Regional Plastics Outlook for Southeast and East Asia

Executive summary

Southeast and East Asia, with ASEAN Plus Three (APT) countries at the heart of it, is key in the global fight against plastic pollution

Southeast and East Asia plays a pivotal role in ending plastic pollution. At the heart of this region is the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) grouping of countries, comprising the Member States of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), along with Japan, Korea and China (jointly labelled as Plus Three). These 13 countries vary greatly in geography, socio-economic conditions and capacity to address plastic pollution. ASEAN Member States range from lower middle-income countries (Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, the Philippines, Viet Nam; referred to as ASEAN LMIC) to high- and upper middle-income countries (Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand; referred to as ASEAN HIC & UMIC).

Together, the APT accounts for nearly one-third of global GDP and is central to global plastics value chains. Plastics use in the region has surged almost nine-fold, from 17 million tonnes (Mt) in 1990 to 152 Mt in 2022, with more than half in short-lived applications like packaging. This rapid increase outpaced global trends and the APT now constitutes almost one-third of global plastics use. The diversity of APT countries is reflected in their annual per capita plastics use, which ranges from 32 kg in ASEAN LMIC to 73 kg in China and over 100 kg in Japan, Korea and most ASEAN HIC & UMIC.

The region is a hotspot for plastic pollution, driven by rising waste generation and insufficient – though improving – waste management. The challenge is aggravated by the region’s geography, which includes long densely populated coastlines, rivers and archipelagic countries, making plastic leakage to the environment more prevalent. In 2022, the APT accounted for 8.4 Mt of plastic leakage to the environment – over one-third of the global total. ASEAN countries contributed 3.5 Mt, of which three-quarters originated in ASEAN LMIC. China contributed for more than one-half of APT leakage (4.9 Mt).

APT countries are taking action, with encouraging but uneven progress

In response to growing concerns, most APT countries have adopted national action plans on plastic pollution and strengthened regional co-operation. Positive trends are emerging, with the average recycling rate in the APT (12%) already exceeding the global average (10%). Efforts are underway to improve waste segregation at source, recycling and the use of recycled materials in manufacturing.

Despite this progress, mismanaged plastic waste in the region (29% of total plastic waste) remains a major concern, significantly exceeding the amount that is recycled. APT countries differ widely in waste management capabilities, with significant mismanagement shares in ASEAN (ranging from 27% in Thailand to 72% in Indonesia) and China (26%). ASEAN LMIC face substantial challenges, due to sharp increases in waste with inadequate infrastructure for waste management. Informal and unsafe practices, such as open burning and dumping, persist in most ASEAN countries and China, especially in rural areas.

The scope and effectiveness of policies, as well as related infrastructure development, remain uneven across the region. Measures to curb plastics demand vary in stringency but remain underutilised across most countries. Weak enforcement, due to limited local government capacity, financing constraints and fragmented governance, hampers progress.

Current policies can slow, but not reverse, recent trends in regional plastic leakage

Despite recent progress, current policies remain insufficient to end plastic leakage. In a scenario without additional policies (i.e. Baseline scenario), plastics use in the APT region is projected to almost double, from 152 Mt in 2022 to 280 Mt by 2050, with ASEAN countries expected to see nearly a tripling in plastics use (reaching 83 Mt in 2050). This increase is mostly driven by economic development in the region. Packaging is expected to remain the largest source of plastics use (32% in 2022 and 2050). Meanwhile, the transport sector is projected to see the most significant growth in plastics use, reflecting sectoral growth in motor vehicle manufacturing and transport services in the region.

While waste management is improving in the region, it is unlikely to keep pace with growing waste volumes. Plastic waste is projected to more than double, from 113 Mt in 2022 to 242 Mt in 2050. Recycling is projected to triple, reaching 45 Mt in 2050 (from 14 Mt in 2022), representing 19% of total waste (vs 12% in 2022). Although the share of mismanaged plastic waste would decrease from 29% in 2022 to 23% in 2050, continued increases in waste generation lead to an increase in the amount of mismanaged waste from 33 Mt in 2022 to 56 Mt in 2050.

Annual plastic leakage to the environment is projected to increase from 8.4 Mt in 2022 to 14.1 Mt in 2050, primarily originating in ASEAN LMIC and China, 5.1 Mt of which will reach rivers, coastal areas and oceans. Once released in the environment, plastics persist and often travel across borders. ASEAN LMIC in particular receive significant amounts of plastics accumulating in coastal areas, from APT high- and upper middle-income countries. This trend is expected to persist through 2050, emphasising the importance of regional co-operation.

Ambitious policies and co-operation can end plastic pollution in the region

Ending plastic pollution is a shared global challenge that requires strong commitment across countries. A Global High Stringency scenario, where all countries undertake ambitious action across the plastic lifecycle, offers the largest global environmental benefits at the lowest cost.

However, ambitious action across the plastic lifecycle in the APT region (High Stringency scenario) can already deliver significant regional benefits. Compared to the Baseline scenario, a High Stringency scenario could reduce plastics use in the APT by 28% (from 280 Mt to 201 Mt in the High Stringency scenario) and reduce plastic waste by 23% in 2050 (from 242 Mt to 186 Mt). Secondary plastics could meet all growth in plastics demand, allowing primary plastics use to stabilise below 2022 levels. The average recycling rate is projected to grow to 54% while mismanaged waste declines by 97%.

The macroeconomic costs of a near elimination of plastic leakage are modest in the region (0.8% of GDP loss relative to Baseline in 2050). However, these costs are unevenly spread. The ASEAN region faces steeper costs as a share of GDP in 2050 than the Plus Three (2.4% vs. 0.3% of GDP on average), with ASEAN LMIC bearing the largest burden (2.8%). The uneven distribution of the costs and the higher burden for ASEAN countries underscores the importance of strengthening regional co-operation to ensure all countries have the necessary capacity and support.

Comprehensive but tailored strategies are essential for policy effectiveness

Ending plastic pollution in the APT requires comprehensive strategies tailored to the socio-economic conditions, infrastructure readiness and institutional capacities.

Access to waste collection and environmentally safe disposal is critical. Gaps in rural and underserved areas drive waste mismanagement and plastic leakage. Some ASEAN countries such as Cambodia and Lao PDR require significant improvements in this area. Waste collection targets, domestic financing instruments, and Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes (already in place in Japan and Korea for packaging and durable goods, and being rolled out for packaging in six ASEAN countries) can help expand collection systems.

Significantly scaling up recycling requires introducing and improving waste sorting at the household level, significant investments in recycling infrastructure, better incentives for product design for recycling and market incentives for recycled materials. The informal sector, which plays a key role in waste collection and sorting, needs to be better integrated with the formal sector, for example through the recognition of informal workers as service providers in EPR schemes.

Slowing the growth in demand for plastics is vital for the APT region. Doing so requires broadening the scope through policies such as those aimed at problematic plastics (e.g. short-lived and hard-to-recycle plastics), eco-design, recycled content requirements, chemical regulation, material and product innovation, as well as scaling up support and infrastructure for reuse systems.

Clear policy frameworks can build market confidence and unlock finance, as a major scale up of investments is needed for interventions along the lifecycle of plastics. High Stringency policies can limit overall waste management investment needs for the APT to USD 1.1 trillion between 2022 and 2050. Investment needs would increase by 18% in ASEAN compared to Baseline (reaching USD 211 billion, vs USD 178 billion in Baseline), while they would be slightly below Baseline levels in Japan, Korea and China.

Effective implementation will require overcoming key challenges such as weak monitoring and enforcement, limited local capacity, and the need to integrate informal workers who play a critical role in the waste sector. Multi-stakeholder engagement, targeted capacity-building, and strengthened regional and international co-operation offer opportunities to enhance policy design and implementation, bridge knowledge gaps, and align policy frameworks and standards across countries. With strong commitment, the region can not only protect its own environment and people but also become a global model for ending plastic pollution.