This chapter presents the public governance drivers that are identified as being positively related to trust in the national government, national civil service, local government and parliament in Slovenia through an econometric analysis. It also shows which of the public governance drivers in Slovenia are similar to those identified in an OECD-wide analysis and which ones differ.
Lessons from the 2023 OECD Trust Survey in Slovenia
Abstract
This section examines the influence of people’s perceptions of public governance on trust in different institutions in Slovenia. Earlier chapters provided descriptive findings about trust levels in public institutions and people's perceptions of government reliability, responsiveness, integrity, openness, and fairness in both day-to-day interactions and in complex decision-making processes. This chapter links measured trust levels and public governance perceptions to investigates how people’s views of the Slovenian public institution's competencies and values relate to their trust in the national and local government, as well as the civil service.
The analysis of the link between public governance perceptions and trust outcomes are based on logistic regression models using data of the 2023 Trust Survey from Slovenia (see Box 4.1). Trust in the respective institution (coded as a binary variable, where 0 corresponds to low or no trust and 1 to high or moderately high trust) are linked to the public governance variables and the individual respondents’ demographic and socio-economic characteristics, whether they voted for the current government and their level of interpersonal trust. From this analysis emerge drivers that have a statistically significant relationship with trust, meaning that individuals who view the respective driver more positively are also more likely to have high or moderately high trust in the respective institution. While the results need to be interpreted with caution, as trust can also influence how people view different aspects of public governance and as not all factors that can impact trust are measured through the survey, they nonetheless provide robust indications of policy areas in which interventions that could improve perceptions can likewise yield gains in trust.
The analysis of public governance drivers of trust in Slovenia outlined in this chapter suggests three main findings. First, determinants of trust vary across institutions, indicating the need for more targeted policies to build or enhance trust in the national government, local government, parliament or civil service. Second, drivers related to complex decision-making on society-wide issues, such as evidence-informed decision-making and positive perceptions of intergenerational fairness are key drivers of trust in the national government and to a lesser degree the civil service in Slovenia. Conversely, drivers related to day-to-day interactions between institutions and the public, for instance satisfaction with administrative services, significantly influence trust in the local government and civil service. At a workshop in September 2024, representatives of different Slovenian ministries discussed the findings of the report and identified potential trust-enhancing policy actions (see Annex C).
In Slovenia, trust in the national government is primarily driven by the confidence people have in the government's decision-making process being evidence-based, with those having higher confidence being 8.3 percentage points more likely to trust their national government (Figure 4.1). This is closely followed by the perception that the government fairly balances the interests of current and future generations, which increases the likelihood of trust of trust in the national government by 7.4 percentage points. Other factors that have a measurable but smaller impact include the adoption of innovative ideas improving public service, the national parliament balancing the needs of different regions and societal groups, and the national government clearly explaining the impact of reforms (between 2.9 and 3.5 percentage points).1 Given that only a small share of the Slovenian population have a positive perception of these public governance dimensions, investing in improving these perceptions can nonetheless generate substantial trust dividends.
Percentage point change in high or moderately high trust in the national government in response to improvements in selected public governance variables (X-axis) and OECD unweighted average respondents' satisfaction in the noted variables (Y-axis)
Note: The figure shows the statistically significant determinants of trust in the national government in a logistic estimation that controls for individual characteristics, including whether they voted or would have voted for one of the current parties in power, self-reported levels of interpersonal trust and whether people perceive themselves to belong to a discriminated group in their country. Relevance for trust indicates the average marginal effect associated with the variable. One of the variables has a negative correlation with trust in the national government, which is not depicted here. All variables depicted are statistically significant at p<0.1.
Source: OECD Trust Survey 2023
High to moderately high trust in parliament is influenced by a multitude of factors (see Figure 4.2). The largest driver is the perception that government decisions are evidence-based, which bolsters the likelihood that someone will have high or moderately high trust in parliament by 8.0 percentage points. Next is the belief that parliament effectively balances the needs of diverse groups, enhancing trust by roughly 7.0 points. Just 29 and 27% of the population, respectively, are currently satisfied with these two aspects of public governance in Slovenia, indicating a real opportunity for improvement. Additionally, the sense that government thoughtfully considers the interests of both current and future generations can yield a 5.4 percentage points increase to trust in parliament. Other drivers that have a discernible, though less pronounced, effect on trust in parliament include the government's readiness to protect its people in emergencies, which heightens trust by around 3.6 percentage points, and satisfaction with administrative services, which is associated with a 3.0 percentage points increase in trust.
Percentage point change in high or moderately high trust in the national parliament in response to improvements in selected public governance variables (X-axis) and OECD unweighted average respondents' satisfaction in the noted variables (Y-axis)
Note: The figure shows the statistically significant determinants of trust in the national parliament in a logistic estimation that controls for individual characteristics, including whether they voted or would have voted for one of the current parties in power, self-reported levels of interpersonal trust and whether people perceive themselves to belong to a discriminated group in their country. Relevance for trust indicates the average marginal effect associated with the variable. One of the variables has a negative correlation with trust in the national government, which is not depicted here. All variables depicted are statistically significant at p<0.1.
Source: OECD Trust Survey 2023
Likewise, several factors contribute to fostering trust in local government. Most notably, citizens’ perception of having a voice in local decisions plays a significant role, boosting trust levels by 7.9 percentage points (Figure 4.3). Similarly, satisfaction with administrative services also enhances trust in the local government by about 7.0 percentage points. The balancing act of the national parliament, addressing the needs of diverse groups, further bolsters trust by nearly 4.7 percentage points. Other factors that have a smaller influence on trust in local government include the government's flexibility to change policies based on majority opinion, its ability to protect people during large-scale emergencies, and its decisions being evidence-based, each of these contributing an increase of 3.2 to 4.2 percentage points.
Percentage point change in high or moderately high trust in the local government in response to improvements in selected public governance variables (X-axis) and OECD unweighted average respondents' satisfaction in the noted variables (Y-axis)
Note: The figure shows the statistically significant determinants of trust in the local government in a logistic estimation that controls for individual characteristics, including whether they voted or would have voted for one of the current parties in power, self-reported levels of interpersonal trust and whether people perceive themselves to belong to a discriminated group in their country. All variables depicted are statistically significant at p<0.1. Relevance for trust indicates the average marginal effect associated with the variable.
Source: OECD Trust Survey 2023
In Slovenia, trust in the civil service is driven by a multitude of public governance factors. Above all, satisfaction with administrative services plays a crucial role, with individuals who report higher satisfaction in this area being 6.9 percentage points more likely to trust the civil service (Figure 4.4). Fairness in treatment by public employees is another significant element, with individuals who have a more positive perception of fair treatment being 5.9 percentage points more likely to have high or moderately high trust in the civil service. Positive perceptions that the government balances the interests of current and future generations, makes decisions based on the best available evidence, and uses personal data only for legitimate purposes, with these factors increasing trust by 4.5, 5.0, and 5.1 percentage points respectively. Current levels of satisfaction with these various public governance drivers are unequal, suggesting different margins of maneuver for improvement. For instance, people in Slovenia are largely satisfied with administrative services, while they are significantly less optimistic about the government balancing the interests of different generations. Lastly the readiness of government institutions to protect people in emergencies is also associated with higher trust in the civil service.
Percentage point change in high or moderately high trust in the civil service in response to improvements in selected public governance variables (X-axis) and OECD unweighted average respondents' satisfaction in the noted variables (Y-axis)
Note: The figure shows the statistically significant determinants of trust in the national civil service in a logistic estimation that controls for individual characteristics, including whether they voted or would have voted for one of the current parties in power, self-reported levels of interpersonal trust and whether people perceive themselves to belong to a discriminated group in their country. All variables depicted are statistically significant at p<0.1. Relevance for trust indicates the average marginal effect associated with the variable.
Source: OECD Trust Survey 2023
Comparing the results of the analysis of trust drivers in Slovenia to the OECD-wide analysis (OECD, 2024) shows that the patterns of the main trust drivers in Slovenia are similar to the OECD averages. For example, for trust in the national government, the two most important drivers of trust in Slovenia are identical to the two most important drivers based on data from the 30 participating countries. Likewise, satisfaction with administrative services emerges as the most important driver for trust in the civil service in both the OECD wide analysis and the civil service analysis, and drivers of trust in the local government largely mirror each other. However, some dimensions of public governance appear to influence trust in Slovenia, even though they did not emerge as a driver in the OECD wide analysis. For instance, the likelihood that the government would adopt innovative ideas if it could improve services is associated with higher levels of trust in the national government in Slovenia only. Likewise, the increased confidence in the parliament’s ability to balance the interests of different groups in society appears as a driver of trust in the local government in Slovenia but does not emerge as such in the OECD wide analysis.
Average marginal effects of the logistic regressions for the OECD and Slovenia
Note: The table displays the average marginal effect for each variable that influences trust in the respective public institution. Each entry in the table represents the extent to which a change in the variable impacts trust levels, holding all other factors constant. A value of “--” indicates that the effect is not statistically significant.
Source: OECD Trust Survey 2023 and (OECD, 2024).
An important caveat of this comparison is that the sample on which the Slovenian analysis is based is by necessity much smaller than the joint sample for the 30 participating countries. Smaller sample sizes make it more difficult to identify statistically significant effects that might be identified based on a larger sample. The implication of this caveat is that factors that were identified as drivers of trust in the cross-national analysis but that do not emerge as drivers in the Slovenia-only analysis may in reality have an impact on trust in Slovenia as well, though a smaller one than the drivers identified above. For instance, while having a say in what the government does is associated with a 3.1 percentage point increase in trust in the national government in the OECD wide-analysis, it does not appear as a driver in the Slovenia-only analysis. Similarly, confidence in the parliament’s ability to hold the government accountable is a driver of trust in the local government at the OECD-wide level but is not reflected in the Slovenia only drivers. Initiatives that improve perceptions of these and other public governance dimensions may therefore yield trust dividends too.
Exploring the role of different factors in trust levels through econometric analysis can help develop targeted strategies to enhance public trust. Statistical tools can estimate the relationship between factors like socio-demographic variables and public governance drivers and public trust. Despite methodological challenges related to the possibility that trust levels can likewise influence perceptions of the governance drivers and that external factors not measured in the survey can affect both trust levels and public governance perceptions, econometric analyses remain valuable tools for understanding which public governance drivers are most strongly associated with trust. The results from this analysis serve as a directional guide for governments and state servants on which aspects to leverage or enhance to build trust.
As outlined by the OECD Framework on the Drivers of Trust, the key factors influencing the individual-level trust in public institutions are likely to be their perceptions of the institutions' responsiveness, reliability, openness, integrity, and fairness, as well as their feelings of political agency. To measure trust in each institution, the survey asks: “On a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 being not at all and 10 being completely, how much do you trust each of the following?”. In the logistic regression analyses, trust is recoded as a binary variable, where 0-4 represents low or no trust, and 6-10 represents high or moderately high trust. Responses marked as neutral (5) or “don’t know” are not included in the analysis.
In the statistical analysis, government competencies are quantified using 19 variables, assessed on a 0-10 scale, and standardized for analytical purposes. Political agency is operationalized through variables assessing internal and external political efficacy, reflecting an individual's confidence in participating in politics and their belief that individuals like them have a voice in government decisions. Additionally, perceptions of government actions on global and long-term challenges are captured through variables gauging confidence in the country's ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and confidence in the government's consideration of both current and future generations' interests.
The logistic regression model controls for individuals' socio-demographic factors (age, gender, education), interpersonal trust, perception of belonging to a discriminated against group, and financial concerns. Additionally, it controls for whether respondents voted (or intended to vote) for one of the parties currently in power. For each dependent variable, a sub-set of predictors is selected based on stepwise regression. All models include survey weights. Missing data are excluded using listwise deletion.
The technical interpretation of the effect of government’s reliability in taking evidence-based decisions on trust, for example, is that a one-standard-deviation increase in perceived reliability is associated with an 8.3 percentage point increase in trust in the national government. Or – taking into consideration all other variables in the model – all else being constant, moving from the average citizen to one with a typically higher level of confidence in government’s reliability is associated with in an 8.3 percentage point increase in trust in the national government.
← 1. The opportunity to voice an opinion on a local government decision in a matter that affects the local community likewise has a statistically significant, but negative relationship with trust in the national government (average marginal affect: -4.4).