Modelling the Distributional Implications of Agricultural Policies in Developing Countries

This paper presents the Development Policy Evaluation Model (DEVPEM), a new simulation model which captures four critical aspects of rural economies in developing countries: (1) the role of the household as both a producer and a consumer of food crops; (2) high transaction costs of participating in markets; (3) market linkages among heterogeneous rural producers and consumers; (4) the imperfect convertibility of land from one use to another. The results of simulations for six country models show that no untargeted agricultural policy intervention is pro-poor within the rural economy. While agricultural policy instruments are less efficient at raising rural incomes than direct payments, the degree of inefficiency of some market interventions, notably input subsidies, is not inevitably as high as observed in developed OECD countries.