- Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a major public health challenge in Czechia
- Unless action is taken, the NCD burden will continue to grow
- The economic and social imperative to act
- Czechia can achieve meaningful health and economic gains by addressing NCD risk factors
- Prevention drives larger economic benefits than cure
- New NCD cases
- Premature mortality
- Health expenditure
- Workforce output
- GDP
- Tackling NCD risk factors in Czechia could bring additional safety co-benefits
The Health and Economic Benefits of Tackling Non‑Communicable Diseases: Czechia
Table of contents
Despite international commitments, national policy initiatives and health promotion programmes, the burden of NCDs continues to pose a substantial challenge across OECD and European Union (EU) countries (Box 1).
NCDs are long-lasting health conditions, that typically develop slowly and progress over time. NCDs include cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) (such as chronic heart failure and strokes), cancers, chronic respiratory diseases (such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)), and diabetes. These conditions are the leading cause of death worldwide (IHME, 2025[1]).
The OECD analyses focus on four NCD groups: cancers, COPD, CVDs and diabetes. This aligns with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.4: “By 2030, reduce by one third premature mortality from non-communicable diseases through prevention and treatment and promote mental health and well-being”, which looks at cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, CVDs and diabetes (United Nations, n.d.[2]).
Risk factors such as air pollution, harmful alcohol use, insufficient physical activity, obesity, smoking, and unhealthy diet are major drivers of the NCD burden. In 2022, Czechia's overall risk factor profile was mixed: one more favourable than the OECD average, three lagged behind, one was close to the OECD average (within 5% of the indicator), and one was missing (Figure 1). Risk factors that stand out as particularly concerning are alcohol and air pollution, where Czechia had 11.6 litres/year alcohol consumption per person compared to the OECD average of 8.7 litres/year, and 14.1ug/m3 of PM2.5 compared to the OECD average of 11.2ug/m3 of PM2.5.
Risk factor levels are dynamic and influenced by social, cultural and economic determinants, including policy action. Analyses using the OECD Strategic Public Health Planning for Non-Communicable Diseases (SPHeP-NCD) model1 indicate that, between 2010 and 2022, overall changes in risk factors have increased the incidence of new NCD cases, relative to a scenario where 2010 risk factor levels were maintained (Figure 2). As a result of changes in risk factors since 2010, there will be 3 250 more new NCDs per year, on average, over the period 2026 to 2050, than if risk factors had remained at their 2010 levels.
The future prevalence of NCDs will be driven by several factors. First, risk factor levels in the population will play a decisive role in the determining the number of new NCD cases. Second, advances in early detection, treatment, and disease management mean that people will live longer with NCDs. While this is an unequivocal public health success, it does mean that there will be more people living with NCDs, increasing the demand for healthcare services. Third, population ageing will continue to increase the NCD burden.
In Czechia, even if risk factor prevalence, survival rates and population size remain constant at current levels, OECD analyses indicate that by 2050 there would be a:
25% increase in the number of cases of NCDs
64% increase in the number of people living with at least two concurrent NCDs
55% increase in per capita health spending on NCDs
NCDs affect far more than health outcomes: they influence how people live and work, strain families and communities, and impose a growing burden on health systems and economies. OECD analyses find that:
In Czechia, 49% of all premature deaths (i.e. deaths before the age of 75) are attributable to the four NCDs examined. This includes 23% due to cancer, 22% due to CVDs, 2% due to diabetes and 3% due to COPD. Men have a higher rate of premature mortality from NCDs than women, at 239 per 100 000 for men and 117 per 100 000 for women.
Fewer NCDs would lower health spending, increase workforce productivity, and strengthen economic growth in Czechia. If the four NCDs covered in the OECD SPHeP NCDs model were eliminated, total health expenditure would be 47% lower on average, over the period 2026-2050.
If there were no NCDs, the workforce would be healthier and more productive, with lower absenteeism and presenteeism, resulting in a gain equivalent to an additional 179 538 full-time equivalents (FTEs).
At the macroeconomic level, reduced premature mortality and increased productivity would translate into a 4.8% boost in annual GDP, on average over 2026-2050. This includes 1.0% due to cancer, 1.1% due to CVDs, 1.2% due to COPD and 1.5% due to diabetes.
The challenge of addressing NCDs is complex, given the multiple risk factors and the wide range of policy entry points. However, clear priorities can be identified by assessing the relative impact of different risk factors on health and the economy, and by benchmarking performance against leading OECD and EU countries. Here, priority areas for action on risk factors are identified by aligning the prevalence of NCD risk factor in Czechia to levels achieved in the top 25% of OECD and EU countries, for each age and sex group2.
If Czechia was to achieve the current Top Quartile prevalence across all six risk factors (i.e. air pollution, harmful alcohol use, obesity, physical activity, smoking and unhealthy diet) starting in 20263, then on average over 2026-2050, compared to current projections:
There would be 92 835 fewer new NCD cases per year
Annual premature mortality (i.e. deaths below the age of 75) would be 18.9% lower
Total annual health expenditure would be 10.0% lower
The workforce would gain 77 822 full-time equivalents (FTEs)
Annual GDP would be 2.1% higher
Comprehensive efforts to promote healthy lifestyles are essential for improving population health and ensuring good health for all. However, a substantial share of the benefits from risk-factor prevention can be achieved by focusing on just two or three key priority risk factors. The leading priority alone (obesity) accounts for 52% of all new cases avoided; the top two (obesity and smoking) deliver 70% of the potential impact; and the top three (obesity, smoking and air pollution) deliver 86%.
When it comes to premature mortality, the top three risk factor priorities for Czechia are obesity, smoking and harmful alcohol use, which together can deliver 82% of the impact. The list of top priorities for mortality may differ slightly from that for new cases avoided, as premature mortality reflects not only the number of cases prevented but also factors such as disease severity and age at onset.
In terms of economic gains, the top three priorities to reduce healthcare expenditure are obesity, smoking and air pollution, which together account for 85% of the potential impact. When it comes to GDP, tackling obesity, harmful alcohol use and smoking together delivers 84% of the total impact on GDP.
The impact of achieving the top three risk factor priorities on health and the economy are summarised in Table 1.
Note: *Proportion of impact is the impact achieved from aligning the top three risk factors to the Top Quartile rate, expressed as a percentage of total impact from aligning the prevalence of all risk factors to the Top Quartile level. For example, 80% means that the top three priorities account for 80% of the impact of aligning all risk factors to the Top Quartile.
Source: OECD SPHeP NCDs model, 2025
While action on risk factors aims to stop NCDs before they occur, once a disease has already developed, the focus should be on treating it early and effectively, to prevent complications or death. The quality of care for NCDs is partially reflected in the survival rates of those who become ill. As survival rates vary significantly across countries, there remains substantial scope to improve care for NCDs.
However, while improved treatment outcomes are key, analyses using the OECD SPHeP-NCD model indicate that addressing the root causes of NCDs still delivers broader health and economic benefits. For example:
The economic gains from addressing risk factors are far greater than those achieved through improved survival rates: The impact of reducing obesity on GDP is more than 12 times larger than the impact of increasing CVD survival rates
Similarly, aligning CVD survival rates in Czechia to the Top Quartile would reduce the total premature mortality by about 4.5% on average between 2026 and 2050, while improved cancer survival rates would reduce premature mortality by 3.7%. However, as a major risk factor for many NCDs ‑ including cancer and CVDs ‑ and a leading contributor to premature mortality, reducing obesity prevalence to the Top Quartile would have a larger impact, reducing premature mortality by 8.4%.
The graphs below show the impact of aligning risk factor and survival rates in Czechia to the Top Quartile, on NCD cases, premature mortality, health expenditure, workforce output, and GDP.
Tackling NCD risk factors such as harmful alcohol use and unhealthy diet can bring a range of societal co-benefits that extend beyond health including personal safety from reduced homicides and road traffic accidents. For example, aligning alcohol consumption in Czechia to the top quartile of countries could reduce homicides by 9.6% and road traffic accidents by 10.7%.
References
[1] IHME (2025), GBD Results tool, https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/ (accessed on 17 November 2025).
[6] OECD (2025), Health at a Glance 2025: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/8f9e3f98-en.
[7] OECD (2025), OECD Health Statistics, https://.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/oecd-health-statistics.html (accessed on 4 December 2025).
[3] OECD (2025), OECD SPHeP-NCD documentation, http://oecdpublichealthexplorer.org/ncd-doc/ (accessed on 11 December 2025).
[5] OECD Environmental Statistics (2025), Mean population-weighted exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) 2020, https://data-explorer.oecd.org/s/47x (accessed on 4 February 2026).
[2] United Nations (n.d.), Goal 3 | Department of Economic and Social Affairs, https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal3#targets_and_indicators (accessed on 17 November 2025).
[4] WHO (2025), “Prevalence of insufficient physical activity among adults aged 18+ years (crude estimate) (%)”, https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/indicators/indicator-details/GHO/prevalence-of-insufficient-physical-activity-among-adults-aged-18-years-(crude-estimate)-(-) (accessed on 13 March 2025).
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The full book is available in English: OECD (2026), The Health and Economic Benefits of Tackling Non-Communicable Diseases, OECD Health Policy Studies, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/e20cbbc3-en.
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← 1. As there are a large number of different cancers and CVDs, not all could be covered in the analysis conducted using the OECD SPHeP NCDs model (OECD, 2025[3]). The model focuses primarily on public health amenable diseases: those that are related to risk factors and more readily preventable through public health interventions. The cancers covered in the model account for 71% of all cancer deaths in the OECD, and 88% of all risk factor-related cancer deaths. The CVDs included in the model account for 78% of all CVD-related deaths in the OECD, and 87% of all risk factor-related CVD deaths (IHME, 2025[1]).
← 2. This Top Quartile approach highlights areas with the greatest potential for improvement. If a country shows minimal gains when aligning the prevalence of its risk factors with the top quartile thresholds, this indicates that it is already performing at a top quartile level for most age- and sex- specific groups for those risk factors. Nevertheless, the country could still achieve additional benefits by further improving beyond these thresholds.
← 3. In this context, achieving the current prevalence refers to a scenario where the country immediately reaches the current Top Quartile age- and sex- specific prevalence for all risk factors starting in 2026, rather than reaching it gradually, and then projecting the impact through 2050.