Since 2020, Egypt’s economy has faced multiple external shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions in the region. Despite this, real growth remained resilient; it exceeded 4.4% in FY2024/2025 and is forecast to reach 5.0% and 5.3% in FY2025/2026 and FY2026/2027 respectively (OECD, 2024[1]).
Fiscal policy is currently being implemented under challenging external and monetary conditions. Inflation reached 38% in September 2023 before moderating in early 2024 and recording 13.9% in July 2025, due to tighter monetary policy and easing supply disruptions (Central Bank of Egypt, 2025[2]). Despite this, Egypt has made notable progress in fiscal consolidation since 2020. While the central government budget deficit has widened from 6.8% of GDP in FY 2020/21 to 7.2% in FY 2024/25, the primary surplus has strengthened, rising from 1.3 of GDP in FY 2020/21 to 3.5% by end of FY 2024/25, a historic high and exceeding the target. Following a period of elevated debt ratios due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, the government set a nominal general government debt ceiling of around 96.4% of GDP for FY 2024/25; it also set a target of reducing the central government debt to below 80% by FY 2026/2027 and below 72% over the medium term. This ceiling marks a step toward institutionalising fiscal discipline, as it requires parliamentary approval for any breach. In FY 2024/25, this ceiling was respected.
Egypt’s central government debt portfolio is predominantly composed of domestic debt, but the share of external debt has risen steadily from 19% of GDP in FY 2019/20 to 22.9% in June 2024/25 Ministry of Finance of Egypt. The burden of debt repayments, both external and domestic, continues to pose a major fiscal challenge, due to high interest rates and currency devaluation. On the domestic side, interest rates have risen sharply to contain inflation (although the CBE was able to lower rates by over 7% in 2025) and on the external side, successive currency devaluations have led to a noticeable rise in external interest and principal payments when expressed in local currency.
Over the past five years, Egypt’s public revenues as a percentage of GDP have fluctuated, reflecting both structural reforms and the impact of challenging economic conditions. However, stronger tax administration, improved compliance through digitalisation, and enhanced enforcement efforts that expanded the effective tax base led to a notable 35.2% year-on-year increase during FY 2024/25. A package of Value Added Tax policy reforms approved by Parliament in June 2025 will increase revenue further and reduce fragmentation in the tax system.
Expenditure trends have been shaped by competing pressures to consolidate the fiscal position, maintain essential public investment, and protect the most vulnerable citizens. Expenditure control is, however, undermined by a rising interest burden, which now accounts for nearly half of total expenditure and more than two thirds of total revenues (Figure 1), as well as expanding social protection commitments. Capital spending has been restrained to align with the government’s primary surplus targets. Sustaining quality public services while containing recurrent expenditures will remain a central challenge.