GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.7% in 2023 before rebounding to 3.1% in 2024, supported by investments from EU funds. Exports will be adversely affected by the deteriorating macroeconomic situation in Europe, while high energy prices and rising interest rates will weigh on consumption. Inflation will slowly decline amidst stabilising energy prices and subdued economic activity.
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The pandemic risks interrupting impressive income convergence and raises the urgency of making growth more inclusive. Addressing long-standing patchy coverage of social benefits and improving provision and efficiency of education and training should become top policy priorities in the recovery.
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2021 Structural Reform Priorities