Tackling the Impact of Cancer on Health, the Economy and Society: Bulgaria
Table of contents
Cancer is the third leading cause of mortality in Bulgaria, and one in five premature (before the age of 75) deaths (21%) will be due to cancer between 2023 and 2050. In total, there will be an estimated 7 400 premature deaths from cancer every year, and the average population life expectancy will be 1.9 years lower than if there were no cancer.
1 in 5 premature deaths are due to cancer
1. Estimates are calculated by comparing the baseline scenario to a hypothetical scenario in which there is no cancer, and therefore take into account the cost of other diseases. As people who do not develop cancer live longer and develop other diseases, this can lead to an overall increase in health expenditure for some countries.
At least three factors will drive up cancer health expenditure in the future. First, the risk of cancer increases with age. As the population of Bulgaria ages, this will lead to a 45% increase in per capita health spending on cancer between 2023 and 2050, all other things being equal.
Second, efforts to reduce variation in cancer outcomes across countries could mean people survive for longer, require treatment for longer, and can develop cancer again. This would add another 29% in cancer cost over the same period. Third, higher treatment cost from new medicines and technologies could further increase the total cost.
Source: OECD SPHeP NCDs model, 2024.
If Bulgaria were to improve cancer screening, diagnosis and treatment to achieve the best survival rates observed in the OECD and EU, this would…
prevent one in three premature cancer deaths,
increase the population average life expectancy by 9 months,
add the equivalent of 3 000 full-time workers,
increase overall health expenditure by 1.4%.
Note: % of total refers to the proportion of total premature mortality for a given cancer that can be prevented by improving survival rates for the same cancer
Source: OECD SPHeP NCDs model, 2024.
Meeting international policy targets on major cancer risk factors would prevent around 9% of all cancer cases, and avert 13% of premature deaths due to cancer in Bulgaria.
Optimal vaccination for human papillomavirus (HPV) in Bulgaria, in which a high coverage rate provides enough herd immunity to eliminate all infections by the targeted HPV types, could prevent 89% of premature deaths from cervical cancer, and reduce health expenditure on cancer by BGN 8 million (Bulgarian lev) per year.
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