After a strong recovery by 5% in 2021, GDP growth is expected to slow significantly in 2022, to 0.6%, before picking up to 1.2% in 2023. Rising inflation, the war in Ukraine, and tighter financial conditions have eroded economic sentiment and purchasing power, which is expected to strongly dent domestic demand in the first half of 2022. The 2022 presidential election is adding uncertainty, helping to keep investment subdued until 2023. The labour market recovery has been slow; the participation rate and real labour incomes remain below pre-pandemic levels.
The need to rekindle economic activity after the pandemic only intensifies the urgency of tackling long-standing structural policy challenges. To sustain strong growth productivity needs to increase, as well as protection of those in need and economic opportunities for all.
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2021 Structural Reform Priorities
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe human suffering and triggered a deep recession in Brazil. Economic policies reacted in a timely and decisive manner to the crisis, supporting millions of Brazilians. But a strong and inclusive recovery from the recession will require long-lasting improvements in economic policies. Improving fiscal outcomes remains one of Brazil’s principal challenges given a high debt burden, to which the pandemic has added significantly.