Implementing the OECD Framework for Industry’s Net‑Zero Transition in Egypt

Annex D. Investment survey

Objective

This annex presents detailed results from the survey used to identify financial solutions and enabling investment conditions discussed in Chapter 3.

Survey methodology

The survey targeted industry, the private sector and government agencies actively engaged in the development of green hydrogen (the survey questions are available in the following section). The selection of survey participants was carefully carried out by the OECD and the FEI to ensure data quality and relevance. The following aspects were considered:

• profile of stakeholders (e.g. industrial developers, financial institutions, policymakers)

• geographical location

• business segment within the green hydrogen value chain

• ticket size of the projects

• years of experience in the sector

The survey was structured into three key sections, designed to assess the investment profile of relevant stakeholders and identify the most effective financial solutions to accelerate green hydrogen development. The first section aimed to map out key players in the hydrogen industry by categorising respondents based on their institutional type (e.g. Multilateral Development Banks [MDBs], insurance companies, Export Credit Agencies [ECAs], investment funds, non-profit organisations). The second section sought to pinpoint the specific steps within the low-carbon hydrogen value chain where respondents are currently investing or plan to invest in the short term (6-18 months) in Egypt. These steps included renewable energy/power, production, storage, transport and distribution, end-use applications and integrated end-to-end project structures. Additionally, participants were asked to indicate their investment ticket size, ranging from below USD 100 million to over USD 10 billion. The third section explored financial instruments that could help overcome financing barriers for green hydrogen projects in Egypt. Respondents were asked to assess the relevance of:

• De-risking instruments, such as buyer credit guarantees, contractors-all-risk insurance, credit default swaps, foreign currency guarantees, interest rate swaps, loan loss reserves, offtake guarantees, partial credit guarantees, performance guarantees, political risk investment insurance and subsidised or performance-linked loans.

• Economic instruments, including auctions and contracts for difference, carbon credits, carbon taxes and emissions trading systems, carbon removal certificates, extended producer responsibility fees, grants and subsidies, green procurement incentives and tax incentives.

The survey was distributed from 30 January to 27 February 2025 to 66 targeted stakeholders, with 14 completed responses, resulting in a response rate of 21%. The majority of respondents (65%) were from industrial corporations, including developers from cement, chemicals, steel and power companies. Other respondents included representatives of private banks, governments and non-profit organisations located in Egypt. The survey was distributed via email and was conducted under confidentiality guidelines, ensuring that responses were anonymised and aggregated to provide meaningful insights for the report.

The results show that industrial corporations dominate the stakeholder landscape, comprising 65% of all actors, while non-profit organisations account for the next largest share at 14%. Private banks, international organisations and government bodies each represent an equal 7%. Respondents were asked to choose one of the following categories: bilateral development bank, export credit agency, government, industrial corporation, insurance corporation, international organisation, investment fund, multilateral development bank, non-profit organisation, pension fund, private bank or research/think tank.

The survey results on work experience in the clean hydrogen industry reveal that the sector is dominated by relatively new professionals, with nine respondents (64% of participants) having only 2-4 years of experience. In contrast, only one person each reported experience in the 5-8-year and 8-10-year ranges. Meanwhile, three respondents (21%) claimed more than 10 years of experience.

Most investors in Egypt’s low-carbon hydrogen sector are focusing their short-term (6-18 months) commitments on upstream activities, with renewable energy/power generation topping the list (11 responses) as the critical foundation for green hydrogen. Production follows as the next priority (6), while far fewer stakeholders are targeting storage (2), transport and distribution (2), or integrated project development (2). End-use applications rank lowest (1), indicating that, for now, market players are primarily intent on securing clean power supply and electrolysis capacity before scaling downstream infrastructure or consumer-facing hydrogen solutions.

The survey reveals that most organisations (8 out of 22) are targeting relatively small-scale low‑carbon hydrogen and associated projects in Egypt, with expected ticket sizes below USD 100 million. A smaller group (3) plans mid-range investments between USD 100-500 million, while very few are eyeing larger undertakings: one respondent each in the USD 500 million-1 billion, USD 1-3 billion, and > USD 10 billion brackets, and none in the USD 3-10 billion range. This distribution suggests a market still in its early stages, where stakeholders favour more modest, lower-risk commitments while a handful are preparing to back large-scale

Results show that foreign currency guarantees and offtake guarantees are viewed as the most crucial tools, with 64% and 57% of respondents rating them as “very relevant,” respectively (Figure 3.2). Political risk investment insurance and buyer credit guarantees follow with moderate importance. The instruments deemed least critical are partial credit guarantees, with only 14% considering them “very relevant” despite 64% seeing them as “relevant.” Performance guarantees show a mixed assessment with 21% rating them “very relevant” and 57% as “relevant.” Subsidised loan terms/Performance Based Incentives and loan loss reserve (LLR) have identical ratings for “very relevant” (29%) but differ in their overall relevance distributions. Across all instruments, the percentage of “not relevant” responses remains consistently low (7-14%), indicating broad recognition of these financial tools’ importance in Egypt’s investment landscape.

Results show that carbon credits and grants/subsidies emerge as the most critical tools, with 57% of respondents rating both as “very relevant.” Carbon tax and emission trading systems follow closely with 50% considering them “very relevant” and the remaining 50% as “relevant,” making them uniquely rated with no negative assessments. Green procurement shows moderate importance with 36% “very relevant” ratings and 50% “relevant”. The remaining instruments (CO₂ removal certificates, tax incentives, and auctions/contracts for difference) all received 29% “very relevant” ratings with varying distributions of other assessments. Extended producer responsibility fees rank lowest, with no “very relevant” ratings and the highest combined “not relevant” and “limited relevance” percentages (57%). Overall, direct financial incentives (grants, credits) and carbon pricing mechanisms are viewed as most effective for developing Egypt’s low-carbon hydrogen sector, while extended producer responsibility approaches appear less appealing.