GDP growth will slow from 2.4% in 2022 to -0.1% in 2023, before picking up to 2.4% in 2024. Higher energy and commodity prices and supply disruptions to gas and oil imports from Russia have triggered steep rises in the cost of living and a risk of energy shortages. Lower global growth, persistent constraints in global supply chains and tight financing conditions will hold back activity in 2023. Inflation will start subsiding in 2023 but will remain well above the 2% target.
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The recovery offers an opportunity to focus on productivity-enhancing investment and upskilling, including better targeting of R&D support and improved business environment.
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2021 Structural Reform Priorities