Headline year-on-year inflation in OECD countries as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) continues its downward trajectory, falling to 5.7% in June 2023, down 0.8pp vs. May 2023 and 5.0pp from its peak of 10.7% in October 2022. Five OECD countries registered double-digit inflation in June (vs. nine in May).
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is also falling – but at a slower pace. It fell only 0.3pp to 6.6% in June in OECD countries – just 1.2pp from its peak of 7.8% in October. Among G7 countries, all countries except the US and Canada recorded higher core inflation in June than in October, while in Germany and France core inflation in June increased vs. May. It remains above 6% in the UK and above 5% in Germany.
Central banks will want to continue to signal a tighter monetary policy while inflation rates stay above their 2% targets – and closely monitor its impact on asset prices and the broader economy.
Explore the latest CPI numbers in-depth