This chapter presents the main data and statistics related to the urbanisation process in Morocco. The chapter first examines the evolution of the urban population in Morocco, putting it into perspective with that of other OECD countries according to the harmonised statistical definition of functional urban areas. Based on these data and international comparisons, the chapter then analyses the main challenges, assets, and opportunities of Moroccan cities in terms of development.
National Urban Policy Review of Morocco
Abstract
Morocco has experienced rapid urbanisation in recent decades, with the urban population increasing from 38.0% of the total population in 1975 to 65.2% in 2024. Projections indicate that Morocco's urban population will continue to grow, reaching 67.8% of the total population by 2030. Urbanisation in Morocco has been characterised by the development of large urban areas along the Atlantic coast, accompanied by numerous small and medium-sized cities inland.
Urbanisation is a key driver of development and economic growth in Morocco. Moroccan cities account for 80% of productive activity (industry and services) and 75% of employment. However, the economic development of cities is hindered by several challenges, notably the lack of transport infrastructure, which limits the potential benefits of urban agglomeration economies inherent to cities. Moreover, access to employment in cities remains highly unequal, with women and young people facing the greatest difficulties in entering the labour market and being disproportionately affected by unemployment.
Despite significant progress in human development over recent decades and a marked improvement in housing conditions due to proactive policies such as the Cities Without Slums (Villes sans Bidonvilles) programme and social housing initiatives, due to rapid urban growth, Moroccan cities now face critical challenges in housing and transport whose supply is struggling to keep pace with demand. Housing needs remain substantial, and although the quality of urban housing has significantly improved in recent decades, data from the latest census show that a significant portion of the urban housing stock remains precarious. Mobility is another major issue for Moroccan cities, particularly in supporting urban competitiveness and attractiveness. Public transport networks remain underdeveloped in cities, with a significant share of intra-urban transport relying on motorised vehicles, such as taxis, private cars, and motorcycles.
Moroccan cities are also significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, which have risen continuously in the largest urban areas since 1970. The energy and waste sectors account for the bulk of this increase. Cities are also facing growing climate risks, including significant water stress, as well as geological risks such as earthquakes. These challenges are exacerbated by various vulnerability factors, including the persistence of substandard housing and the intensified urbanisation along coastal areas.
The urban population, already dominant, is expected to grow further both in size and proportion
Morocco is a predominantly urban country. According to the 2014 General Population and Housing Census (Recensement Général de la Population et de l’Habitat – RGPH) – the latest official source available, with a new census scheduled for September 2024 – the urban population of Morocco stood at 20.3 million in 2014, representing 60.3% of the total population (see Box 2.1 for more details on the definition of urban areas in Morocco). The urbanisation rate has doubled since 1960. The rapid urban growth observed since the 1960s is attributed to high birth rates in urban areas, although these have been declining since the 1990s, and significant rural-to-urban migration.
Note: General Population and Housing Census (Recensement Général de la Population et de l’Habitat) 2004 and 2014. The data for 2024 and 2030 are based on urban population projections from the Centre for Demographic Studies and Research (CERED) of the High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan - HCP).
Source : CERED/HCP, Population Census (RGPH) 2014 (2014[1]), https://www.hcp.ma/Recensement-population-RGPH-2014_a2941.html.
This predominance of Morocco’s urban population is also confirmed by OECD estimates based on the degree of urbanisation (Box 2.2) – a methodology designed to enable international comparisons. According to this indicator, the OECD estimates that in 2015, approximately 50.7% of Morocco’s population lived in cities with more than 50 000 inhabitants, 22.0% in towns and semi-dense areas, and the remaining 27.3% in rural areas (Figure 2.1). Compared to OECD countries with similar income levels (upper-middle-income countries, as classified by the World Bank), Morocco exhibits a level of urbanisation comparable to Costa Rica (45%), but lower than Türkiye and Colombia’s levels (59% and 64%, respectively).
Note: Estimates for the year 2015.
Source: OECD calculations, based on the global GHS-POP grids for the year 2015 (2019[2]).
Urban areas according to the 2014 General Population and Housing Census (Recensement Général de la Population et de l’Habitat - RGPH)
In Morocco, the distinction between urban and rural areas is based on the classification of localities carried out during the General Population and Housing Census (Recensement Général de la Population et de l’Habitat – RGPH), which divides the country into 1 538 communes, of which 256 are urban and 1 282 are rural. In 2014, the urban classification consisted of:
Urban communes, which are agglomeration with the administrative status of a “city”1;
Urban centres, which include rural communes considered urban for statistical purposes since the 2004 census;
Rural localities reclassified as urban localities according to the approach adopted for the 2014 RGPH (detailed below);
New cities created in rural territories, such as Tamansourt and Tamesna.
The reclassification of candidate rural localities into urban localities followed a three-step process for rural agglomerations with around 300 households and grouped housing units spaced no more than 200 metres apart:
1. Agglomerations filled out a preliminary questionnaire to assess the presence of paved roads, drinking water, electricity, and basic public facilities (e.g., post office, gas station, pharmacy).
2. Selected agglomerations after the first step completed a main questionnaire evaluating the presence of approximately 40 facilities and services. Urbanisation indices were calculated and compared against regional acceptation thresholds set by the High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan - HCP). Localities meeting regional selection criteria with at least 400 households (2 500 inhabitants) were retained.
3. Results were reviewed by the Regional Directorate of the HCP. In cases of disagreement, a field visit was conducted to determine the final classification of the locality.
However, Organic Law 113-14 on communes, enacted in 2016 after the 2014 RGPH, removed the distinction between urban and rural communes. Article 2 states: “The commune is one of the levels of territorial organisation in the country, and it constitutes a public territorial entity with legal personality and administrative and financial autonomy.”
Territorial organisation of Morocco
Morocco’s territorial organisation is structured into three levels:
First level: Regions, comprising various prefectures and provinces (Decree No. 2.15.10 of 20 February 2015). Regions are responsible for promoting integrated and sustainable development and play a leading role in Regional Development Programmes (PDR) and Regional Spatial Development Plans (SRAT).
Intermediate level: Prefectures and provinces. These entities focus on promoting social development, especially in rural areas but also within urban spaces. They also aim to enhance efficiency, resource sharing, and cooperation among communes within their jurisdiction.
Lower level: Communes, tasked with delivering local services to citizens.
Under the OECD territorial grid system (OECD, 2022[3]), regions correspond to Territorial Level 2 (TL2), while prefectures and provinces correspond to Territorial Level 3 (TL3).
Source: Responses to the OECD questionnaire provided by the High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan - HCP) and the Directorate of Legal Affairs; (OECD/UCLG, 2016[4]) Subnational Governments Around the World: Structure and Finance, https://www.uclg.org/sites/default/files/global_observatory_on_local_finance_0.pdf ; (Portail National des Collectivités Territoriales, s.d.[5]), 2015: Towards advanced regionalisation, https://www.collectivites-territoriales.gov.ma/fr/2015-vers-une-regionalisation-avancee ; (Haut-Commissariat au Plan, s.d.[6]) Geographical Distribution of the Population Based on the 2014 General Population and Housing Census Data, https://www.hcp.ma/Repartition-geographique-de-la-population-d-apres-les-donnees-du-Recensement-General-de-la-Population-et-de-l-Habitat-de_a1796.html
According to the degree of urbanisation used by the OECD (Box 2.2), Morocco's population has also become increasingly urban. Between 1975 and 2015, the share of Morocco’s population living in cities increased by 12.7 percentage points (pp), from 38.0% to 50.7% (Figure 2.2), a growth rate similar to that of Norway (11.2pp) and New Zealand (14.2pp). During the same period, the share of Morocco’s population living in towns and semi-dense areas slightly decreased (-3pp), but this decline was less pronounced than in other countries such as Chile (-7.8pp), Colombia (-12.9pp), and Türkiye (-13.1pp).
Source: OECD calculations based on global GHS-POP grids for the year 2015 (2019[2]).
The degree of urbanisation (DEGURBA), jointly developed by the OECD and the European Commission, is a method that classifies areas in a simple and neutral manner and can be applied to all countries worldwide. The classification is based on population size and density criteria applied to 1 km² population grids. DEGURBA distinguishes three types of areas:
Cities: Contiguous areas with a density of more than 1 500 inhabitants per km² or with at least 50% built-up area, and with a population of at least 50 000 inhabitants.
Towns and semi-dense areas: Contiguous areas with a density of at least 300 inhabitants per km² or at least 3% built-up area, and with a population of at least 5 000 inhabitants.
Rural areas: Contiguous areas that do not fall into the two categories above. Most of these areas have a density below 300 inhabitants per km².
These figures are based on the global population grids GHS-POP R2019A published by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.
Source: (OECD et al., 2021[7]) Applying the Degree of Urbanisation: A Methodological Manual to Define Cities, Towns and Rural Areas for International Comparisons ; https://doi.org/10.1787/4bc1c502-en ; (Florczyk et al., 2019[2]) GHSL data package 2019 : public release GHS P2019, https://doi.org/10.2760/290498.
The High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan – HCP) projects that Morocco’s urban population will continue to grow in the coming years, rising from 20.4 million in 2014 to 23.6 million in 2022, 26.7 million in 2030, and 32.1 million in 2050 – an increase of approximately 1.6 times between 2014 and 2050 (a 13% rise from 2022 to 2030 and a 20% rise from 2030 to 2050). Meanwhile, projections indicate that the rural population will decline, decreasing from 13.4 million in 2014 to 11.5 million by 2050. The urban population is expected to increase significantly from 20.4 million in 2014 to 32.1 million in 2050, raising the share of urban residents in Morocco’s total population from 60.3% in 2014 to 73.6% in 2050 (Figure 2.3).
Source: High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan), Statistics database, (s.d.[8]) https://bds.hcp.ma/sectors.
This growth in the urban population will, however, be accompanied by a significant slowdown in the natural growth rate – the difference between the birth and death rates – which is projected to decline from 11% to 3% between 2022 and 2049. Despite this slowdown, the urban population will continue to grow significantly across the country, particularly in the capital region. According to projections by the High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan) (as reported in the OECD questionnaire), the Casablanca-Settat region, home to about a quarter of Morocco’s urban population, is expected to see its urban population increase by approximately 18% between 2020 and 2030, rising from 5.6 million to 6 million urban residents. Urban population growth will be particularly pronounced in the Souss-Massa and Oriental regions, with increases of 29% and 24%, respectively, from 1.75 million and 1.78 million in 2020 to 2.1 million and 2.3 million in 2030.
A country characterised by numerous small cities and coastal cities, but with urban populations concentrated in large agglomerations
Population growth over recent decades in Morocco, combined with the distribution of residents across cities, has significantly shaped the country’s urban framework. While the number of cities with populations between 500 000 and 1 million remained relatively stable between 2004 and 2014, the number of cities with populations ranging from 20 000 to 100 000 and 100 000 to 500 000 experienced significant growth. Conversely, the number of urban centres with fewer than 20 000 residents slightly decreased, from 237 in 2004 to 232 in 2014. However, the population share of urban centres with fewer than 100 000 residents declined during this period, from 33.2% of the urban population in 2004 to 31.8% in 2014. Meanwhile, the demographic weight of cities with more than 100 000 residents increased. By 2014, more than two-thirds (68.2%) of the urban population was concentrated in cities with over 100 000 residents (Table 2.2). Over the past few decades, the population of Morocco’s largest cities, such as Casablanca and Tangier, has grown rapidly. Conversely, the population of Rabat significantly declined between the last two censuses, dropping from approximately 625 000 residents to fewer than 580 000 (Table 2.3).
Source: CERED/HCP, Population Census (RGPH) 2014, (2014[1]) https://www.hcp.ma/Recensement-population-RGPH-2014_a2941.html.
Source: CERED/HCP, Population census (RGPH) 2014, (2014[1]) https://www.hcp.ma/Recensement-population-RGPH-2014_a2941.html.
To facilitate international comparisons of cities, the OECD and the European Commission developed the concept of Functional Urban Areas (FUA). This definition considers the economic and functional characteristics of cities, often leading to the definition of urban areas that extend beyond the purely administrative boundaries of cities. An adaptation of this method in the case of Morocco (Box 2.3 and Annex Table 2.A.1) identified 58 functional urban areas, a number similar to Japan (61), Poland (58), and Colombia (53) (Figure 2.4). Among these 58 functional urban areas, 17 are considered new urban areas, meaning they surpassed the threshold of 50 000 inhabitants between 1990 and 2015.
Delimitation of functional urban areas in Morocco
Definition according to the OECD/EU methodology
The definition of Functional Urban Areas (FUAs), approved by the United Nations Statistical Commission in 2020, was developed by the OECD and the European Union to facilitate the international comparability of cities (Dijkstra, Poelman et Veneri, 2019[9]).
This definition considers the economic and functional characteristics of cities. Population density and commuting flows are used to identify a densely populated urban core (hereafter referred to as a city) and a surrounding area (hereafter referred to as the commuting zone), which is less densely populated but whose labour market is highly integrated with the urban core (more than 15% of its workforce commutes to the city).
Estimation of functional urban areas in Morocco
In the absence of data on commuting flows or other usable mobility data2, the OECD proposes an approximation of FUA boundaries using a global travel time grid (Weiss et al., 2018[10]) combined with a population grid (Moreno-Monroy, Schiavina et Veneri, 2021[11]).
This method helps delineate a grid-based FUA, which can then be adjusted to the administrative boundaries of local units to facilitate the development of statistical indicators at the FUA level. In Morocco, the selected local units are communes. Communes are allocated to functional urban areas based on their population distribution.
Classification of cities and agglomerations
To facilitate comparisons across countries, the OECD classifies FUAs based on population thresholds, which may differ from national classification thresholds. In the case of Morocco, the two classifications are compared in the table below:
Note: Details of the methodology and key figures on the identified Functional Urban Areas can be found in Annex 1.A.
Source: Responses to the OECD questionnaire provided by the Fes Urban Agency, the High Commission for Planning (Haut Commissaire au Plan - HCP), and the Moroccan Directorate of Legal Affairs.
Note: The chart includes the 36 OECD countries that have applied the OECD/EU methodology for delineating functional urban areas. This list does not include Israel and Costa Rica, as FUA delineation is not currently available for these countries.
Source: OECD calculations based on global GHS-POP (2019[2]) grids for the year 2015.
In terms of size, small functional urban areas dominate in Morocco. More than three-quarters of Morocco's 58 FUAs (45 FUAs) have fewer than 250 000 inhabitants. This strong predominance of small urban areas (between 50 000 and 250 000 inhabitants) is not observed in most OECD countries (Figure 2.5), including upper-middle-income countries comparable to Morocco (Figure 2.6). For instance, in Mexico and Türkiye, medium-sized metropolitan areas (between 250 000 and 1 million inhabitants) are more prevalent. Among other OECD countries, the distribution of Moroccan cities by size is more similar to the one of Spain, Poland, or Colombia. No Moroccan urban area yet exceeds the 5 million inhabitants threshold, but Casablanca is approaching this figure, with an estimated population of 4.4 million in 2015.
Note: The chart includes 34 OECD countries that have applied the OECD/EU methodology for delineating functional urban areas. Iceland and Korea, where small urban areas account for 100% and 0% of the total FUAs respectively, are excluded from the analysis.
Source: OECD calculations based on global GHS-POP (2019[2]) grids for the year 2015.
Note: In the chart, countries are grouped according to the World Bank's income classification. Within each panel, countries are ranked in ascending order based on the number of urban areas with fewer than 250 000 inhabitants. OECD countries where FUA delineation is still in progress (e.g., Costa Rica) are excluded from the analysis.
Source: OECD calculations based on global GHS-POP (2019[2]) grids for the year 2015.
Morocco's geography has significantly influenced the country's urbanisation process, which is now characterised by a system of large urban areas organised along the Atlantic coast, complemented by a network of small, medium, and large cities in the interior (Figure 2.7) (see the classification of cities based on the National Urban Structure Plan in Box 2.3). Four of Morocco’s six metropolitan areas with over one million inhabitants (according to the 2014 RGPH census) are located along the coast (Casablanca, Rabat, Agadir, and Tangier). Among these, the port cities of Tangier and Agadir experienced the highest demographic growth since 2000, with increases of 56% and 39%, respectively. Although more modest, population growth in other metropolitan areas (i.e., FUAs with more than 250 000 inhabitants) has also been significant, with growth rates exceeding 10%. For smaller urban areas, demographic growth has been driven by the dynamism of larger coastal cities. Aïn El Aouda and Deroua, located near Rabat and Casablanca respectively, recorded the highest demographic growth rates among Morocco’s urban areas between 2000 and 2015, exceeding 60% (Figure 2.8). During the same period, only five of Morocco’s 58 functional urban areas experienced population declines: Taza (-8.6%), Tiznit (-8.6%), Ouezzane (-3.5%), Essaouira (-1.6%), and Sidi Bennour (-1.3%).
Note: The light blue and medium blue bars represent the size of Functional Urban Areas with more than 250 000 inhabitants. The final bar, in dark blue, indicates the average population of the 45 FUAs with fewer than 250,000 inhabitants.
Source: OECD calculations based on global GHS-POP (2019[2]) grids for the year 2015.
Note: The horizontal axis uses a logarithmic scale.
Source: OECD calculations based on global GHS-POP (2019[2]) grids for the year 2015.
Urban sprawl as a risk to inclusive and sustainable development, particularly in Casablanca and Rabat
In most OECD countries, cities have expanded significantly since 1990, with very low-density areas now occupying a larger share of land (OECD, 2018[12]). This pattern of urbanisation poses challenges for the sustainable and inclusive economic development of cities. On one hand, urban sprawl into low-density areas increases the per capita cost of infrastructure provision compared to denser zones (e.g., paved roads, water treatment, schools). Urban sprawl can also lead to spatial segregation of low-income households by driving up housing prices in central areas, subsequently limiting access to labour markets in city centres. From an environmental perspective, urban sprawl impacts greenhouse gas emissions, air and water quality, the availability of peri-urban arable land, biodiversity, and urban heat islands (OECD, 2018[12]). Sprawl beyond city administrative boundaries also creates governance challenges, particularly in managing public services.
Since 1975, the rapid population growth in Moroccan cities has been accompanied by an even greater expansion of their built-up areas (Figure 2.9), offering a preliminary indication of the extent of urban sprawl in Morocco. Over the past 40 years, built-up areas in Moroccan cities increased on average by 174%, compared to a 157% increase in the urban population – a much smaller gap (17pp) than the average observed in OECD countries (68pp). However, since 1990, this gap has widened in towns and semi-dense areas in Morocco, suggesting urban sprawl is still relatively limited but increasingly evident. Urban sprawl in Morocco takes several forms, including new city projects, large-scale social housing developments, sprawling residential areas for higher-income households along existing roads (e.g., residential complexes in El Menzeh near Rabat and in Bouskoura near Greater Casablanca), and informal constructions expanding from existing rural settlement cores on city outskirts (see Chapter 4 for more details on urban sprawl in Morocco).
Note: Normalised indices, base 100 in 1975. The latest population estimate for Morocco is from 2015, and the built-up area estimate from 2014.
Source: OECD calculations based on global GHS-POP (2019[2]) grids for the year 2015 and GHS-BUILT grids for the year 2014.
Among the functional urban areas with more than one million inhabitants, Casablanca and Rabat experienced the highest growth in population and built-up area between 1975 and 2014 Casablanca and Rabat doubled their populations during this period (increasing by factors of 2.3 and 1.8, respectively) and expanded their built-up areas by even greater margins (2.45 and 3.4 times, respectively) (Figure 2.10). They were the only two among Morocco's six most populous urban areas to witness an increase in the average space consumed per inhabitant, rising from 39.9 to 42.9 m² per person in Casablanca and from 24 to 45.9 m² per person in Rabat.
Note: The charts compare population growth between 1975 and 2015 with the expansion of built-up areas between 1975 and 2014. GHS-BUILT grids provide the estimated percentage of built-up area for 1km x 1km cells based on satellite imagery. In the chart above, the built-up area is calculated as the sum of percentages for all cells belonging to each functional urban area.
Source: OECD calculations based on global GHS-PO (2019[2]) grids for the year 2015 and GHS-BUILT grids for the year 2014.
Within Casablanca’s urban area, although the population has historically been concentrated in the central commune, population and built-up area grids show that urban expansion has been relatively more significant in the peripheral communes of Mohammedia (northeast), Bouskoura (southwest), and Dar Bouazza (west) (Figure 2.11). In Rabat’s urban area, the built-up area has expanded towards the southwest, particularly in the communes of Skhirate and Harhoura (Figure 2.12).
Note: The black line indicates the boundaries of Casablanca's urban core, while the dotted line represents the commuting zone as estimated by the OECD using the methodology explained in Box 1.3.
Source: Population and built-up area grid GHS 2015 (Florczyk et al., 2019[2]) and functional urban area boundaries delineated using the method described in Annex 2.A.
Note: The black line shows the boundaries of the urban core of Rabat, and the dotted line shows the commuting area according to the OECD estimate according to the methodology explained in Box 1.3.
Source: GHS 2015 Population and built-up area grid (Florczyk et al., 2019[2]) and functional urban area contours, delineated according to the methodology explained in Appendix 2.A.
Projections made by the High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan – HCP) for the 2020-2030 horizon suggest continued population growth in the outskirts of Casablanca and Rabat (Table 2.4). According to HCP estimates, the population is expected to increase by 14% in the province of Mohammedia, 80% in Nouaceur and 92% in Médiouna, while it will increase by only 4% in Casablanca. In the Rabat-Salé-Kenitra region, projections indicate a redistribution of the population from Rabat to the surrounding provinces: Rabat will see a decrease in its urban population of about 17%, while Salé and Skhirate-Témara are projected to see their populations increase by 16% and 33% respectively.
Note: OECD calculations, based on data from the High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan).
Source: High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan), Projection of the urban population of provinces and prefectures between 2014 and 2030 and RGPH 2014 indicators, http://rgphentableaux.hcp.ma/Default1
Moroccan cities are the main drivers of the country's economy, but could benefit more from agglomeration economies
According to the available data from the HCP, the regional distribution of GDP in Morocco suggests that cities are the main driver of the Moroccan economy. Located on the Atlantic coast, the regions of Casablanca-Settat, Rabat-Salé-Kenitra and Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima, home to 44.7% of the country's population and 50.7% of the urban population, were responsible for the creation of about 59% of the national wealth in 2020 (Figure 2.13) (HCP, 2020[13]). The Casablanca-Settat region, a predominantly urban region (73.5% of the total population in 2014), generates about one third of the national GDP, followed by Rabat-Salé-Kenitra (69.7 % of the region’s population lived in urban areas in 2014), responsible for 16% of GDP (Figure 2.13). The GDP per capita of these two regions is also among the highest in the Morocco, reaching MAD 50 129 (about EUR 4 600) per capita in 2020 in Casablanca-Settat, and MAD 37 668 in Rabat-Salé-Kenitra, which is 1.6 and 1.2 times higher than the national average of MAD 32 055.
Notes: Provisional GDP data published by the High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan), at current prices.
Source: High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan) (2020[13]), Regional accounts: Gross domestic product and final consumption expenditure of households and Projection of the urban population of provinces and prefectures between 2014 and 2030 (Responses to the OECD questionnaire).
While urbanisation has played a role as a lever for economic growth in Morocco, this role could be further strengthened by taking greater advantage of “agglomeration economies”, i.e. the increased economic benefits due to the proximity of companies and people (OECD, 2015[14]). These benefits can be explained by several factors, such as knowledge sharing, specialisation, and the creation of dense labour markets (Ahrend et al., 2014[15]). For example, innovation accelerates when people and companies working in the same field are geographically close to each other and can exchange ideas frequently. Dense labour markets (with a large number of workers, specialised in several fields) also facilitate better matching between workers and companies.
However, in the 26 functional urban areas of Morocco with a commuting zone (Annex Table 2.A.1), only 10% of the population resides in the commuting zone (Figure 2.14), which is below the OECD average of 30%. The low rate of population residing in the commuting zone may indicate a lack of infrastructure or transportation services that facilitate daily commuting between the commuting area and the urban centre. In this case, this would limit the access of urban dwellers living in the commuting area to the labour markets of the urban centre and thus risk slowing down the potential of agglomeration economies. In addition to the lack of infrastructure, especially transport, the difficulty of access to land, the persistence of a large informal sector, with nearly 40% of jobs in the informal sector excluding agriculture, and the fragmentation of urban development policies and initiatives between different levels of government and public policy sectors constitute obstacles limiting investment and economic growth in Moroccan cities (for more details on these obstacles and policies implemented to improve the competitiveness of cities in Morocco, see Chapter 4).
Source: OECD calculations, based on the global GHS-POP grids (2019[2]) for 2015. The comparison is made on the sample of ZUFs that have a commuting area separate from the urban centre.
The COVID-19 crisis has had a strong impact on workers in cities
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic dampened Morocco's economic growth, leading to a 7.2% decline in national GDP (HCP, 2021[16]). Morocco's economic rebound in 2021 (by 7.9%) was mainly due to the growth in agricultural activity (17.6%, thanks to bumper harvests).
Tourism, which generated about 7.1% of the national GDP in 2019 and is one of the most dynamic sectors in Moroccan cities, has been hit hard by the economic crisis linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. Between 2019 and 2020, the contribution of the accommodation and catering sector to the national GDP decreased from MAD 50.2 billion to MAD 23.2 billion (a loss of 54%). The regions of Marrakech-Safi and Souss-Massa, where the sector accounted for 12.5% and 9.6% of regional GDP respectively in 2019, were particularly affected (Figure 2.15).
Note: The graph shows the evolution of the GDP of the accommodation and food services sector in the five Moroccan regions where the GDP of the sector contributes the most to the GDP of the region. The contribution of accommodation and catering to regional GDP in 2019 is shown in brackets. Current prices, provisional data for 2020.
Source: High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan) (2020[13]), Regional accounts: Gross domestic product and household final consumption expenditure.
The pandemic has also strongly affected the inhabitants of Moroccan cities. In urban areas, the rate of economic vulnerability3 increased from 4.6% to 5.9% between 2019 and 2021. At the same time, the standard of living of urban households, as measured by per capita consumption, fell from MAD 24 620 to MAD 23 000, a decrease of 6.6% in two years (Haut-Commissariat au Plan, 2022[17]).
Urban unemployment has also increased significantly in the Casablanca-Settat region, which was home to about one in four urban Moroccans in 2020. Within this region, urban unemployment increased the most in the province of Casablanca, from 13% to 18% between 2019 and 2020, followed by the province of Berrechid, with an increase from 8% to 13%. The increase in the unemployment rate in the province of Sidi Slimane in the Rabat-Salé-Kenitra region has also been significant, going from 12% to 21% between 2019 and 2020.
Cities struggle to integrate women and youth into the labour market
The Moroccan labour market is characterised by significant disparities, both between cities and rural areas, and between women and men. While unemployment is low overall in rural areas (6.3% in 2023), Moroccan cities face a much higher unemployment rate (16.8% in 2023), suggesting insufficient job creation to meet the needs of a growing urban population (Haut-Commissariat au Plan, 2024[18]). The lower unemployment rate in rural areas than in urban areas could be explained by the excess supply of rural workforce migrating to cities before being reflected in national unemployment statistics (ECLAC / ILO, 2016[19]).
In addition, women suffer the most from the more difficult employment situation in urban areas. In cities, the participation rate of women is almost four times lower than that of men (18.5% and 66.5% respectively in 2023), and women are about 1.7 times more likely than men to be unemployed (25.0% compared to 14.4% in 2023), or not in education, employment or training (28.7% compared to 15.2% in 2020).
The participation rate is lower in urban areas for all age groups (Figure 2.16). This trend, observed in the majority of countries around the world except in high-income countries (International Labour Organization, 2020[20]), reflects significant differences in living conditions and opportunities in cities compared to rural areas. Urban residents may have better access to social and education services than residents in rural areas, allowing them to remain inactive if the quality or conditions of work are inadequate. Indeed, the large difference in the activity rate observed for the 15-19 and 60 and over age groups suggests that rural residents participate in the labour market earlier than urban residents (instead of continuing their education full-time, which would make them inactive according to the definitions of official statistics), and later (instead of retiring).
Note: The activity rate is the ratio between the active population (people working or seeking to carry out a professional activity) and the population as a whole.
Source: High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan), Statistical yearbooks of Morocco, https://www.hcp.ma/downloads/?tag=Annuaires+statistiques+du+Maroc.
Moreover, these disparities are even more marked between men and women. The activity rate of Moroccan women remains among the lowest in the world, occupying the 180th place in 2018 out of a sample of 189 countries (Lopez-Acevedo et al., 2021[21]). In 2020, around one in five women (19.9%) had or were looking for a paid job, compared to 70.4% of men. This gender gap (50.5pp) is much higher than in OECD countries, where it averages 12pp, and ranges from 3.6pp in Norway to 37.4pp in Türkiye (Lopez-Acevedo et al., 2021[21]) (Figure 2.17). Despite the increase in GDP per capita, the decline in the fertility rate and better access to education, the gap between men and women has remained stuck at around 50pp for the past 20 years (Lopez-Acevedo et al., 2021[21]).
Note: The participation rate is the ratio between the active labour force (persons engaged or seeking to carry out a professional activity) aged 15 and over and the total population aged 15 and over. In the chart, OECD countries are ranked according to the overall labour force participation rate of the population. The figures for the United States correspond to the year 2019.
Source: High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan), Statistical yearbooks of Morocco, https://www.hcp.ma/downloads/?tag=Annuaires+statistiques+du+Maroc and OECD, Regional Labour Market (database), https://stats.oecd.org.
Although the gender gap is comparable in the rural-urban labour force participation rate (52.2pp and 49.5pp respectively), the gap in unemployment rates is much wider in cities than in rural areas (Figure 2.18). In 2021, the unemployment rate for women in urban areas was 11.4 percentage points higher than that for men (25.6% for women versus 14.2% for men). In rural areas, on the other hand, the unemployment rate for women is 1.5 percentage points lower than that for men (3.8 per cent for women compared to 5.3 per cent for men). This gender gap in urban unemployment rates exists regardless of educational attainment (Table 2.5). The unemployment rate in urban areas is higher for women with a degree than for those without a diploma (Table 2.5). The share of young women aged 15-24 who are not in employment, education or training (NEETs) in urban areas is 28.7%, almost twice as high as for men (15.2%) (Haut-Commissariat au Plan, 2022[22]) and well above the OECD average gap (3.2pp between 15.2% for women and 18.4% for men) (Figure 2.19).
Unemployment in cities particularly affects young people, since in 2022, 46.6% of 15-24 year olds in urban areas were unemployed, compared to 24.8% for 25-34 year olds, 8.4% for 35-44 year olds and 4.6% for 45 years old and over (Haut Commissariat au Plan, s.d.[23]). In addition, almost 30% of young people aged 15-24 are not working or investing in their future through training (see Chapter 4 for more details on policies to support employment in cities).
Note: Based on the population aged 15 years and older.
Source: High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan), Statistical yearbooks of Morocco, https://www.hcp.ma/downloads/?tag=Annuaires+statistiques+du+Maroc and High Commission for Planning (2022[22]), Moroccan women in figures.
Source: High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan) (2022[22]), Moroccan women in figures.
Note: People between 20 and 24 years. Indicator for the year 2021, except for Belgium (2020), Chile (2020) and Luxembourg (2018).
Source: OECD (2022[24]), Youth not in employment, education, or training (NEET) (indicator). https://doi.org/10.1787/72d1033a-en.
The digital divide: a barrier to innovation and smart city development
Digital technology and digital transformation are important levers for the development of cities in Morocco, which is a pioneer country in Africa in the adoption of information and communication technologies. The COVID-19 lockdowns have also accelerated the adoption of digital technologies by Moroccan urban residents, both in terms of use and equipment. This progress has also been made possible by strategies implemented by several cities such as the master plans for the digital transformation of the cities of Agadir, Fez and Marrakech. According to the latest Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Survey, the rate of internet use in urban areas increased from 79.7% to 92.4% between 2019 and 2022 (Figure 2.20) (ANRT, 2023[25]), an increase of 12.7 percentage points in three years. The pandemic has also accelerated the adoption of computers/tablets by urban households, from a relatively stable rate of around 72.0% in 2018 and 2019, to 78.7% in 2021 (Figure 2.21) and 82.7% in 2022. The adoption of remote work and remote learning has persisted since 2020, although these practices have decreased following the lifting of pandemic restrictions. In 2021, 22.0% of urban residents in Morocco said they used digital tools for teleworking or remote study, compared to 32.6% in 2020.
Source: ANRT (ANRT, 2020[26]), Survey on Access to and Use of Information and Communication Technologies by Individuals and Households in 2020 and ANRT (2023[25]), Survey on Access to and Use of Information and Communication Technologies by Individuals and Households 2022-2023, https://www.anrt.ma/indicateurs/etudes-et-enquetes/enquete-annuelle-marche-des-tic.
Source: ANRT, Survey on Access to and Use of Information and Communication Technologies by Individuals and Households in 2020 and ANRT, Survey on Access to and Use of Information and Communication Technologies by Individuals and Households 2022-2023 (2020[26]) (2023[25])https://www.anrt.ma/indicateurs/etudes-et-enquetes/enquete-annuelle-marche-des-tic.
Despite these advances, the digital development of Moroccan cities is hampered by low fixed Internet penetration in Morocco. In 2021, only a third of Moroccan urban households had a fixed Internet connection, compared to 91.1% with mobile Internet (Figure 2.22). This fixed internet equipment rate is particularly low compared to OECD countries, which averaged 78.5% in 2021. In rural areas, Internet access is almost exclusively via the mobile network (Figure 2.22).
Source: ANRT, Survey on access and use of Information and Communication Technologies by individuals and households, 2020 (ANRT, 2020[26]) and 2021-2022 (ANRT, 2023[25]), https://www.anrt.ma/indicateurs/etudes-et-enquetes/enquete-annuelle-marche-des-tic
The deployment of fibre optics is a key factor for the development of the “technologies of tomorrow”, such as IoT (“Internet of Things”) and Artificial Intelligence (OECD, 2022[27]), necessary in the development of smart cities. In February 2023, fibre became the leading fixed broadband access technology in 19 of the 38 OECD countries4. In Morocco, the deployment of fibre is at a preliminary stage. Among fixed internet subscriptions, only 17% of Moroccan households were using fibre optics (FTTH) in September 2021 (ANRT, 2022[28]), a penetration rate similar to that of OECD countries such as Czechia and the United States (Figure 2.23).
Note: Figures for June 2022 for OECD countries, and September 2021 for Morocco. Fibre subscriptions include FTTH (fibre to the home), FTTP (fibre to the premises) and FTTB (fibre to the building); Excluded are FTTC (fibre-to-the-cabinet) and FTTN (fibre-to-the-node). Fiber connections can achieve much faster download speeds than traditional digital technologies such as DSL (digital access lines) or coaxial cable. United States and Mexico: Data are preliminary. France: Cable data includes VDSL2 (high-speed digital access line with speeds of 100 to 200 Mbit/s) and fixed 4G solutions. Israel: The data are provisional OECD estimates. Switzerland: Data are estimates.
Source: OECD, Broadband Portal, http://www.oecd.org/sti/broadband/broadband-statistics/ and ANTR (2022[28]), Q3 2021 Internet Market Scoreboard, https://www.anrt.ma/indicateurs/observatoires/internet.
At the end of 2021, Moroccan urban areas enjoyed, on average, a fixed internet speed of 27 Mbps, a level 81% below the average for OECD cities (OECD calculations, based on Ookla open data (2021[29])). There is also a significant digital divide between major cities. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2021, residents of Oujda and Safi had an almost 40% slower connection than residents of Casablanca (Figure 2.24).
Note: The average is weighted by the total number of tests performed in the metropolitan area. Internet speed measurements are based on speed tests conducted by users around the world through Ookla's Speedtest platform. As such, data can be subject to testing bias (e.g., if fast connections are tested more frequently than slow connections), or strategic testing by internet service providers in specific markets to increase averages.
Source: Ookla (Ookla, 2021[29]) Speedtest by Ookla Global Fixed and Mobile Network Performance Map Tiles ; Caldas, Veneri et Marshalian (Caldas, Veneri et Marshalian, 2023[30]), Assessing spatial disparities in Internet quality using speed tests.
Despite a significant improvement in housing conditions since 2004, low-income households are facing increasingly high rents
In recent decades, Morocco has made significant progress in improving housing conditions, particularly for households with lower resources, moving from a policy of allocating lots on public land before the 1990s, to the first social housing programmes aimed at the construction of 200 000 housing units during the period 1992-2002, to the national programme Cities without Slums, launched in 2004, which aimed to eradicate slums in 85 cities and improve the conditions of 270 000 households. By the end of 2023, the Cities Without Slums programme had improved the conditions of 336 587 households and ended slums in 59 cities (see more detailed analysis of the Cities without Slums programme in Chapter 5). This improvement in household conditions is reflected in international indicators: according to UN Habitat, the share of Morocco's population living in slums fell from 24.0% to 3.3% between 2000 and 20205.
Largely due to the various government programmes, housing in urban areas has become more spacious, more modern and more massively connected to urban networks in recent decades. For example, the proportion of urban households occupying 1- to 2-room dwellings decreased from 40.7% to 35.7% between 2004 and 2014 (the dates of the last two censuses), while three- and four-room dwellings predominate in urban areas, accounting for almost half of the housing stock. While just over half of the dwellings are more than 20 years old, one in five urban dwellings (21.2%) was built between 2004 and 2014, and about a quarter of the dwellings are between 10 and less than 20 years old. In addition, households not connected to urban services fell from 10.1% to 4.8% between 2004 and 2014 for electricity and from 17.0% to 8.7% for access to drinking water. The majority of Moroccan urban households (67%) are satisfied with their housing (30% of them say they are "satisfied or very satisfied" with their current living conditions, while 37% consider them to be acceptable). In addition, ambitious programmes for the production of social housing (housing at MAD 250 000 and low-value housing at MAD 140 000) have enabled a very large number of low-income households to become owners of decent and affordable housing, especially those living in slums.
Despite these clear improvements in the quality of urban housing in recent decades, the latest census data show that a significant part of the urban stock continues to be precarious. The concept of “qualitative deficit”, used in OECD countries such as Chile, Mexico and Colombia, is not used as such in Morocco. Unlike the “quantitative deficit” (see below), the qualitative deficit refers to housing that is not considered adequate but can be improved. However, according to the 2012 housing survey – one of the most recent sources on housing in Morocco – nearly a third of the housing stock in the country's urban areas had a level of unsanitary conditions on a six-level scale.6 The first level of insalubrity, which concerns housing with extreme deficiencies, is in fact part of the “quantitative” housing deficit, because it needs to be replaced, accounted for 12% of the urban housing stock in 2012. The “qualitative” deficit of urban housing, corresponding to levels 2 to 6 of insalubrity in the housing survey, concerned 20% of the country's urban housing in 2012. By comparison, the national housing quality deficit was estimated in Chile in 2017 (Henoch, 2022[31]) at 20% and concerned 28.8% of households in Colombia (OECD, 2022[32]). In addition, nearly a third of the substandard urban housing stock was concentrated in the former regions of Greater Casablanca (20%) and Rabat Salé Zemmour Zaër (13%). According to the 2014 General Population and Housing Census (Recensement Général de la Population et de l’Habitat), the regions with the highest urbanisation rates are also those where the share of informal housing and slums in total constructions is the highest. For example, basic housing and slums still accounted for between 11% and 15% of construction in the regions of Casablanca-Settat and Rabat-Salé-Kenitra.
In addition, Moroccan cities must face a growing demand for housing, resulting not only from the need to rehouse households that lived in basic housing or slums, but also from the growth of the urban population. According to the Ministry of National Territory and Urban Planning, Housing and City Policy (hereinafter, MATNUHPV), the quantitative housing deficit reached 206 506 housing units at the national level in 2020 (i.e. about 2.3% of the national stock estimated by the 2014 General Population and Housing Census). In five Moroccan regions, the growth in the number of new housing units built was lower than the projected population growth between 2016 and 2020 (Figure 2.25). This gap between housing demand and supply is particularly pronounced in the Souss-Massa and Oriental regions, with a difference of more than 50pp (see Chapter 5 for an in-depth analysis of the housing and habitat challenge in Morocco's cities).
Note: The population growth rate was calculated based on the HCP's urban population growth forecasts.
Source: MATNUHPV responses to the OECD questionnaire.
Rising commodity prices, driven in particular by the economic effects of the COVID-19 crisis, are likely to further slowdown construction projects in Morocco's cities, reducing the availability of new housing. MATNUHPV data show a decline in production and construction of lots and housing between 2019 and 2020, with a low recovery in 2021. This decline applies to the market as a whole, but also to economic and social housing (Figure 2.26). A similar decline was observed in Casablanca, where demand for housing permits decreased in five of the seven districts between 2019 and 2020, with a particularly large decline in permits related to major projects (Figure 2.27).
Note: Housing units refer to lots and dwellings.
Source: MHPV (s.d.[33]), Main Indicators of the Real Estate Sector - Year 2021.
Source: Data provided by the municipality of Casablanca, in response to the OECD questionnaire.
Moroccan households have also experienced persistent rent increases over the past decade, especially middle- and low-income households. Between 2010 and 2019, Moroccan households saw their rents increase by about 24% on average, with the largest increases for houses on economic lots and economic apartments7, 27% and 24%, respectively (Figure 2.28), types of dwellings that are predominantly occupied by middle- and low-income households. The increase in rents for economic housing has been particularly strong in the regions of Rabat-Salé-Kenitra and Drâa-Tafilalet. In the Rabat-Salé-Kenitra region, the average increase in rents for economic housing exceeded 35% (38% for economic apartments, and 37% for houses on economic lots). The Drâa-Tafilalet region has recorded a particularly strong increase in rent prices for economic apartments, of about 40%, explained by the growing demand for rental housing in the city of Midelt, where the construction of the Noor Ouarzazate solar complex has attracted a large flow of workers (MATNUHPV, 2020[34]).
Note: Rent indices are calculated based on the average rent amounts using the weighting system for new households (SPNM), with the base year set to 2010. The housing typology, as defined by MATNUHPV, includes: (1) villas, typically three-storey constructions with a garden; (2) standing apartments, medium- or high-standard apartments located in modern or luxury residential areas; (3) economic apartments, built in new cities or on economic plots; and (4) economic plot houses, usually self-built homes.
Source: MATNUHPV (2020[34]), Update of the system for monitoring the amounts of rents and rental charges 2016-2019, Drâa-Tafilalet Region, http://www.mhpv.gov.ma/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Plaquette-SSL-region-Draa-Tafilalet-2019.pdf.
Infrastructure and transport in cities
Transport is a major and persistent issue in Moroccan cities. Congestion and the lack of major transport infrastructures (such as metro and tram) affect the spatial distribution of urban inhabitants, especially the poorest. As mentioned in the previous section, according to data from the latest RGPH (2014), only one in four inhabitants of Casablanca and Rabat-Salé worked in their neighbourhood of residence (Delahais, Alouis et Bossard, 2020[35]) – which suggests that access to economic hubs in city centres is constrained, thus limiting urban economies. Access to public transport can also be difficult for a significant part of the population in some cities. According to a study by UN-Habitat and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (2022[36]), less than half of the population in 8 of Morocco's 15 main cities have access to public transport within 500 metres of their homes (Figure 2.29).
Source: UN-Habitat and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (2022[36]), Walking and Cycling in Africa – Evidence and Good Practice to Inspire Action.
To improve urban mobility in Morocco's major cities, prioritising multimodality and providing a strong alternative to private vehicles, the country has invested in large-scale transport projects. The first tram lines are now open in the cities of Casablanca and Rabat-Salé (Box 2.4). Buses Rapid Transit (BRT) – which benefits from dedicated lane traffic, longer vehicles, and interoperability – are also available in Casablanca and Marrakech and are being implemented in Agadir (see Chapter 4 for more details on the policies implemented and recommendations to improve mobility in Moroccan cities).
The tramway brought an important improvement for the inhabitants of Rabat-Salé and Casablanca, where the transport offer was undersized compared to the growing population. In 2014, in the cities of Casablanca and Rabat-Salé-Témara, the number of buses per capita was 0.27 and 0.18 respectively, figures well below the OECD average of 2.68 for the same year.
The introduction of the tramway has facilitated commuting for work and education within the areas served by tramway lines. However, these benefits have not yet been fully extended across the entire urban area, particularly for low-income residents living in areas without tramway access.
The tramway was particularly adopted by women. In 2018, women made 13.5% of their journeys by public transport (trams, buses and taxis), compared to 7.7% of men. The impact of trams on the environment has also been particularly beneficial, with an estimated reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of around 25% in Rabat-Salé and 56% in Casablanca in 2018.
Source: Delahais, Alouis and Bossard (2020[35]), Ex Post Evaluation of the Impacts of the Casablanca and Rabat-Salé Tramways – 2020, French Development Agency (Agence Française de Développement).
Despite an increasing supply of public transport, a significant proportion of intra-urban transport continues to be carried out by motorised vehicles, such as taxis and personal vehicles or two-wheelers. For example, in 2018, only 13% of Casablanca’s inhabitants used buses and trams for their journeys, compared to 25% who relied on motor vehicles8. The rate of motorisation of personal vehicles in Morocco, although it remains very low compared to that of OECD countries (around 80 vehicles per 1 000 inhabitants in 2017, compared to 473 on average in the OECD) (Figure 2.30), is likely to increase as household incomes rise and urban sprawl continues. Acting to prevent this trend early enough is therefore an important challenge for Moroccan cities (see Chapter 4).
Note: The motorisation rate is the number of passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants. For Morocco, this figure was estimated on the basis of the number of passenger vehicles published by the Ministry of Equipment and Water and the HCP's population projections for the year 2017.
Source: ITF (2023), Transport performance indicators, ITF Transport Statistics (database), https://doi.org/10.1787/2122fa17-en; Ministry of Equipment and Water, Road Transport in Figures (2013 – 2017), http://www.equipement.gov.ma/Transport-routier/Chiffres-cles/Pages/Transport-routier-en-chiffres.aspx; High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan), Projection of the urban population of provinces and prefectures between 2014 and 2030 and RGPH 2014 indicators, http://rgphentableaux.hcp.ma/Default1.
Moroccan cities are major emitters of greenhouse gases and are vulnerable to natural hazards
In 2020, Morocco was the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases in North Africa (after Egypt and Algeria), producing about 67.75 Mt of CO2 emissions. These emissions are mainly due to an energy mix that is highly dependent on fossil fuels: in 2020, thermal energy accounted for 80.9% of the country's electricity (Haut-Commissariat au Plan, 2022[37]). In the largest Moroccan urban areas, the greenhouse gas emissions have risen steadily since 1970, particularly in Casablanca, where greenhouse gas emissions associated with production have tripled over the last 50 years (Figure 2.31). The energy and waste sectors are responsible for the largest share of this increase, followed by manufacturing and construction (Figure 2.32). Transport has also been an increasing contributor to emissions in cities. Emissions from transport, linked in particular to the circulation of internal combustion engine vehicles, lead to very localised pollution, with harmful effects on the health and well-being of urban residents.
Note: Production-related emissions. Only CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions are taken into account. Emissions are expressed in tonnes of CO2-eq, based on a 100-year global warming potential. The indicators are calculated on the basis of spatial grids with a resolution of 1° x 1° (about 10km x 10km). For this reason, only functional urban areas of more than 400 km2 were included in the analysis.
Source: OECD calculations, based on the global EDGARv6 grids (Crippa et al., 2022[38]).
Note: Production-related emissions. Only CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions are taken into account. Emissions are expressed in tonnes of CO2-eq, based on a 100-year global warming potential. The indicators are calculated on the basis of spatial grids with a resolution of 1° x 1° (about 10km x 10km). For this reason, only cities larger than 400 km2 were analysed.
Source: OECD calculations, based on the global EDGARv6 grids (Crippa et al., 2022[38]).
In addition to pollution, Moroccan cities are also vulnerable to increased natural hazards related to longer periods of drought, flooding, coastal erosion and soil instability. These phenomena can affect cities directly, or indirectly (for example, through their effect on surrounding agricultural land). Among the direct effects, water scarcity poses a significant risk, in particular for cities in the regions of Marrakech-Safi and Casablanca-Settat (Figure 2.33), which together are home to about 7.7 million urban residents in 2020, or 35% of Morocco's urban population. According to the OECD's latest survey on Water Governance in African Cities, the main water security challenges for Moroccan cities are water pollution (Al Hoceima, Rabat and Chefchaouen), water scarcity and droughts (Al Hoceima), as well as conflicts over water allocation (Marrakech) (OCDE, 2021[39]).
Although this is a more indirect impact, Moroccan cities are also threatened by the major effects of climate change on agricultural land. By 2050, climate models predict that the growing period of crops, which currently runs from November to April, will shorten by 30 days, from November to March (ACCAGRIMAG, 2019[40]). As agriculture is the leading economic sector contributing to the country's GDP, such a decrease would certainly have a significant impact on the economy of cities, through direct effects (e.g. reduction in employment) or indirect effects (risk of food security, inflation).
Moroccan cities also face significant geological hazards such as earthquakes. The September 2023 earthquake in Al Haouz, in the Marrakech-Safi region – the most violent in 120 years with a magnitude of 6.9 on the Richter scale – took a heavy toll with nearly 3 000 victims. The earthquake also caused significant damage. While rural areas with villages were the most affected, with the epicentre recorded in Ighil, a rural commune in the heart of the High Atlas, major cities suffered considerable damage, particularly Marrakesh but also other cities such as Rabat, Casablanca, Essaouira and Agadir. Nearly 2 million people live in the areas heavily affected by the earthquake and it is estimated that about 50 000 homes have been totally or partially destroyed.
Note: The Water Scarcity Risk Index is a synthetic indicator constructed from geospatial, peer-reviewed data describing different dimensions of water scarcity and different methodological approaches used for its estimation (WWF, 2021[41]).
Source: WWF Germany (s.d.[42]), WWF Water Risk Filter (database), https://waterriskfilter.org/explore/countryprofiles.
Green areas are an important adaptation tool to manage the adverse effects of climate change and pollution. For example, temperatures are in principle reduced around 300 meters from a green area (Anderson, Patiño Quinchía et Prieto Curiel, 2022[43]), as well as air and noise pollution. Promoting green areas in cities could thus help limit asthma and heat-related mortality for children and the elderly. On average, Morocco's metropolitan areas now have about 30 m2 green areas per capita, slightly above the average of 26 m2 estimated for cities in Chile or Türkiye, but lower than the average for all OECD cities (OECD, 2022[3]). More than half of Morocco's urban areas (32 out of 58) do not exceed the 20 m2 threshold green areas per inhabitant, including Casablanca. Among urban areas with more than one million inhabitants, only Kenitra offers more than 50 m2 of green areas per inhabitant (Figure 2.34). However, some cities have much higher rates of green areas per capita. This is the case of Rabat, for example, which has 80 m2 of green areas per inhabitant.
Note: Green areas are defined as the sum of treed areas, shrublands and grasslands in the centre of urban areas. The size of the bubbles corresponds to the size of the population of the cities.
Source: OECD calculations, based on ESA WorldCover data (2021[44]).
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In the absence of commuting data, the OECD estimates commuting areas from a commuting time grid (Weiss et al., 2018[10]), a population grid (Florczyk et al., 2019[2]), and a probabilistic model using the actual boundaries of functional urban areas in OECD countries. According to this approach, functional urban areas are based on probabilities and not on the actual daily flows of workers.
The grid-based FUA identified with this method can then be adapted to the administrative boundaries of Moroccan municipalities to facilitate the construction of statistical indicators at the level of the functional urban area. Municipalities are assigned to functional urban areas according to the distribution of their population, determined according to the population grids, and its intersection with the grid-based FUA (Annex Figure 2.A.1).
Source: OECD calculations based on the GHS 2015 population grid (Florczyk et al., 2019[2]) and grid-based FUAs (Moreno-Monroy, Schiavina et Veneri, 2021[11]).
The OECD method identifies 58 functional urban areas in Morocco, 26 of which have a commuting area separate from the city or urban centre (Annex Table 2.A.1). These functional urban areas must exceed the threshold of 50 000 inhabitants.
Source: OECD calculations based on the GHS 2015 population grid (Florczyk et al., 2019[2]), the geometries of grid-based FUAs (Moreno-Monroy, Schiavina et Veneri, 2021[11]) and the geometries transmitted by the Ministry of Spatial Planning, Urban Planning, Housing and Urban Policy.
← 1. According to Article 1 of Law No. 12.90, urban municipalities are municipalities and centres with legal personality and financial autonomy.
← 2. Mobility data from mobile phones were used to delineate functional areas in Estonia (OECD, 2020[45]).
← 3. Economic vulnerability measures the share of the population whose per capita consumption is between 1 and 1.5 times the monetary poverty threshold. This indicator identifies the share of households at risk of falling into poverty in the face of significant economic shocks.
← 6. The insalubrity of housing in Morocco is qualified on the basis of a scale that has six levels. The first level of insalubrity concerns housing with extreme deficiencies. Insalubrity level 2 concerns dwellings lacking at least one of the three basic facilities (drinking water, electricity and sanitation). Level 3 of insalubrity concerns dwellings that do not have a kitchen or separate toilet. Insalubrity level 4 concerns dwellings with a poor interaction with the external environment in terms of sunlight, ventilation and natural lighting. Level 5 concerns dwellings located in a harmful environment such as an infested area, an area with a polluted atmosphere, a harmful microclimate or a nuisance area. Finally, level 6 concerns dwellings with a high occupancy density with less than 9 m2 per person.
← 7. “Houses on economic lots” are low-rent housing generally built by self-construction; “Economic apartments” concern apartments built in new cities or on economic lots.
← 8. Responses of the Ministry of the Interior to the OECD questionnaire.