OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 2

United Kingdom

The economy is recovering and expected to reach pre-crisis levels at the beginning of 2022. Output is projected to rise by 6.9% in 2021, with growth moderating to 4.7% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023. Consumption is the main driver of growth during the projection period. Business investment will improve but continues to be held back by uncertainty. Increased border costs following the exit from the EU Single Market are weighing on imports and exports. Unemployment will continue to decline. Inflation will keep increasing due to higher energy and commodity prices and continuing supply shortages. It is expected to peak at 4.9% in the first half of 2022 and then fall back towards the 2% target by the end of 2023.

Monetary policy should tighten gradually to bring inflation back to target over the medium term, as price pressures show signs of becoming persistent. Fiscal policy should continue to support the economy and become more targeted to aid economic restructuring. Boosting training and career counselling programmes can facilitate economic reallocation and ease job transitions. Government programmes should focus on providing certainty on long-term issues such as the transition to net zero in order to support investment. The effects from phasing out fiscal support measures on businesses and households should be closely monitored, in the context of planned tax increases, to avoid derailing the recovery.

Vaccination progress is supporting the recovery

A fast initial roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines has weakened the link between new COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths, allowing a broad reopening of the economy. In England, practically all COVID‑19-related restrictions were lifted on 19 July, allowing nightclubs to reopen and easing restrictions on large events and performances. Hygiene and distancing advice remains in place. Devolved administrations in Scotland and Wales progressively lifted COVID-19-related restrictions over the summer, whereas some restrictions on group sizes remain in Northern Ireland. To prepare for a potential third wave over the winter and on the back of a sharp increase of confirmed cases in October, booster jabs are being offered to eligible people and vaccination offers are expanded to include healthy 12‑15 year olds.

United Kingdom: Economic activity and labour market indicators

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 110 database; and ONS labour market statistics.

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United Kingdom: Demand, output and prices

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United Kingdom: Inflation and fiscal indicators

1. Harmonised Consumer Price Index excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco.

2. General government net financial liabilities.

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 110 database.

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Output rose strongly in the first half of 2021 as the economy gradually reopened, but high frequency data indicate a slowing of the economy due to supply and labour shortages. GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in the third quarter of 2021. Hospitality services and events benefited particularly from the lifting of COVID‑19 restrictions in England. Production output, in particular from mining and quarrying, grew in the third quarter, whereas the construction sector contracted. The labour market has rebounded strongly, with vacancies reaching a record high level of almost 1.2 million in September. Employment is on the rise, while unemployment has been decreasing since January. Labour shortages are emerging in sectors particularly affected by the pandemic and in which EU-born migrants were also over-represented, such as accommodation and food services, wholesale and retail trade and transport and logistics. Average regular pay excluding bonuses increased by 6% between June and August 2021, but according to the Bank of England underlying wage growth is estimated to be more modest. A surge in energy prices, in combination with supply and labour shortages that are exacerbated by increased trade and immigration restrictions following the exit from the EU Single Market, have pushed inflation well above the 2% target, to 4.2% in October. Inflation expectations in October for the year ahead also edged up reaching to 4.4%.

Support measures have ended following the lifting of containment restrictions

The main fiscal support measures have been phased out and spending on support measures will largely disappear in 2022. The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), the Self Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) and the GBP 20 a week increase to the Universal Credit ended in September, along with a number of other crisis supports. Other measures, such as reduced VAT rates on hospitality and recreational services, are being tapered away. Some degree of fiscal tightening is expected as the government plans tax increases in 2022, when income tax brackets will be frozen and national insurance contributions increased, and in 2023, when an increase in corporate income tax is planned. Spending will be focused on infrastructure improvements and projects supporting the transition to a carbon net zero economy.

Monetary policy remains supportive. The Bank of England has maintained its Bank Rate at 0.1% and increased its bond purchasing programme over the course of the crisis to reach a total of GBP 895 billion (about 44% of GDP in 2020). As inflationary pressures are mounting on the back of supply and labour shortages, and rising fuel and energy prices, the Bank is projected to tighten policy over the near term, gradually increasing the policy rate from 0.1% to 0.5% to maintain the inflation target over the medium term. When the policy rate reaches 0.5%, the Bank of England intends to stop reinvesting the proceeds of maturing assets, if appropriate given the economic circumstances, and it will only consider selling assets once the policy rate rises to at least 1%.

The recovery is set to continue

Output is projected to grow by 6.9% in 2021 before growth slows to 4.7% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023. Consumption will continue to support growth but is expected to slow as government support is wound down and households feel the income effects of rising prices. Households in lower income brackets, who saved less during the crisis, are set to be particularly affected by the winding-down of COVID‑19 support. In contrast, wealthier households will normalise their savings, which increased sharply in 2020. Business investment in 2022 will be supported by an increased deduction for some types of investments available until April 2023. Unemployment will gradually decline to 4.2% in 2023 as the labour market continues to tighten. Labour shortages add to wage pressures, but are not expected to persistently push up inflation. Annual consumer price inflaiton is set to peak at 4.9% in the second quarter of 2022 on the back of rising energy prices as well as upward pressures from trade disruptions and imported inflation. Public investment will rise over the course of 2022 and 2023 reflecting planned spending increases on infrastructure and climate. The general government deficit is projected to decline gradually to 5.4% of GDP in 2022 and 4% of GDP in 2023.

The projection is surrounded by risks. Lingering public health concerns and higher-than-expected goods and energy prices could weigh on consumption. A prolonged period of acute supply and labour shortages could slow down the recovery by forcing firms into a more permanent reduction in their operating capacity. Higher inflation expectations could lead to an earlier-than-expected increase of the policy rate. A worsening trade relationship with the European Union could also weigh on the economic outlook in the medium term. Upside risks include a faster-than-expected relocation of workers from the ended furlough scheme into available job vacancies.

Addressing long-term challenges to sustain the recovery

Monetary policy should tighten amidst clear signs of persistent price pressures. Fiscal policy should remain supportive. Boosting investment in skills, retraining and career counselling programmes is a welcome step as it can support the restructuring of the economy. Reducing out‑of‑pocket costs of childcare further would help parents, notably mothers, to increase hours in paid employment and training. The government can also stimulate the recovery by being clear about its approach to the transition to a net zero economy, and policy decisions can provide the needed certainty for businesses to increase investment. In addition, public investment should focus on improving residential heating and on necessary infrastructure to reach the UK’s ambitious carbon emission objectives, such as infrastructure to electrify new economic sectors and to make the electricity system more suitable for much higher volumes and variability of renewable energy.