Eliminating the U.S. Federal Budget Deficit by 1993

This paper uses the OECD's economic model, INTERLINK, to examine the consequences of eliminating the U.S. federal government deficit. Such action could lead to either lower real interest rates, lower inflation rates or a smaller current account deficit, depending on the stance of monetary policy. The elimination of the U.S. Federal deficit over the medium term could significantly lower the U.S. inflation rate and improve the current account deficit, if nominal interest rates were held constant in the face of falling inflation rates. In the absence of a reduction in the fiscal deficit, a significant increase in interest rates would be necessary to achieve the same reduction in the inflation rate. If, however, policy tightening is not necessary to contain inflation, a reduction in the fiscal deficit might be accompanied by a fall in nominal and real interest rates. In this case, a reduction in the fiscal deficit would not necessarily result in an improvement in the current account ...