There are 33 individuals aged 65 and over for every 100 persons of working age (ages 20 to 64) on average across all OECD countries while there were only 21 30 years ago. Population ageing has been accelerating as this average old-age to working-age demographic ratio – computed by keeping age thresholds constant – is projected to reach 55 over the next 30 years. The working-age population (20‑64) is projected to decrease by over 30% in the next four decades in Estonia, Greece, Japan, the Slovak Republic and Spain and even over 35% in Italy, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland
Pensions at a Glance 2025
OECD and G20 Indicators
The evolution of old-age to working-age ratios depends on mortality rates, fertility rates and migration. OECD countries have seen prolonged increases in life expectancy that most analysts project to continue, implying an increasing number of older people and of pensioners.
There have also been substantial declines in fertility, which has led to a decrease in the number of workers entering the labour market in many countries. For example, fertility rates fell below the replacement level on average in OECD countries around the mid‑1980s, implying shrinking populations in the long term. In the future, however, there is a great deal of uncertainty over how fertility rates will evolve (Figure 6.1 above).
With an old-age to working age ratio of 54.9 individuals aged 65 and over for 100 persons of working age defined as 20 to 64, Japan ranks highest. Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy and Portugal also have high old-age ratios, at or over 40. By 2054, the old-age to working-age ratio is expected to reach more than 70 in Greece (70.7), Italy (76.6), Japan (80.0), Korea (84.5) and Spain (76.2) (Table 6.2).
By contrast, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico and Türkiye are the youngest countries based on this indicator, with old-age to working-age ratios below 20. In the second half of this century, however, these countries are expected to age considerably. By 2084, the old-age ratio in Colombia, Costa Rica and Türkiye is projected to be above the OECD average of 68.
For the OECD as a whole, the old-age to working-age ratio is projected to increase from 32.6 in 2024 to 55.2 in 2054 and 67.7 in 2084. By far, Korea is facing the most rapid population ageing among OECD countries. The old-age ratio would increase from (7.3 in 1964) 29.3 in 2024 to 122.0 in 2084 and Korea would move from being the tenth youngest country in the OECD in 2024 to the oldest in 2084.
The working-age population (20‑64) is projected to decrease by 13% in the OECD on average by 2064, i.e. by 0.33% per year. It will fall by over 30% in Estonia, Greece, Japan, the Slovak Republic and Spain and even over 35% in Italy, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. However, it is projected to increase by about 10% in Canada and Mexico, 20% in Australia and 70% in Israel, a clear outlier (Figure 6.5). EU countries are heavily represented among the list of countries with large declines, resulting in an average fall of 23% by 2064, nearly double that of the OECD. This will have a significant impact on the financing of pay-as-you-go (PAYG) systems as ageing will reduce the internal rates of return these schemes generate. Even funded pension systems might be negatively affected by rapidly declining working-age populations by lowering output growth, interest rates and financial returns.
Projections of the old-age to working-age ratio vary by source, as shown when comparing those obtained from UN and Eurostat data (Figure 6.6. On average for the EU22 countries in the OECD, projections based on UN data lead to an old-age to working-age ratio which is 3 percentage points higher in 2050 than based on Eurostat data. For Italy and Spain, the projected ratio is 10 percentage points lower and for Austria and Germany it is 8 percentage points lower based on Eurostat compared with UN data. Only four countries – Greece, Latvia, Lithuania and Portugal – show a higher future ratio based on Eurostat versus UN data:
Definition and measurement
The old-age to working-age demographic ratio is defined as the number of individuals aged 65 and over per 100 people of working age defined as those at ages 20 to 64.
Further reading
Boulhol, H., M. Lis and M. Queisser (2022), “Trends in Pension Reforms in OECD Countries”, in Bloom, D., A. Sousa-Poza and U. Sunde (eds.), Handbook on the Economics of Ageing, Routledge, Abingdon.
Boulhol, H. and C. Geppert (2018), Population ageing: Pension policies alone will not prevent the decline in the relative size of the labour force, https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/population-ageing-pension-policies-alone‑will-not-prevent-decline‑relative‑size.
Note: The demographic old-age to working-age ratio is defined as the number of individuals aged 65 and over per 100 people aged between 20 and 64.
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2024), World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition (for future periods: medium-variant forecast).
Change in the working age population (20‑64), 2024‑64, percentage
Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2024 Revision.
Difference in projections for 2050 (EU – UN data source), in percentage points
Note: The demographic old-age to working-age ratio is defined as the number of individuals aged 65 and over per 100 people aged between 20 and 64.
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2024), World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition (for future periods: medium-variant forecast). Eurostat population projections, EUROPOP 2023.