Consumers may encounter risks shaped by the broader economic environment in which they operate. This chapter describes the most significant risks stemming from the operating environment. These risks include financial scams and frauds, risks associated with the increasing use of digital technology including artificial intelligence (AI), as well as levels of inflation and interest rates.
Consumer Finance Risk Monitor 2026
Abstract
Certain risks to financial consumers stem from the operating environment and the broader economic context. This chapter analyses the most significant operating-environment risks facing consumers in 2025 and the anticipated trends over 2026 (i.e. whether these risks will increase, decrease or stay the same).1 Figure 2.1 presents a heatmap of these risks, with the placement of each risk determined by the percentage of jurisdictions that selected it among the three most significant risks stemming from the current operating environment (the x-axis) and whether those jurisdictions expected that the significance of that risk would increase, decrease or stay the same in 2026 (the y-axis). It also shows how the top operating‑environment risks have changed since the Consumer Finance Risk Monitor 2024.
The following key findings emerge:
Financial scams and frauds are overwhelmingly the leading operating-environment risk currently facing consumers, identified by 85% of responding jurisdictions. As shown in Figure 2.1, this is the only operating-environment risk positioned in the upper-right quadrant of the heatmap, meaning that it was identified by a majority of respondents and was anticipated, on average, to increase in significance in 2026.
The second most significant operating-environment risks are the increasing use of digital technology (including AI), and levels of inflation and interest rates, selected by 36% of responding jurisdictions.
In the Consumer Finance Risk Monitor 2024, levels of inflation and interest rates were the most significant operating-environment risk (in 2022), selected by over 85% of participating jurisdictions (OECD, 2024[1]). This suggests that while the current inflation and interest rate environment continues to affect consumers, the risks appear less pronounced than in 2022 or have been overshadowed by other issues. In the 2024 edition, inflation and interest rates were followed by financial scams and frauds, new business models and financial market volatility.
Note: N=59 (2025). The x-axis (horizontal) presents the percentage of responses to questions asking for the top three operating-environment risks currently facing consumers. The y-axis (vertical) presents responses to a follow-up question asking whether jurisdictions anticipate the risk would increase, decrease, or stay the same in 2026. Risks to the right of the y-axis were selected by more than half of respondents. As the risk category “increasing use of digital technology (including AI)” was added to the Reporting Template in 2025, the figure does not illustrate movements relative to the 2024 edition.
Source: OECD Consumer Finance Risk Monitor Reporting Template 2025 & 2023.
Figure 2.2 shows how the significance of risks differs by jurisdictions’ income levels.2 While the predominant concern across all income levels is financial scams and frauds, the second and third most significant operating-environment risks diverged significantly by income level. Low- and middle-income jurisdictions are relatively more concerned about levels of inflation and interest rates (44% versus 29% for high-income jurisdictions). This is consistent with data showing that, although inflation has declined in emerging markets and developing economies, it is generally higher than in high-income economies, as noted in Chapter 1. Additional concerns for low- and middle- income jurisdictions include cyber attacks (selected by 40% of this group versus 24% of high-income jurisdictions), as well as limited financial infrastructure (12% versus 3%) and natural disasters (12% versus 6%). High-income jurisdictions are more concerned about financial market volatility (24% versus 8%), risks associated with new business models (24% versus 16%) and socio-political instability (21% versus 11%) as other key risks facing financial consumers.
Note: N=25 for “Low & Middle” and N=34 for “High.” Percentages show the share of jurisdictions within each income group that selected the risk as one of the three most significant operating-environment risks.
Source: OECD Consumer Finance Risk Monitor Reporting Template 2025.
Financial scams and frauds are the leading operating-environment risk facing financial consumers. Figure 2.3 shows the percentage of jurisdictions where the number of financial scams and frauds decreased, stayed the same or increased between 2024 and 2025 (light blue columns), alongside corresponding data for 2021-2022 (dark blue markers). Financial scams and frauds increased in 69% of responding jurisdictions between 2024 and 2025. Between 2021 and 2022, they had increased in 72% of responding jurisdictions, showing that this risk has generally persisted over time (OECD, 2024[1]). For example, fraud-related losses nearly quadrupled in Canada between 2020 and 2024, from CAD 165 million to CAD 645 million. In Australia, consumers incurred AUD 2 billion in losses in 2024, and in Singapore, roughly SGD 456 million were lost by consumers to scams in the first half of 2025 alone.
Note: N=32 for 2024 to 2025, and N=29 for 2021 to 2022.
Source: Consumer Finance Risk Monitor Reporting Template 2025 & 2023.
Table 2.1 shows the most significant types of scams and frauds, by number of people affected and by the amount of financial losses. Consistent with the Consumer Finance Risk Monitor 2024, the three most significant types of financial scams and frauds by number of people affected were: phishing, vishing or smishing for personal information (selected by 83% of respondents); fraudsters posing as banks, financial advisers, or other financial services providers (78%); and fake schemes designed to tempt consumers to transfer, pay, or invest money or purchase fake insurance (67%). The table shows a clear correlation between the most significant types of frauds and scams across two dimensions: number of people affected and financial losses.
Note: N=54 for most significant type of financial scams and frauds by people affected. N= 47 for most significant type of financial scams and frauds by financial losses.
1 Scammers obtain personal information, such as user IDs, passwords, Personal Identification Numbers (PINs), and other sensitive data by impersonating an authorized person or organization through email or other electronic media. This causes the victim’s personal data (including sensitive data) to be used without their knowledge, including getting access to their accounts (account takeover). Depending on the form, this is referred to as Phishing (Internet), Smishing (SMS), or Vishing (Phone).
Source: Consumer Finance Risk Monitor Reporting Template 2025.
There is a strong consensus among high-income jurisdictions around a relatively small number of dominant fraud types, especially phishing, vishing or smishing, and fraudsters posing as financial services providers. Both were identified as major types of fraud by over 90% of respondents. In contrast, fraud types in low- and middle‑income jurisdictions were more varied, with no single type of fraud identified as frequently. Half of high-income jurisdictions cited the risk of fraudsters posing as officials, compared with 15% low- and middle-income jurisdictions.
The growing complexity of the financial sector, partly driven by digitalisation, has heightened the risk for consumers of falling victim to financial scams and frauds. One contributing factor is the widespread use of generative AI to facilitate increasingly convincing and realistic scams and fraud schemes (OECD, 2025[2]). For example, generative AI enables fraudsters to mimic voices, produce deepfake video calls, and fabricate synthetic identities (European Parliament, 2025[3]). The rise of digitalisation has also created new opportunities for fraudsters to exploit gaps in financial consumers’ knowledge. Many individuals’ relatively limited understanding of cryptocurrency has made them the target of phishing attacks, where fraudsters target sensitive information related to online wallets (Huang, 2024[4]). For example, authorities in Ireland noted that the sophistication of fraud techniques, including fake or imitation trading platforms, clone investment firms, and impersonation via “smishing” or social engineering, was increasing. Authorities in Italy noted that generative AI is increasingly used to lure investors into scams.
As financial scams and frauds become increasingly sophisticated, many consumers, especially those who may be vulnerable or who may have lower digital financial capability (discussed further in Chapter 3), are susceptible to falling victim to these schemes. According to Consumers International, a consumer groups organisation, more than half of higher vulnerability consumers have fallen victim to scams, compared to 19% of lower vulnerability consumers (OECD, 2025[5]).
Regulatory approaches to address scams and frauds include risk management measures and consumer awareness (Boeddu and Chien, 2022[6]). For example, to combat online financial fraud, supervisory authorities in Italy have issued public warnings drawing attention to common practices to steal users’ money and personal data. Additionally, Hong Kong (China) has implemented various measures to strengthen the security of credit card and electronic banking services, as part of anti-fraud and anti-scam efforts. In Mauritius, authorities have issued investor alerts to warn the public about entities or individuals not authorised to provide investment services in the country.
The OECD provides guidance related to financial scams and frauds across a range of instruments, including the Recommendation of the Council concerning Guidelines for Protecting Consumers from Fraudulent and Deceptive Commercial Practices across Borders [OECD/LEGAL/0317] and the G20/OECD High Level Principles on Financial Consumer Protection (G20/OECD Financial Consumer Protection Principles) (OECD, 2022[7]). Given the growing incidence and severity of financial scams and frauds around the globe, protecting consumers from this risk is a policy priority of increasing attention. The forthcoming report, Protecting Consumers from Financial Scams and Frauds (OECD, forthcoming[8]) stems from findings in the Consumer Finance Risk Monitor 2024. The report has three main objectives: identifying the drivers of increased incidence of financial scams and frauds; articulating a typology of financial scams and frauds targeting financial consumers; and developing effective financial consumer protection policies and financial education initiatives to protect consumers from financial scams and frauds. It will provide recommendations to assist policymakers, regulators and supervisors in protecting financial consumers and engage in a more systematic monitoring and analysis of different types of financial scams and frauds, based on effective approaches from around the globe. This report will therefore complement the Consumer Finance Risk Monitor by highlighting how policymakers can address this key risk facing financial consumers.
The second most significant risk stemming from the operating environment relates to the increasing use of digital technology, including AI. Digitalisation is one of the three cross-cutting themes in the G20/OECD Financial Consumer Protection Principles, noting that the impact, opportunities and risks of digitalisation and technological advancements for financial consumers are relevant to the implementation of each and all of the Principles. This includes considering the ways in which consumers increasingly interact with digital financial products and services, consumer behaviour in a digital environment, as well as the impact of greater use of AI, machine learning technology and algorithms (OECD, 2022[7]).
The use of digital technology (including AI) in financial products and services is rapidly increasing. While digital technology and AI present many benefits to consumers, it is an area policymakers, regulators and supervisors are monitoring closely, given the new risks they may also present to consumers. These risks include financial scams and frauds, as highlighted in Section 2.1. Financial fraudsters may leverage digital technologies to broaden their pool of potential victims, while the use of AI facilitates sophisticated fraud schemes through the creation of misleading content, falsified documents, and the manipulation of consumer trust, as noted by Bulgaria. Latvia and Zambia, for example, reported how digital technologies facilitated phishing and romance scams.
Authorities from Hong Kong (China), Malta and Spain noted concerns about data privacy and integrity linked to the increasing use of digitalisation and AI, as well as algorithmic bias and lack of transparency in decision making. For example, AI underwriting models in the consumer credit sector could produce inaccurate or biased outcomes. In South Africa, industry experts consider discriminatory outcomes in the banking sector as a significant risk associated with AI technologies. Given the complexity of AI models, there are inherent risks such as limited explainability and the potential for hallucinations (OECD, 2023[9]). As a result, outputs may be incorrect due to missing critical information, which may have significant consequences for customers (Brousse et al., 2024[10]).
Respondents including Brazil and Uruguay highlighted that the rising usage of digital technology, including AI, may exacerbate the risk of financial exclusion for consumers with low digital capability. A further discussion on this can be found in Chapter 3.
Besides these risks, digital innovation in financial products and services can bring wide-ranging benefits to consumers. AI in particular can help drive significant improvements in the delivery of financial products and services. For instance, generative AI can help enhance fraud detection, facilitate efficient credit underwriting, and drive expedient customer service support (OECD, 2023[9]). The European Central Bank found that of the financial institutions they assessed, 30% used AI for credit scoring and 62% for fraud detection (European Central Bank, 2025[11]).
Levels of inflation and interest rates are the third most significant risk stemming from the operating environment. This marks a decrease from the Consumer Finance Risk Monitor 2024, in which levels of inflation and interest rates were the top risk facing financial consumers (OECD, 2024[1]). This may be driven by the fact that, while still above target levels in many jurisdictions, global headline inflation declined in the interim (OECD, 2025[12]) and generally remained stable over 2025 (OECD, 2025[13]). Looking forward, jurisdictions anticipate that consumer risks related to levels of inflation will remain stable in 2026.
Furthermore, while inflation is stabilising in many jurisdictions, it remains high relative to pre-pandemic levels, impacting the cost of goods and services and driving ongoing cost-of-living pressures. In Portugal for instance, despite the easing of inflation and the decline of interest rates in 2025, both remain at higher levels than prior to 2022 and continue to place many households under financial strain. Malta and Montenegro both reported that despite declining inflation, the persistent effects of previous years continue to impact consumers who face reduced purchasing power and diminished savings.
In many jurisdictions, the frequency of borrowing to manage day-to-day expenses is increasing. Higher interest rates could further intensify cost-of-living challenges and limit consumers’ capacity to manage expenses and increase savings. For example, as of the fourth quarter of 2025, 41% of Canadians reported that their debt levels had increased in the prior 12 months, and 55% reported used savings to cope with current economic conditions (Financial Consumer Agency of Canada, 2025[14]). Other jurisdictions, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, reported similar trends of households increasingly using credit for basic living expenses, despite elevated borrowing costs. In Uzbekistan, consumers are experiencing higher debt burdens due to high lending rates, leading to a growing number of complaints from borrowers. Authorities in Indonesia reported that the increase in global interest rates has also affected domestic interest rates, raising borrowing costs and putting pressure on household purchasing power.
The fourth, fifth and sixth most significant risks that financial consumers face from the operating environment are cyber attacks (31% of respondents), financial exclusion (22%), and new business models and innovation (20%).
2.4.1. Cyber attacks
Jurisdictions largely anticipate that this risk will increase over 2026. As noted above, the increased digitalisation of the financial sector makes both consumers and firms more susceptible to attacks. For instance, North Macedonia, Mauritius and Türkiye noted that breaches in cybersecurity in financial institutions can lead to the theft of personal information, business interruption and financial loss. The Philippines and Malaysia highlighted that these risks are increasing as more financial services move online. Indonesia noted their current work to address this, through regulations that set out requirements on information system security and cyber resilience for payment system providers (Bank Indonesia, 2024[15]).
2.4.2. Financial exclusion
Jurisdictions largely anticipate that the risk of financial exclusion will remain stable over 2026. Although digital financial services have expanded financial access in many jurisdictions, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies, they can also heighten the risk of financial exclusion for some consumers who struggle to use them or do not wish to. Further, and even among emerging markets and developing economies, there are still gaps in access and inclusion across a range of consumer segments, including by gender, income, residency (urban or rural), and workforce participation, among others (CGAP, BTCA, GPFI, and World Bank, 2024[16]). Recent OECD work highlighted that a shift towards digital payments reduces the availability and acceptance of cash, thereby creating barriers for some consumers, especially as the number of ATMs and physical bank branches declines (OECD, 2025[17]). Jurisdictions echoed these concerns in their responses. The Philippines, for example, underscored that consumers lacking access to digital infrastructure or financial literacy were left behind by the increased digitalisation of financial services. The Netherlands noted that increased digitalisation of products and services may pose a risk for those who are not digitally proficient, especially if physical branches are closed. Canada and Poland also pointed to access challenges for rural and remote populations, noting that the reduction in physical locations makes it harder for people who do not want to or cannot access online services to use certain financial products.
Increased digitalisation can create issues in everyday banking for consumers that are denied accounts or have had their accounts previously terminated. For example, Sweden noted that the high level of digitalisation of its market necessitates having access to a digital payment account with basic features. Australia noted that financial exclusion can be driven by a number of factors including broader economic conditions (e.g. weak labour markets), ongoing digital transitions (e.g. reduced access to cash), and limited focus on distributional impacts (e.g. low-income earners having limited choice of suitable banking products). Some jurisdictions are taking actions to address this issue. For example, in Ireland, the recent Finance (Provision of Access to Cash Infrastructure) Act 2025 supports efforts to address financial exclusion by ensuring continued access to cash. As cash usage declines, the legislation establishes a framework to manage future changes to cash infrastructure in a fair and transparent manner.
2.4.3. New business models and innovation
Among respondents that identified this risk, many anticipate that it will increase in 2026 due to a variety of factors, including the provision of riskier products, limited consumer understanding of the products themselves, power asymmetries between consumers and financial services providers, and regulatory gaps. For example, Serbia noted that many consumers are struggling to keep up with the rapid pace of innovation in financial services in terms of understanding the products. Similarly, Romania explained that online loans and complex digital products can obscure fees and contractual conditions, making it difficult for consumers to fully understand the products they are taking on. Italy highlighted that the growing use of alternative digital distribution channels creates risks of over‑indebtedness and exposes vulnerable groups to aggressive Buy Now Pay Later or other new product offerings. Additionally, Brazil reported that the expansion of diverse business models increases supervisory complexity and widens the information gap between firms and consumers, especially among vulnerable populations.
References
[15] Bank Indonesia (2024), Regulation, https://www.bi.go.id/en/publikasi/peraturan/Pages/PBI_022024.aspx.
[6] Boeddu, G. and J. Chien (2022), Financial Consumer Protection and Fintech : An Overview of New Manifestations of Consumer Risks and Emerging Regulatory Approaches, World Bank Group, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099735204212299868.
[10] Brousse, C. et al. (2024), Artificial intelligence challenges for the financial system, https://www.banque-france.fr/system/files/2024-10/Artificial_intelligence_challenges_for_the_financial_system.pdf.
[16] CGAP, BTCA, GPFI, and World Bank (2024), G20 Policy Options to Improve Last Mile Access and Quality of Inclusion Through Digital Infrastructure, Including Digital Public, https://www.cgap.org/sites/default/files/publications/G20%20Policy%20Options%20to%20Improve%20Last%20Mile%20Access%20and%20Quality%20of%20Inclusion.pdf.
[11] European Central Bank (2025), AI’s impact on banking: use cases for credit scoring and fraud detection, https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/supervisory-newsletters/newsletter/2025/html/ssm.nl251120_1.en.html.
[3] European Parliament (2025), Scam calls in times of generative AI, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2025/777940/EPRS_ATA(2025)777940_EN.pdf.
[14] Financial Consumer Agency of Canada (2025), Dashboard on Canadians’ financial well-being, https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/programs/research/summary-covid-19-surveys.html.
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[2] OECD (2025), “Artificial intelligence in Asia’s financial sector: A review of country policies”, OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers, No. 50, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/3385bbd8-en.
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[1] OECD (2024), Consumer Finance Risk Monitor, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/047b2ea6-en.
[9] OECD (2023), “Generative artificial intelligence in finance”, OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers, No. 9, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/ac7149cc-en.
[7] OECD (2022), G20/OECD High-Level Principles on Financial Consumer Protection 2022, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/48cc3df0-en.
[19] OECD (n.d.), Recommendation of the Council concerning Guidelines for Protecting Consumers from Fraudulent and Deceptive Commercial Practices across Borders, https://legalinstruments.oecd.org/en/instruments/OECD-LEGAL-0317 (accessed on 16 December 2025).
[8] OECD (forthcoming), Report on protecting consumers from financial scams and frauds.
[18] World Bank (2026), World Bank Country and Lending Groups, https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519.
← 1. Throughout this report, "currently" refers to any risks, actions, methods or processes that were actively taking place or being carried out at the time the jurisdictions were responding to the Reporting Template (i.e. 2025), and could also reflect the outcomes of risk assessments that were carried out by the responding jurisdictions (i.e. as part of an annual risk assessment report).
← 2. Income levels are based on the World Bank Country Classification (using gross national income per capita) (World Bank, 2026[18]).