Tackling the Impact of Cancer on Health, the Economy and Society: United States
Table of contents
Cancer is the second leading cause of mortality in the United States, and one in five premature (before the age of 75) deaths (19%) will be due to cancer between 2023 and 2050. In total, there will be an estimated 240 200 premature deaths from cancer every year, and the average population life expectancy will be 2.0 years lower than if there were no cancer.
1 in 5 premature deaths are due to cancer
1. Estimates are calculated by comparing the baseline scenario to a hypothetical scenario in which there is no cancer, and therefore take into account the cost of other diseases. As people who do not develop cancer live longer and develop other diseases, this can lead to an overall increase in health expenditure for some countries.
At least three factors will drive up cancer health expenditure in the future. First, the risk of cancer increases with age. As the population of the United States ages, this will lead to a 37% increase in per capita health spending on cancer between 2023 and 2050, all other things being equal. Second, efforts to reduce variation in cancer outcomes across countries could mean people survive for longer, require treatment for longer, and can develop cancer again. This would add another 7% in cancer cost over the same period. Third, higher treatment cost from new medicines and technologies could further increase the total cost.
Source: OECD SPHeP NCDs model, 2024.
If the United States were to improve cancer screening, diagnosis and treatment to achieve the best survival rates observed in the OECD and EU, this would…
prevent one in five premature cancer deaths,
increase the population average life expectancy by 4 months,
add the equivalent of 39 600 full-time workers,
increase overall health expenditure by 1.1%.
Note: % of total refers to the proportion of total premature mortality for a given cancer that can be prevented by improving survival rates for the same cancer
Source: OECD SPHeP NCDs model, 2024.
Meeting international policy targets on major cancer risk factors would prevent around 7% of all cancer cases, avert 10% of premature deaths due to cancer, and reduce the burden of cancer on health expenditure by 7% in the United States.
Optimal vaccination for human papillomavirus (HPV) in the United States, in which a high coverage rate provides enough herd immunity to eliminate all infections by the targeted HPV types, could prevent 88% of premature deaths from cervical cancer, and reduce health expenditure on cancer by USD 3 022 million per year.
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