The OECD Index of Digital Trade Integration and Openness (INDIGO)

4. “What if” analysis

The WTO Agreement on E-Commerce will increase digital trade integration and openness

Beyond measuring existing integration and openness to digital trade, the INDIGO-t can also be used for counterfactual, “what if” analysis. For example, without prejudice to where and how the AoE is adopted in the context of the WTO architecture, the INDIGO-t can be used to identify the impact of the AoE on overall digital trade integration and openness (Figure 6). Under the assumption that the 71 WTO Members which supported the incorporation of the AoE into Annex IV at the February 2025 General Council Meeting adopt the agreement, global digital trade integration and openness would increase by 21% (the INDIGO-t would go from 0.084 to 0.1).1

Different final memberships would imply different global outcomes. For example, if all 166 WTO Members were to adopt the AoE, global digital trade integration and openness would increase by 244% (the INDIGO-t would go from 0.084 to 0.288). In turn, if the 91 WTO Members that participated in the e-commerce JSI were to adopt the AoE, global digital trade integration and openness would increase by 48% (the INDIGO-t would go from 0.084 to 0.124). 2 Taking the 82 WTO Members that supported the final text would imply an increase in the INDIGO score of 35% (from 0.084 to 0.11).3

Figure 6. Entry into force of the WTO Agreement on E-Commerce would increase digital trade integration and openness significantly

Note: The numbers are based on different assumption about the final composition of the agreement. AoE 71 captures those WTO Member States which supported the incorporation of the agreement into the WTO at the General Council Meeting in February 2025. AoE 82 captures the WTO Member States which signalled support to the “stabilised text”. AoE 91 captures WTO Member States which were part of the discussions. AoE 166 captures full membership (see Annex C for country breakdown).

Source: Own calculations using the OECD INDIGO.

As expected, the more progress a WTO Member has already made in its RTAs on digital trade related issues and in its WTO commitments, the lower the additional contribution of the AoE to digital trade integration and openness (Figure 7). For example, Singapore, which has the highest INDIGO-t, would see its existing integration and openness increase by 30% as a result of the WTO AoE (Figure 7a). The opportunity costs associated with not participating in the WTO Agreement on E-Commerce is also apparent. Viet Nam, which currently ranks 5^th according to the INDIGO-t, would be relegated to the 39^th position should the WTO AoE come into force without them.

The value of participating in the e-commerce agreement for countries that are currently less integrated into digital trade discussions is evident (Figure 7b). For those with the lowest INDIGO-t score in the AoE 71 group, Benin, Burkina Faso, Gambia and Paraguay, the AoE would increase digital trade integration and openness by 100%.

Figure 7. The WTO Agreement on E-Commerce is set to significantly increase global integration and openness to digital trade

Note: AoE 71 captures those WTO Member States which supported the incorporation of the agreement into the WTO at the General Council Meeting in February 2025 (see Annex C for country breakdown).

Source: Own calculations based on the OECD INDIGO.

Notes

← 1.  For a list of AoE 71 WTO Members, see WT/GC/W/963.

← 2.  See here for a list of the 91 WTO Members participating in these discussions.

← 3.  For a list of AoE 82 WTO Members, see INF/ECOM/87.