Following rapid growth in the second half of the 20th century, the population in Korean urban centres grew at a comparable pace to that of urban centres in other OECD countries between 2005 and 2020. However, Korea’s population peaked in 2020 and is expected to decline by around 15 million by 2070, equivalent to nearly one-third of today’s population. Towns (between 5 000 and 50 000 inhabitants) and villages (500 to 5 000 inhabitants) face the fastest population decline, especially those furthest away from major cities in the northwest and southeast of the country.
Korea experiences a particular challenge given the very high concentration of its population in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), which accounted for half of the country’s population and 53% of its GDP in 2020. While the population of the SMA is expected to remain at around 26 million, the population in non-SMA regions is projected to decrease to 23.9 million by 2040. The attractiveness of the SMA — marked by a well-educated workforce, convenient access to financial resources, and superior infrastructure — has further intensified the concentration of activity in these regions. While such concentration offers clear benefits through agglomeration economies, it also imposes significant societal costs, including increased traffic congestion, housing shortages, and environmental challenges such as air and water pollution. At the same time, rural areas face persistent struggles to create new employment opportunities and to advance critical infrastructure projects, as longstanding economic challenges and limited investment hinder development in these less populated regions.
On top of the high concentration in the SMA, ongoing demographic changes in Korea are expected to bring about profound and unprecedented effects across all aspects of society. For instance, the share of working-age people is expected to drop to 46% by 2070, compared to around 71% today, which translates into more demand for health and care services and fewer resources to finance service provision from work-related tax collection.
Ensuring quality infrastructure and service provision can help plan a future with more balanced urban development. People of all ages across the country should be connected to places offering a wide range of services without requiring long trips. Difficulties in accessing high-quality services locally translate into increased pressure to out-migrate for more geographically mobile demographic groups, like the youth and families with small children, and lower quality of life for more immobile groups, like the old-age population. These dynamics increase the competition to access services in already congested areas like the SMA, as well as cost pressures in less dense areas. Labour shortages, which can occur in both types of places, can exacerbate these problems.
In this scenario, regional hubs – places that offer education, healthcare, retail, and leisure services – can serve as cornerstones for a compact-and-connected strategy in Korea. This report introduces a novel methodology to identify and assess the performance of 37 regional hubs across Korea based on the distance to the next settlement larger than them and the availability of diverse services. The list of regional hubs includes Korea’s most significant urban centres, as well as towns exerting a centre function for nearby rural populations.
The performance of regional hubs is amplified when connectivity within them and with their surrounding areas is high and when they are well-connected to the rest of the country. Some regional hubs are currently disconnected from the railway network, which can be a problem for people who are unable to drive. Commuting in Korean cities – particularly between suburbs of large regional hubs – is largely car-dependent due to long transfer times and indirect routes of bus and railway systems. In the City of Seoul, only about 20% of commutes are made by car, whereas in the provinces of Gyeonggi and Incheon – both part of the Seoul Metropolitan Area – the share is significantly higher at 61% and 54%, respectively. Additionally, depopulation is reducing demand for public transport, which in turn threatens its financial viability, creating a cycle that further limits accessibility and service quality. This highlights an urgent need to transform the spatial development patterns of regional hubs into more compact ones.
Moreover, access to key services such as childcare facilities, doctors, and pharmacies within a 15-minute walk varies across and within regional hubs. On average, a higher share of children in the 37 regional hubs lives close to childcare facilities compared to the overall population in these hubs, indicating facility locations match the location of demand for those services. In contrast, doctors and pharmacies are less accessible to older adults in these hubs than to their general population.
