GDP growth will moderate from 5.3% in 2022 to around 3% over the projection period. Inflation will decline but remain above 40%. This will dent household purchasing power while heightened uncertainty will hold back investment. Export growth will slow as external demand weakens. The unemployment rate is projected to stay above 10% in 2023. Large external financing needs and low reserve buffers leave the economy highly vulnerable to shocks.
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For a more inclusive and sustained recovery structural challenges such as low labour force participation of women, widespread informality, weak skills, rigid employment rules hampering reallocation and large share of low-quality employment have to be addressed. The COVID-19 related contraction in economic activity affected informal workers the hardest, as many work in contact-intensive services such as tourism, catering and retail trade.
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2021 Structural Reform Priorities