Global value chain repositioning

This brief presents experimental estimates of Trade in Value Added (TiVA) indicators for 2023–24, produced through the OECD's nowcasting framework covering 41 economies and 24 sectors. The estimates provide early insights into the evolution of global value chain (GVC) integration at a time when policymakers face pressing questions about supply chain resilience, reshoring, and economic security. The results point to limited aggregate changes in GVC participation in 2023–24, suggesting a slower pace of deglobalisation compared with the 2020–22 period. Country heterogeneity remains substantial, with adjustment paths shaped by industrial structure, trade composition, and policy settings. The brief also documents the continued servicification of manufacturing exports and examines economies' positioning along forward and backward GVC linkages. A post-mortem evaluation of the 2024 nowcasting exercise assesses predictive accuracy and identifies areas for methodological refinement. The analysis is intended to support evidence-based policy dialogue on trade, industrial strategy, and global value chain resilience.