 3.2 bln t by 2034, will be driven primarily by increasing yield rather than by an expansion of harvested areas. Cereal yields are expected to rise by 0.9% p.a., on average, driven by technology improvements and the wider adoption of improved seed varieties and enhanced agricultural practices, including optimized input and resource use.

Global trade in cereals will continue to expand in line with production. The share of production traded will remain slightly above the base period level of 17%. Most African and Asian countries–excluding major rice exporters–are expected to remain or become net cereal importers. This reflects not only disparities in natural resource availability, but also population and income growth driving demand beyond domestic supply capacity. Meanwhile, the Americas and parts of Europe are expected to further strengthen their role as key global suppliers.

In real terms, annual cereal prices are expected to decline over the projection period as productivity growth and efficiency gains reduce production costs. However, nominal cereal prices are expected to follow upward trends, due to assumed inflation.

Baseline projections are subject to uncertainties in the medium term, as the underlying assumptions about energy costs, weather conditions, geopolitical tensions, the import demand of the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”), and trade policies may not materialise. Moreover, actual consumer food prices may not fully reflect trends in agricultural commodity prices, as processing costs and local market conditions can outweigh global price movements.

2.2. Current market trends

Monthly maize prices steadily increased from July 2024, reaching USD 221/t in February 2025, driven by a tightening global supply situation–marked by declines in both world production and stocks, particularly in Brazil–and strong demand for United States exports. Trade policy uncertainty and crop conditions for ongoing harvests in Argentina and Brazil also continue to influence global price movements.

Wheat prices were more volatile, fluctuating between USD 250 and 270/t, but generally decreased in the second half of 2024 and remained down year-on-year in February 2025. Despite tighter supplies in the Russian Federation (hereafter “Russia”) and the European Union, the overall tone on prices is subdued reflecting strong competition between other exporters amidst reduced demand from various importers that had sufficient domestic supplies in 2024, such as China and Pakistan. Current seasonal supplies from Australia and Argentina are helping to offset the impact of adverse crop conditions and reduced exportable supplies in the European Union.

International barley prices resumed their long-term upward trend in 2024 and have steadily increased since September 2024 due to supply concerns in major exporting regions and favourable demand for non-food uses, such as animal feed and malting.

Having remained elevated for much of 2024, international rice prices have registered pronounced falls since October 2024, influenced by the repeal of export restrictions in India, prospective large harvests in northern hemisphere suppliers, slowing import demand in Indonesia, and currency depreciations against the United States dollar in major exporters.

2.3. Market projections

2.3.1. Consumption

Asian countries will lead growth in demand for cereals

Cereal demand will continue to be dominated by food use closely followed by feed use. In 2034, 40% of all cereals will be directly consumed by humans, while 33% will be used for animal feed. Biofuels and other uses are projected to account for the remaining 27%. These shares, however, differ across the different cereal types. While wheat and rice are mainly used for food, feed use dominates in the case of maize and other coarse grains (Figure 2.1).

Between 49% and 65% of global cereal consumption is projected to occur in the top five consumer countries for each commodity by 2034 (Figure 2.2), which is clearly less concentrated than production (Figure 2.4). Global use of cereals is projected to increase from 2.8 bln t in the base period to 3.2 bln t by 2034, driven mainly by higher food (+146 Mt) and feed use (+134 Mt). Asian countries will account for 54% of the total demand increase. Food consumption is expected to rise at a pace slightly higher than in the previous decade. The global increase in feed use is expected to be led by maize, followed by other coarse grains and wheat.

Wheat consumption is expected to be 11% higher in 2034 than in the base period. India and China are expected to account for 30% of this increase. Global use of wheat for food is projected to increase by 57 Mt but to remain stable at about 65% of total consumption. This growth is slightly lower compared to the previous decade in line with slowing growth in world population.

Globally, the increase in food consumption of wheat is driven by Asia, where wheat is the mainstay in diets for a large share of the population. In Africa, food use continues to expand beyond the traditional wheat consumers in North Africa, to Sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, there is increasing demand for processed products that call for higher quality, protein rich wheat, produced in North America, Australia and, to a lesser extent, in the European Union and Russia. Countries in North Africa and Western and Central Asia, notably Egypt, Türkiye, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, will remain major consumers of wheat with high levels of per capita consumption. Global production of wheat-based ethanol is expected to decline by 6% from the base period level.

Rice is primarily consumed as food and is a major staple in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and also increasingly in Africa. World total rice consumption is expected to increase by 1% p.a. over the projection period, compared to 1.1% p.a. during the last decade. Asian countries account for 69% of the projected increase, largely due to population rather than per capita food consumption growth (Table 2.1). The average per capita food use of rice is projected to increase by 0.8 kilograms from the base period level, driven mainly by Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Global maize consumption is projected to increase by 1.3% p.a. compared to 1.7% in the previous decade. This increase is principally driven by increasing incomes that translate into higher feed demand, which is expected to remain at 50% of total maize consumption. Asian countries will account for 56% of the increase in feed consumption due to the rapid expansion and intensification of their livestock and poultry sectors. Globally, maize feed demand is expected to rise by 104 Mt to 709 Mt, at a slower pace than in the previous decade.

Table 2.1. Rice per capita food consumption

	kg/person/year		Growth rate (% p.a.)
	2022-2024	2034
Africa	24.8	27.7	0.95
North America	10.4	10.8	0.50
Europe	6.4	6.8	0.22
Oceania	19.1	19.7	0.19
Latin America and Caribbean	25.2	24.9	-0.30
Asia	71.9	73.3	0.10
World	50.2	51.0	0.07

Note: The last column displays least-squares average annual growth rate, 2025-2034 (see glossary).

Source: OECD/FAO (2025), ''OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook'', OECD Agriculture statistics (database), http://data-explorer.oecd.org/s/1hc.

Maize feed demand in China, a major maize consumer, is projected to increase by about 1% p.a., down from 2.5% in the previous decade. While livestock expansion and the rebuilding of herds after the outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) drove a recovery in domestic maize feed demand in recent years, China is expected to experience slower livestock sector growth, along with improved feed efficiency and a more diversified feed mix—developments supported by policy interventions aimed at enhancing self-sufficiency in feed supply.

The use of white maize as food is expected to increase primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa where population growth is strong. Food maize will remain an important staple, accounting for about a quarter of total caloric intake. Growth in food consumption of maize in African countries is expected at about 2.8% p.a.

Globally, maize use for biofuel production is expected to increase at a much slower rate than in the past two decades as national ethanol markets of key producers are constrained by biofuel policies. Brazil and India are projected to drive this increase.

World consumption of other coarse grains is projected to increase by nearly 33 Mt, or 1% p.a., over the next ten years, compared to -0.1% p.a. in the previous decade, driven by additional use in Africa and Asia. Consumption is expected to remain stable in high‑income countries. The food share of total consumption is projected to increase from about 27% in the base period to 29% by 2034. Sub-Saharan African countries rely heavily on millet as a staple food due to its resilience to harsh weather and its adaptability to the region’s diverse climate conditions.

Compared to more perishable commodities, cereals tend to have relatively lower levels of food loss and waste. Most post-harvest losses still occur during transport and processing, while additional waste arises at the distribution stage (including retail) and household levels. Total food loss and waste in the cereal sector is projected to remain stable at the base-period estimate—19% of global cereal production. This highlights the need for combined strategies to mitigate these losses throughout the supply chain, that include technological advancements, infrastructure improvements, policy initiatives, and consumer education.

2.3.2. Production

Yield intensification sustains production growth

Over the past decade, the global harvested area of cereals expanded at an average annual rate of 0.33%. This growth is expected to slow down to 0.14% p.a. in the coming decade, adding a total of 16.2 Mha by 2034. Latin American and the Caribbean as well as Asian countries will account for 61% of this growth owing mostly to the availability of frontier land and land reclamation. Globally, wheat, maize and rice areas are projected to increase by 2%, 5% and 1% respectively from the base period, with other coarse grains areas rising marginally. Future agricultural land expansion is projected to be limited due to urbanisation and the implementation of environmental and sustainability policies, such as restrictions on deforestation, land-use change, and conservation of carbon-rich ecosystems. Increased global production is, therefore, expected to be driven by yield intensification.

Global cereal yields are projected to rise by 0.9% p.a. in the next decade, up from 0.8% in the previous one, reaching a global average of 4.2 t/ha in 2034. Growth in cereal output will depend more and more on productivity gains, suggesting that improved technology, better farming practices, and more efficient input use will be critical to sustaining increased output. Global yields are projected to reach 3.9 t/ha for wheat, 6.5 t/ha for maize, 3.5 t/ha for rice, and 2.3 t/ha for other coarse grains by the end of the decade (Figure 2.3).

Despite increasing cereal yields, regional disparities are expected to persist, with no global convergence anticipated between higher- and lower-yielding regions. In high‑yielding countries, yield growth is slowing, reflecting reduced marginal gains from existing technologies and increasing constraints from environmental policies. In lower‑yielding countries, on the other hand, progress varies. Some benefit from rapid modernisation and targeted investment, whereas others remain vulnerable to productivity stagnation due to natural and structural constraints. Therefore, global food security will depend on whether policy interventions can bridge these gaps by ensuring that the most lagging regions gain access to the tools and technologies needed for sustained yield growth.

Total cereal production is projected to grow by around 1.1% p.a. as in the previous decade, reaching 3.2 bln t in 2034. Reflecting yield growth differences, low- and lower‑middle-income countries are projected to achieve cereal production growth at a rate approximately 2.4 times higher than that of upper-middle- and high-income countries. This projection is based on anticipated yield improvements due to better access to modern farming techniques and inputs in lower-income regions. In higher-income countries, production increases will be more moderate due to already high productivity levels and limited opportunities for land expansion. Latin American and Caribbean countries are projected to achieve relatively high production growth (1.8% p.a.) due to increased investment in agricultural technology and infrastructure. In Africa, high production growth (2.3% p.a.) stems from strong yield improvements that reflect efforts to modernize agriculture. In North America, yield growth will sustain a production increase of around 0.6% p.a. as the harvested area will see only a modest expansion. Due to sustainability policies and land constraints, Europe is expected to see a stable agricultural landscape with a nearly unchanged–but more efficiently used–harvested area, a modest increase in yields, and an annual production growth of 0.8%. Oceania and Asia will see modest growth in total cereal production of 1.2% and 0.9% p.a. respectively.

Global wheat production is expected to increase by 74 Mt to 874 Mt by 2034, of which 42 Mt will be in Asia. India, the world’s third largest wheat producer, is expected to provide the largest share of the additional wheat, accounting for 29% of the global production increase, driven by yield improvements and area expansion in response to national policies to improve self-sufficiency. However, with continued population growth and rising domestic demand, India is projected to become a net importer by 2034. There will also be production expansion in Russia, Pakistan, Argentina, Canada, and the United States, which jointly account for roughly half of the total increase. China, India, and the European Union are projected to produce 46% of global wheat output in 2034 (Figure 2.4).

Global maize production is expected to grow by 188 Mt to 1.4 bln t by 2034, with the largest absolute increases compared to the base period in the United States (33 Mt), Brazil (32 Mt) and China (27 Mt), responding to a rising global demand and favourable domestic policy environments. In Brazil, where second-cropped maize production responds to global demand and price signals during the domestic soybean harvest, the projected annual production growth exceeds the global average of 1.2%. Maize output is also projected to rise faster than the global average in Sub-Saharan Africa reflecting yield improvements.

Global rice production is expected to grow by 61 Mt and reach 598 Mt by 2034. Yield improvements in low- and lower-middle income countries are expected to drive this growth. Production expansion in Asian countries, which account for the bulk of global rice output, is expected to be robust. India, the world’s largest rice producer by 2034, will account for 41% of this expansion, followed by the LDC Asian region, Viet Nam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand (37% altogether). China is expected to increase production by 0.11% p.a., up from 0.06% in the previous decade. As in most major rice‑producing countries, China’s projected rice production growth is expected to come from higher yields, while harvested area declines slightly. This reflects ongoing efforts to phase out less productive land as part of broader efforts to improve the efficiency of rice production. Decreasing harvested areas of rice in China and Brazil will be offset by increases in African and other Asian countries. Production in upper-middle- and high-income countries is expected to increase only marginally, against the global average of 0.9% p.a.

Global production of other coarse grains–sorghum, barley, millets, rye, and oats–is projected to reach 330 Mt by 2034, up by around 33 Mt from the base period. African countries are expected to contribute 45% of this increase, driven by strong demand growth stemming from rapid population expansion, and the continued reliance on staple foods, which in turn incentivize higher local production. On a country basis, India (+4.1 Mt), Ethiopia (+3.2 Mt), and Nigeria (+2.7 Mt) will contribute the most. Output in the European Union and the United States is projected to increase by 2.3 Mt and 1.4 Mt, respectively, from the base period.

2.3.3. Trade

Moderate growth, shifting trade shares, and rising import demand

International trade in cereals, which accounts for about 17% of global production in the base period, is projected to increase marginally over the next decade. Traditionally, the Americas and Europe supply cereals to Asia and Africa, where demand for food and feed from rising populations and expanding livestock sectors is rising faster than domestic production. This buoyant trend is expected to continue over the next decade with world exports of cereals increasing by 14% in 2034 compared to the base period. Figure 2.5 illustrates how important cereal trade is relative to production and consumption. Trade volumes from Oceania are relatively low, but the share of grain exports is projected to account for nearly two-thirds of the region’s production by 2034. On the other hand, imports are projected to account for more than one-third of total domestic use in African countries.

Wheat exports are expected to grow by about 21 Mt to 226 Mt by 2034. Russia is expected to maintain its position as the leading exporter, accounting for a quarter of global exports by 2034 (Figure 2.6). Exports from the second largest wheat exporter, the European Union, are projected to increase by 1.4% p.a. from 2025 reaching 31.6 Mt in 2034, accounting for 14% of global trade. Exports from Canada and the United States are projected to remain competitive and account for 13% and 12%, respectively, of global trade by 2034. The United States, Canada, Australia and the European Union are expected to retain the higher quality protein wheat markets, particularly in Asia. While Russia plays a role in these markets, it is expected to remain more competitive in price-sensitive soft wheat markets, such as North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Western Asia. Imports by the North African and the Near East regions are set to slightly increase their shares of total wheat trade over the next decade.

Maize exports are expected to grow by about 29 Mt to 210 Mt by 2034. The top four exporters–the United States, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine–will account for 91% of this increase. The United States is expected to remain the top maize exporter with a growth rate that is lower than the in the past decade and lower than the world average of 1.6% p.a. Brazil’s exports, which benefitted from higher domestic yields and lower United States’ exports in the base period, as well as from China’s removal of non-tariff measures in 2023, will grow at a rate more than twice the world average. China’s maize imports in 2034 are projected to decline by 20% from the base period level due to the country’s strategic reserve and trade policy, increased domestic production, and feed diversification. The LDC Sub‑Saharan African region is expected to remain virtually self‑sufficient in maize, with white maize continuing to play a key role in food security as a mainstay of local diets. South Africa will remain a major regional supplier and continue to expand internationally, with its exports projected to reach about 5.6 Mt in 2034.

The international trade volume of other coarse grains, dominated by barley and sorghum, is significantly smaller than for maize or wheat. Global exports are expected to increase by 6.2 Mt to reach 52 Mt in 2034. The top five exporters–the European Union, Australia, Russia, Canada and the United States–are projected to account for 80% of global trade by 2034, slightly up from the base period. China, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye will absorb 59% of global trade in other coarse grains by 2034.

During the past decade, rice trade grew at 2.3% p.a. In this decade, growth is expected to slow down and increase by 1.5% p.a., with overall export volumes rising by 12 Mt to reach 65 Mt by 2034. Following the repeal of the rice export restrictions imposed in 2022 and 2023, India is expected to regain the export share it lost as a result. This is expected to cement India’s role as the largest global rice exporter. The export share of the top five major rice exporters –India, Viet Nam, Thailand, Pakistan, and the United States, as a group– is also expected to rise, from 77% in the base period to 81% in 2034. Viet Nam and Thailand are projected to remain the second and third largest exporters by 2034 with above-average annual growth rates of 1.4% and 2%, respectively.

Historically, Indica rice has accounted for the bulk of rice traded internationally. However, demand for other varieties is expected to continue to grow over the next decade. Imports by China, the largest importer of rice during the base period, are expected to increase by 0.4% p.a. reaching 4.1 Mt in 2034. Imports in African countries, where growth in demand continues to outpace production growth, are projected to increase significantly, by 53% from the base period.

2.3.4. Prices

Following recent trends, nominal wheat prices are expected to stabilise around their medium-term trend and reach USD 296/t by 2034. Similarly, prices of maize and other coarse grains (measured by the feed barley price fob Rouen) are expected to return to their medium-term trajectories, reaching USD 225/t and USD 252/t, respectively (Figure 2.7).

The reference export price for milled rice (FAO All Rice Price Index normalised to India 5%) is also expected to decline further and stabilise on-trend as exportable supplies become less restricted than in recent years. Over the medium term, demand from countries in the Far East, Africa, and the Middle East is expected to grow but supply increases in exporters are expected to moderate the increase in nominal prices, which will reach USD 490/t by 2034.

Due to productivity improvements and supply growth, medium-term prices for wheat, maize, other coarse grains and rice are expected to decline when adjusted for inflation (in real terms).

2.4 Risks and uncertainties

A more uncertain geopolitical, environmental, and policy environment in the next decade?

Grain markets, more than many other commodities, have been significantly impacted by Russia’s war against Ukraine due to the pivotal role of both these countries in global cereal markets. While tensions in cereal markets have eased somewhat and current market prices seem to reflect the reduced, albeit resilient, export expectations for Ukrainian cereals, these dynamics remain subject to uncertainty.

Several other factors not reflected in the current projections could impact cereal markets. The Outlook assumes on-trend production prospects, which are generally positive for the main grain-producing regions. However, extreme weather events and shifts in weather patterns could lead to highly volatile–and even redistributed–cereal yields and harvests, thereby affecting global supplies and prices.

The policy environment will be crucial. The focus on enhanced sustainability policies within the agricultural sector (e.g. the European Green Deal) as well as biofuel‑favouring policies may tighten markets for cereals even more in the coming decade. China’s policy measures aimed at boosting self-sufficiency and reducing reliance on imports could cause unpredictable shifts in its cereal demand and in global trade patterns, injecting price volatility before world cereal markets stabilise in a new “normal”.

Alternative trade policies could also provoke market reactions and reshape trade flows, balances, and prices. An increasing reliance on grain imports by several countries–especially in the MENA region, as projected in this Outlook–would increase their vulnerability to persistent trade disruptions, which may not always be fully mitigated by domestic stocks or ramped-up production. A functioning and reliable trading system is, therefore, key for food security in such regions.

Finally, crop pests and animal diseases remain critical risk factors for global cereal markets, with potentially severe implications for supply stability and price volatility. ASF remained a significant concern throughout 2024, impacting feed grain demand in various regions. While the recent outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the United States has prompted substantial poultry culling, the full implications for feed demand are still unclear, and potential fluctuations cannot be ruled out.