This is an era defined by multiple crises, shocks and uncertainty. Not a single context with high to extreme fragility is on track to achieve almost half of SDG goals. To face these challenges with confidence, members of the OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC) and their partners need fresh ideas. The first step is to understand the resilience required to deal with the risks we all face, which is at the heart of the OECD’s work on multidimensional fragility.
All of the 177 contexts analysed by the OECD multidimensional fragility framework are exposed to some level of fragility. In this 2025 edition of the States of Fragility report, 61 are identified as experiencing high or extreme levels of fragility. These contexts are home to 25% of the world’s population – 2.1 billion people – but 72% of the world’s extreme poor in 2024, a share which could surge to 92% by 2040. Their fragility profiles differ significantly. For some, extreme fragility is a chronic reality that leaves generations trapped in poverty. For others, it is compounded by the occurrence of conflict: death and destruction go hand in hand with acute food insecurity, the distorting effect of conflict economies and forced displacement; over 100 million refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs), 80% of the global total, originate from contexts with high or extreme levels of fragility. Conflicts in the Middle East, the Horn of Africa (Ethiopia, Sudan) and Myanmar continue to have devasting effects, with violence exacerbating significant underlying fragilities such as water scarcity or economic exclusion. The human dimension of fragility, introduced into the framework in 2022, has also been negatively affected by conflicts – the absence of peace means health and education remain beyond the reach of effective policy responses for large populations.
For donors, understanding fragility is also essential for policy success in a competitive geopolitical landscape. So many issues that need to be addressed, from tax and trade to education and justice, are interconnected. Fragility analysis identifies the points of risk and resilience and the connections between them that matter, which helps policy makers balance and prioritise the application of the diplomatic, development, humanitarian, peace and security instruments at their disposal to best effect.
Ignoring the drivers of fragility is to cede political and economic advantage to others in the longer term. Sustaining political commitment on development means being smarter on how, where and why development matters. This report also shows that, as the international order fragments, and the dynamics of donor-partner relations change, the agency of contexts with high and extreme fragility is evolving, with a growing willingness to pursue development goals through partnerships outside of familiar systems and frameworks. This evolution is symbolic of an era not just of contestation but also of competition, to which international development co-operation models must adapt to rapidly. DAC members need to redefine their bilateral and collective strategic offers and compete to establish their value for partners.
Finally, the report warns OECD members against focusing too narrowly on security at the expense of development as a strategy for supporting peace in partner countries. In contexts exposed to high and extreme fragility, the strategic value of steady, robust and adaptive development policies stands on its own merits, but it can also be essential for balanced and cost-effective foreign policy. Understanding fragility helps ensure that tight budgets are allocated to best effect to drive future resilience, domestically and internationally. As deaths from violence continue to rise, and with 27 of the contexts experiencing high and extreme fragility also exposed to organised violence, investing early to prevent conflict costs much less – financially and in terms of human suffering – than paying later to deal with its consequences.
This States of Fragility report marks a quarter of a century of OECD work on the topic. During this time, the Organisation has established itself as a thought leader and a global knowledge source on fragility analysis. It has consistently challenged assumptions and responded to the feedback of partners, engaging directly with leaders, activists, academics and the community of analysts across multilateral institutions. In keeping with that tradition, this edition introduces a new classification framework that drops the label of “fragile context” as a generic term, to focus instead on the value of fragility analysis as a multidimensional concept that is more or less present across all countries, systems and communities.
Understanding global and local fragility – for instance, the linkages between economic security and resilience, the intensifying climate crisis, digital disruptions and challenging population dynamics – is the starting point for the strategic advancement of OECD standards and partnerships in support of sustainable development. The relationships the OECD is building with people and organisations in contexts with high levels of fragility are a vital contribution to global cohesion, one that is based on inclusive policy dialogue, mutual learning and standard setting. The aim is to level the global playing field and avoid a fragmented global economy governed by competing standards. This work contributes to the OECD’s pursuit of its core objective of ensuring better policies for better lives. It is also an essential part of its offer to international fora such as the G20, G7 and APEC, and enhances its engagement with the United Nations system.
María del Pilar Garrido Gonzalo
Director,
Development Co-operation Directorate, OECD