OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 2

Germany

The economy is projected to grow by 2.9% in 2021, 4.1% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023. The recovery is being hampered by shortages of key manufacturing inputs, although a large stock of unfilled orders signals a strong potential rebound as supply constraints ease. Private consumption will accelerate in 2022 as confidence improves. Solid investment will be underpinned by low interest rates and increasing capacity pressures. Inflation is likely to ease in 2022, but remain elevated. The rise in COVID‑19 cases and persistent supply shortages in critical industries could slow the recovery.

Fiscal policy will gradually become less supportive, even though public investment is set to grow and could play a bigger role if delivery constraints can be overcome. Boosting infrastructure investment and improving planning capacity would accelerate the energy transition and digitalisation. Enhancing active labour market policies, in particular training, would ease transitions to jobs in high demand.

The recovery is being hampered by lingering supply constraints

The pandemic continues to weigh on economic activity, with a surge in cases since mid-October, especially in places where vaccination progress is lagging. As of mid-November, approximately 67% of the population is fully vaccinated, but the rate of vaccination has decelerated and Germany lags many of its European peers. In the third quarter of 2021, GDP was up by 1.7% on the previous quarter, due to higher household consumption. Supply constraints are causing output to lag considerably behind strong demand. While export orders in manufacturing reached record high levels – benefiting from strong global demand – industrial production fell, due to a lack of raw materials and intermediate products. A shortage of semiconductors is weighing on car production in particular. Consequently, the IFO business climate index has fallen for five consecutive months, with companies less satisfied with their current business, more sceptical about the coming months and on average expecting resolution of supply constraints only in the third quarter of 2022. Still, in the services sectors, expectations improved.

Germany: Vaccination and confidence indicators

1. OECD members only.

Source: OECD calculations based on Our World in Data; and Refinitiv.

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Germany: Demand, output and prices

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Germany: Economic activity and inflation indicators

1. Harmonised index of consumer prices.

2. Average nominal wage per employee.

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 110 database.

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Employment growth has been strong since June, with an increase of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2021. At the same time, the vacancy rate returned to the high pre-crisis level, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% in September. Consumer prices increased by 4.5% in the twelve months to October, boosted by a number of factors including energy price increases (with heating oil and fuels up by 44%), the pass-through of producer price increases due to supply constraints, and the end of the temporary VAT cut in the second half of 2020. One-year inflation expectations of individuals have increased to 4.2% on average in October. Key unions have responded to higher prices with increased wage demands, but recent pay deals in construction, retail and wholesale trade have seen wage increases contained at an average of about 2½ per cent over the next two years.

Fiscal policy is gradually normalising

Fiscal policy has supported the economy in 2021 through payments to firms affected by containment measures, bonus payments for families, expanded short-time work and increased public investment. As in 2020, government expenditure is set to considerably undershoot budget plans, with a federal deficit of EUR 133 billion from January to September 2021 compared with approved annual borrowing of EUR 240 billion (6.9% of GDP). The main COVID-19 fiscal support measures, including the expanded short-time work scheme, will terminate by the end of 2021 while the focus of economic policy shifts to shaping the recovery. A re-imposition of the debt brake is expected to happen in 2023. The underlying primary deficit is projected to decline by 1.4% of GDP between 2021 and 2023. Highly accommodative monetary policy by the European Central Bank continues to support aggregate demand.

Next Generation EU grants will be used to tackle climate change, enhance digitalisation, strengthen healthcare and reduce barriers to investment. About half of the grants are set to be spent by 2023. A EUR 25/tonne CO₂ price in transport and building heating was introduced at the beginning of 2021, contributing about 0.3 percentage points to inflation in 2021, with further gradual price increases to follow in 2022 and 2023.

A strong recovery is on its way

Private consumption is projected to slow in the short term due to the increase in COVID-19 cases, but will be supported in 2022 by pent-up demand, a strong labour market and gradual normalisation of activity in the services sector. Exports will increase at the same pace as external demand as supply constraints ease gradually. Business investment will edge up, supported by favourable financing conditions and increasing capacity usage, but is being held back in the short term by the effect of global supply constraints on the manufacture of capital goods. Inflation is likely to ease in 2022 as the base effect from the 2020 VAT cut ends, though the slow pass-through of gas price increases to consumers will keep inflation elevated. Nominal wage growth will accelerate in response to higher price levels and the expected rise in the minimum wage. After rising by 14 percentage points during the crisis, public debt as a share of GDP will decline from 2022 due to lower deficits and higher nominal GDP growth.

The rise in COVID-19 cases could slow private consumption considerably, especially if stringent restrictions are imposed. Widespread demands for higher wages and more severe shortages in the labour market (while labour supply is limited due to a drop in immigration) risk starting an inflationary spiral. In addition, a wave of insolvencies may occur after government credit-support programs expire. On the other hand, if supply constraints ease sooner, exports could expand more rapidly to meet strong demand.

Boosting infrastructure investment and supporting employment transitions

Boosting infrastructure investment would help to accelerate the energy transition and digitalisation while supporting private investment. This requires streamlining infrastructure planning processes, improving public procurement through better data collection, raising financial support for good municipal investment projects, and focusing on cost-benefit analysis through an independent infrastructure advisory body. The extension of the short-time work scheme during the crisis greatly alleviated employment losses. Nonetheless, some workers lost their jobs, particularly low-income workers who often work in jobs that do not qualify for the scheme. The end of the short-time work scheme will incentivise the necessary reallocation of labour and capital but risks leaving more households vulnerable. Enhancing active labour market policies, in particular training, could ease the transition to higher-paying jobs. A green transition is key to the recovery programme, yet Germany still has many opportunities to improve the cost‑effectiveness of its climate mitigation measures. Examples include making emissions pricing more uniform as well as supporting use of renewable electricity in transport and buildings by reducing electricity taxes and expanding green infrastructure.