Supply-chain disruptions have slowed but not arrested Canada’s economic recovery. With a fourth wave of infections receding, output is projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021 and grow faster than trend at 3.9% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023. Inflation is projected to moderate as production bottlenecks clear, before strengthening again as unemployment falls. More persistent supply constraints could, however, mean that inflation stays higher for longer and delay a projected acceleration in trade and consumer spending.
Building a more resilient and inclusive economy requires strengthening welfare policy. The pandemic highlighted a general problem of weak backing for those unemployed or experiencing poverty, the gender-wage gap remains large and Indigenous peoples remain under-privileged in most socio-economic dimensions.
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2021 Structural Reform Priorities