As digital transformation accelerates, measuring digital trade is quickly becoming a trade policy imperative. In the absence of official statistics, we produce experimental estimates of digital trade aligned with the definitions in the Handbook on Measuring Digital Trade. The Handbook defines digital trade as the sum of digitally ordered and digitally delivered trade, minus any overlap.
We develop two methodologies to estimate the digitally ordered component of digital trade. The first approach uses an e-commerce lens, capturing the share of turnover ordered digitally across borders. The second approach takes an international trade perspective, focusing on the share of exports that is digitally ordered. These estimates are combined, at the industry level, with digitally delivered trade figures published by the World Trade Organization to derive estimates of total digital trade.
Both approaches point to a clear upward trend in digital ordering from 2010 to 2023, though the pace and scale vary by country. Overall, digitally ordered trade plays an increasingly significant role in cross-border exchanges, representing nearly half of total digital trade and growing at a similar pace than digitally delivered services. In tandem, we see an upward trend in total digital trade during the period.
Going forward, the OECD will compile a database of experimental digital trade estimates using the international e-commerce approach. This database will include 24 countries and 7 sectors of the period 2010-2023 in the first instance, with plans to include Canada and the United Kingdom in due course. Other countries will be added as appropriate. To complement the international e-commerce approach, the OECD will also use the international trade approach, which requires fewer input variables, to derive experimental digital trade estimates. These estimates will include 29 countries over the period 2010-2022
Looking ahead, estimates could be enhanced by improving data collection – particularly via surveys that distinguish between domestic and international e-commerce, better industry-level statistics, and new data collection on imports, B2C transactions, and digital platforms. Strengthening measurement in these areas would support more robust, granular, and internationally comparable measures of digital trade.
