Why ocean economy productivity is declining and what policymakers can do about it

Increasing access to real-time ocean data for planning shipping routes can optimise in-voyage performance, using less fuel and cutting emissions. Progress in estimating fish location and identifying species can reduce fishers’ fuel costs and time spent in potentially dangerous environments, while also reducing harmful bycatch. Advanced ocean models can locate better offshore renewable energy sites, placing turbines further from shore where wind speeds are faster and seafloor disturbance kept to a minimum.

These are the kind of productivity gains that can help the ocean economy stay resilient and sustainable by increasing the efficiency with which inputs are transformed into outputs.  

Targeting ocean economy productivity improvements is also an essential objective for supporting the conservation, restoration, and sustainable use of marine ecosystems. And recent international discussions, including at the 2025 UN Ocean Conference and through reforms by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), have highlighted ocean economy productivity as an important lever for a cleaner, healthier ocean.

Yet, OECD research suggests productivity increases are becoming elusive in the ocean economy. Without stronger productivity growth, the ocean economy risks becoming less dynamic, less innovative, and less able to meet the scale of change required to restore and sustain marine ecosystems.

Between 1995 and 2020, the real-terms gross value added (GVA) of the ocean economy doubled from USD 1.3 trillion to USD 2.6 trillion, even as employment remained relatively steady. A similar number of workers producing a greater volume of output each year suggests growing labour productivity. And OECD estimates do indeed show that, globally, the ocean economy’s labour productivity track record compares well to the economy overall.

Deeper OECD productivity analysis tells a different story, however. 

Most of the growth over the previous 25 years was driven by adding more capital inputs such as machinery and physical structures to the production process. In fact, OECD estimates suggest that the overall efficiency with which capital and labour are combined in production, i.e. multifactor productivity (MFP), declined across much of the global ocean economy.

Only three ocean economic activity groups – maritime shipbuilding and equipment manufacturing, maritime transport and ports, and marine and maritime trade, transport and R&D services – recorded positive MFP growth, albeit small in magnitude. Offshore oil and gas extraction and offshore industry and marine and coastal tourism, which generate the vast majority of ocean economy gross value added, saw zero or negative MFP growth.

This suggests that, on average, the ocean economy is not making the most of intangible improvements in input efficiency that can contribute to more sustainable ocean economic activity. 

Furthermore, OECD estimates suggest a striking imbalance in the types of capital inputs being deployed in the ocean economy, and their relative contributions to ocean economic growth. The OECD have estimated the contribution of capital inputs to the ocean economy production process, so called capital services, from assets such as machinery and infrastructure separately from information and communication technology (ICT) assets. This work suggests that growth in traditional machinery-and-infrastructure-type capital services has vastly outpaced growth in ICT capital services across all areas of the ocean economy. 

Differences between the ocean economy’s utilisation of ICT capital and non-ICT capital may represent a missed opportunity that will only become worse unless action is taken. The digital technologies that make up the core of modern ICT productive capital stocks can be powerful drivers of productivity gains by enabling smarter logistics, more efficient resource use, and innovation in service delivery. They are likely to become even more important in the future as effective uses of artificial intelligence and robotics become widespread.  

In short, without efforts to bolster growth driven by the productive use of ICT capital inputs, the ocean economy risks missing out on the productivity gains that digital technologies can enable.

Looking forward to 2050, the ocean economy faces complex challenges that will shape its trajectory. Climate change, the global energy transition, geopolitical tensions, and shifting demographics are but a few examples. Economic modelling by the OECD suggests these shaping forces are likely to impede the growth potential of the ocean economy.  

Under a “stalled transition” scenario marked by unchanged energy policies and sluggish productivity, the ocean economy could shrink by 20% relative to 2020 levels. A more hopeful “accelerated transition” scenario, driven by strong climate action and a digital technology productivity push, could see the ocean economy grow by 40% by 2050.

To unlock the ocean economy’s full potential and fix faltering productivity, the OECD recommends a three-pronged approach:

Future-proof the ocean economy productive capital stock

Tilting growth in the ocean economy productive capital stock towards ICT capital should push the ocean economy in a more sustainable and productive direction. Digital infrastructure, data systems, and data-driven technologies can transform how the ocean economy operates while helping to conserve, sustainably use, and restore marine ecosystems. Public and private investment in ocean economic activity could focus more on driving efficiency through the better use of digital technologies by the ocean economy labour force.

Target ocean economy multifactor productivity gains 

Governments should prioritise policies that enhance the efficacy with which the ocean economy uses its productive capital stock and improve the skills composition of the ocean economy labour force. This includes investing in research, development and innovation, and providing support for innovative products with potential to get to market. It also means fostering a labour force possessing the skills required for the future through education and training. This might be especially true in lower income economies where capacity for training in high-tech ocean economy jobs of the future is particularly low.

Accelerate the ocean economy’s contribution to the global energy transition

Phasing out offshore oil and gas extraction in favour of cleaner ocean energy sources is essential for climate goals and long-term economic sustainability. Managing a structural decline in offshore oil and gas extraction, which has traditionally been the second largest ocean economic activity according to OECD data, must be done carefully to support affected communities and sectors. However, accelerating the global energy transition means shifting resources towards highly productive areas of the ocean economy such as renewable energies.

The ocean economy stands at a crossroads. The track record on ocean economy growth is impressive, but the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future. Without a renewed focus on productivity, through embracing digital transformations and accelerating the transition to cleaner energy, the ocean economy risks stagnation or even decline. The knock-on effects on the health of marine ecosystems of a failure to move away from business-as-usual could be substantial.

OECD research sends a clear signal: Fixing faltering ocean economy productivity trends is a strategic imperative for countries hoping to achieve the conservation, sustainable use, and restoration of marine ecosystems. By acting now, policymakers can increase the chances the ocean economy remains a resilient source of prosperity for decades to come, while maintaining and even improving ocean health.