OECD Economic Surveys: Viet Nam 2025

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Economic growth is projected to face headwinds in 2025 and 2026 as exports will weaken amid higher trade barriers, although domestic demand remains solid. Inflation has fallen below 3% but monetary policy should remain vigilant to inflation risks given high credit growth. Improvements in both the monetary and fiscal policy frameworks could lead to stronger growth outcomes and foster policy transparency and predictability.

The economy has rebounded from negative external and domestic shocks in 2023. A slowdown in world trade reduced exports and imports as a share of GDP by 9 and 12 percentage points, respectively. The domestic economy was hit by financial-sector turbulence following the failure of the country’s fifth-largest bank in late 2022 and turbulence in the real estate sector. Typhoon Yagi, the most powerful storm to hit the country in 30 years, unleashed devastating floods and landslides across the economically important northern provinces. Still, GDP increased by 7.1% in 2024, surpassing both the previous year’s growth outcome and the government’s growth target.

Exports have been a key driver of economic growth. At 15.5% during 2024, export growth has made a major contribution to the rise in industrial output (Table 1). Imports, though, increased even faster, resulting in a negative contribution to GDP growth from trade.

Headline consumer price inflation picked up temporarily in 2024, but monetary policy was right to see through these inflationary pressures from volatile items. Rising inflation in mid-2024 was driven in part by food prices, healthcare services, housing costs and a depreciating exchange rate during the first half of the year and later by higher production costs after Typhoon Yagi. These effects have dissipated, and inflation fell below 3% in the final quarter of 2024. Core inflation, which had peaked at more than 5% in 2023, remained below 3% throughout 2024, and stood at 3.1% in April 2025.

GDP is projected to increase by 6.2 percent in 2025 and 6.0% in 2026, led by domestic demand while export demand will weaken. Private consumption will be supported by continued increases in real wages and employment. Higher tariffs on exports to the United States, affecting around one third of Viet Nam’s exports, will dent export prospects going forward, although the wider ramifications of these developments, including for investment inflows, remain highly uncertain.

Accommodative monetary policy and improvements in bank balance sheets will help consumption and investment to grow steadily in 2025 and 2026. Inflation is projected to increase to 3.7% in 2025, still slightly below the target of 4.5-5%, driven by strong domestic demand, while the unemployment rate remains low.

Fiscal policy will continue to support growth through increased public investment, as the government tries to offset past undershooting of investment plans. Given strong growth, the need for fiscal stimulus could be reconsidered, although recent tariff hikes are projected to weigh on growth outcomes, with substantial downside risks around these projections. Fiscal policy should therefore remain flexible and stand ready to support growth if needed. Emerging spending needs in social protection and the green transition will call for reforming the tax system to mobilise additional revenues, including from value-added taxes, while improving budgetary governance and the transparency of fiscal accounts.

As a trade-dependent economy, Viet Nam remains highly exposed to developments in global trade. In light of higher tariffs, net exports will subtract from growth in 2025 and 2026, but their overall effect on trade and growth could be much larger, especially if higher trade barriers lead to a sharp decline in foreign investment inflows. Renewed downward pressure on the exchange rate could pass through into higher inflation, requiring a tighter monetary policy stance.

Risks in the financial sector are related to corporate debt and a high share of non-performing loans. These have risen to their highest level in a decade, due in part to real estate turbulence and the failure of the fifth-largest commercial bank during 2022. Strengthening debt enforcement and insolvency rules could help to reduce non-performing loans.

Viet Nam could enhance its resilience by revising its monetary policy framework. Strengthening the operational independence of the central bank and moving towards a more price-based approach to monetary policy would improve the effectiveness and transparency of monetary policy. This requires phasing out bank-specific credit growth targets to enhance competition and the efficient allocation of capital through the large banking system to contain financial stability risks. Enhancing exchange rate flexibility would cushion the impact of external shocks. Publishing national accounts and fiscal data in line with up-to-date internationally recognised methodologies would strengthen policy transparency.

Viet Nam’s rapid economic expansion has delivered large benefits to a large share of the population. A middle class is emerging, income inequality has declined, and extreme poverty has been almost eradicated. Although informality has been contained, two thirds of workers still work in informal jobs and lack access to social protection benefits. Recent reforms to enhance access to pensions and health care will help these workers and should be implemented. Lowering the tax burden on labour income would foster formalisation and mitigate the pervasive effects of informality.

Viet Nam's sustained economic growth and social protection policies have nearly eradicated extreme poverty. Progress spans income, employment, nutrition, healthcare, and education. Plans to achieve universal pension coverage by rolling out non-contributory basic pensions are underway, and healthcare coverage is almost universal.

Income inequality has been contained. As measured by the Gini coefficient, inequality is lower than in Malaysia and the Philippines, and similar to that of Indonesia, Lao PDR, and Thailand. The recent decline in income inequality was in large part due to tax and transfer measures introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic and the global surge in energy prices. Some of these measures are temporary and should therefore be supplemented by longer- lasting policy reforms. For lower-income households, targeted cash transfers would help to improve access to secondary education and reduce the burden of out-of-pocket health expenses and higher energy prices. At the top of the income distribution, eliminating some of the numerous income tax expenditures would make the tax system more progressive.

Reducing informality through a combination of financial incentives and stricter enforcement will make growth more inclusive. Informality is pervasive among young people and older workers, but prime-age persons are also affected. Those with informal employment receive lower incomes, work longer hours, are not eligible for unemployment insurance, and do not accumulate pension rights. The recent reform of the pension system, as part of the amended Law on Social Insurance, will create a non-contributory basic pension for all workers. This is welcome to broaden pension coverage as currently few workers are eligible for pensions upon retirement due to widespread labour informality. But these reforms should be implemented with a view towards policy coherence across the whole social protection system to avoid weakening formalisation incentives. The combination of social security contributions (Figure 2), income taxes and minimum wages can make formal job creation prohibitively costly for low-skilled workers with low productivity and contribute to high informality. Reducing social security contributions for low-income-earners while expanding other sources of government revenue would encourage formalisation.

Women participate actively in the labour market but hold few senior positions. Women participate less in leadership positions in the business sector, government departments, and political institutions. Increasing early childhood leave entitlements, with a minimum earmarked to fathers, would help to distribute the burden of childcare more evenly across men and women. Viet Nam could also consider gradually phasing in mandatory quotas for female directors on executive boards, as done successfully in other countries.

Viet Nam is highly exposed to the effects of climate change. People living in the large urban areas of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are already exposed to risks of flooding, heat waves, and extreme weather events. The government has introduced ambitious climate mitigation policies, including incentives for solar and wind power, and has adopted a net zero carbon emission target by 2050. However, fast-increasing energy demand means that the consumption of coal is still reaching record-high levels.

Enhancing preparedness against climate hazards will be essential, including by implementing early warning systems, constructing storm-resistant infrastructure, conducting information campaigns, and investing in public resources such as temporary shelters and evacuation routes. Facilitating the resettlement of internal migrants from precarious urban neighbourhoods would also provide protection during typhoons. Additionally, significant health risks result from high levels of local air pollution due to fine particulate matter. Low-emission zones in cities, low-carbon public transport options and a more rapid adoption of electric vehicles can help contain these risks.

The government is committed to ambitious mitigation efforts. Vietnam aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and is implementing a policy framework to support this transition. Significant investments have been made to expand renewable electricity generation, positioning Viet Nam among the world's fastest adopters of clean energy. Although the government has not introduced a carbon tax, various fossil fuels are subject to excise taxes that increase their prices. The Environmental Protection Tax and VAT on energy products were reduced following global energy price shocks and could now be returned to previous levels to send adequate price signals. The establishment of an Emission Trading System, which will operate alongside a voluntary carbon credit market, should be accelerated. Carbon pricing could be combined with non-pricing measures such as regulation and public investment.

Strong electricity demand drives up carbon emissions. In the first 10 months of 2024, record-high electricity demand increased emissions from coal-fired power plants (Figure 3). To reverse this trend, Viet Nam will need to expand renewable energy sources further and strengthen the grid. Decommissioning coal plants will have collateral effects on local communities in mining areas, but a fair transition can be achieved through reskilling and relocation assistance.

Achieving Viet Nam’s objective of reaching high-income status by 2045 requires faster productivity gains to support economic growth as demographic trends become less favourable. A key priority is to maintain and leverage inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) to boost productivity through better connections with local firms. This will become increasingly challenging in light of new trade barriers for exports to the United States.

Viet Nam’s increasing share of world trade has been driven by FDI inflows. Between 2015 and 2023, these amounted to 4.8% of GDP, exceeding other ASEAN countries, China and India. FDI inflows have brought significant benefits to Viet Nam’s economy including capital, technology and market access, which will be important to sustain in a changing global economy. Viet Nam’s share of world trade climbed from 0.1% in 1996 to 1.5% in 2023, making it the world’s 19th largest exporter (Figure 4). New tariffs imposed by the US are likely to weaken this strong performance in the future.

Opening up services markets to competition and foreign direct investment will be key for moving into higher-value ladders of global value chains. More competitive service inputs can have significant productivity benefits for downstream manufacturing companies, but barriers to competition and foreign investment remain high in most service sectors.

FDI has been less successful in developing linkages with the domestic economy. Supplier development programmes, a better exchange of information between potential local suppliers and foreign affiliates and stronger protection of intellectual property rights may allow more local firms to benefit from productivity spillovers from FDI.

Upgrading education and training to increase the supply of high-skilled workers can help to strengthen connections between FDI firms and domestic companies. Only around half of young people are enrolled in upper secondary education. Tertiary enrollments remain one of the lowest in the region and high tuition fees hinder access to higher education for many students, which may require increased public financial support.

Improving the allocation of resources will require stronger competition across the economy. This includes financial services, which are key for the allocation of capital and present scope for expanding market-based financing, including for SMEs. Reducing the weight of state-owned enterprises and levelling the playing field with private firms could allow more labour and capital to move to more productive firms. Anti-corruption efforts have led to progress and should be maintained.