This chapter describes the context and aims of the study of the future of teaching in Wales and provides an overview of the methodology used.
Constructing Scenarios for the Future of Teaching in Wales
Abstract
Since the transfer of legislative powers for self-governance to Wales by the United Kingdom parliament in 1999, education has become a responsibility of the Welsh Government. Significant value has been attached by the Government to its education system, with Wales considering education to be a ‘national mission’ (Welsh Government, 2023[1]):
“In Wales, education is our national mission. Together we will achieve high standards and aspirations for all, tackling the impact of poverty on attainment and ambition. All learners, whatever their background, are supported to be healthy, engaged, enterprising and ethical citizens, ready to play a full part in life and work”.
The high stakes are illustrated by an ambitious education agenda since 2014, that focuses on issues that are specific to the Welsh context (OECD, 2020[2]; Furlong et al., 2021[3]). For example, the Welsh Government has set the target of having one million Welsh speakers by 2050. Each of Wales’s 22 local authorities developing a Welsh in Education Strategic Plan (WESP), setting out its strategy in making sure the use of Welsh and the number of Welsh speakers is increased, with schools creating favourable conditions to do so (Welsh Government, 2024[4]). This includes making Welsh-medium education readily available, and providing learners with options to learn Welsh in English-medium schools (Welsh Government, 2024[4])
In addition to the investments in the Welsh language, the Welsh Government identifies a strong focus on narrowing the achievement gap between children and young people from advantaged and disadvantaged backgrounds as a priority for Wales. In 2019, 27 per cent of learners in Wales were eligible for free school meals in the previous six years, often used as an indication of being disadvantaged in the United Kingdom (Cardam-Diaz and Sibieta, 2022[5]). Wales hosts a number of communities who are historically disadvantaged (Egan, 2016[6]). By building strong relationships and partnerships and taking action to tackle disadvantage, the Welsh Government aims to generate more equal outcomes through education (Welsh Government, 2023[1]).
More recently, the Cabinet Secretary for Education outlined additional directions towards improving educational standards in Wales. This included a focus on the culture for school improvement:
We're also building a new culture for school improvement, with school-to-school and collaborative working at the heart. This builds on the review of education partners’ roles, which highlighted the need for national leadership. I am therefore establishing a new education improvement team within the Welsh Government to engage directly with local authorities on shared goals; a new national body for professional learning, which will respond to changing practitioner and Government priorities; and a national coherence group, which will review local authority partnership models. (Welsh Government, 2024[7]).
Welsh policy reforms influencing teachers
In order to facilitate the above goals, the Welsh education system has developed several programmes to renew, improve, and build further on existing practices over the past decade (Welsh Government, 2023[1]). These programmes are, when considered in parallel are quite extensive and have the potential to fundamentally change the future of education in Wales.
Schools as Learning Organisations (SLOs) is one of these initiatives, promoting team learning, collaboration and learning with and from the external environment (OECD, 2018[8]). Although moving from policy to practices has had it difficulties, SLO has the potential to create schools as catalysts for change, provided close attention and facilitation is provided to achieve its full potential (Harris et al., 2022[9]; Elder, 2022[10]).
Since 2016, Wales has been in the process of implementing a new curriculum, the Curriculum for Wales, which is a significant move from the previous curriculum, allowing for more autonomy for teachers and striving to create a better learning experience for learners (OECD, 2020[2]; Donaldson, 2015[11]; Sinnema, Nieveen and Priestley, 2020[12]). The Curriculum for Wales started its roll-out in Year 7 in 2022/2023 and will continue a step-by-step implementation process that will reach Year 11 in 2026/2027. It has been identified that the curriculum changes will require strong, autonomous teachers who are able to navigate and adapt to their learners’ needs (Hughes and Lewis, 2020[13]; Kneen et al., 2021[14]).
The Welsh teaching profession has seen considerable reforms in the past decade. The reforms have been aimed at realising a profession that is better adjusted to the needs of learners within the context of the Curriculum for Wales. For example, initial teacher education in Wales has been reformed in order to ensure universities and schools work closely together to support their learners as well as preparing them to work with the Curriculum for Wales (Furlong, 2016[15]; Furlong et al., 2021[3]; Welsh Government, 2020[16]). Professional standards have been developed, describing what is expected of teachers, both early career and experienced professionals and those in leadership positions (Welsh Government, 2017[17]). Teacher leadership has also been an important focus (National Academy for Educational Leadership Wales, 2024[18]).
These and other reforms are in line with Wales key objective to maintain, develop and support high quality teaching and leadership, considered one of the enabling objectives of its national mission (Welsh Government, 2023[1]). The Government supports career-long professional learning and support for all staff through a range of programmes, from initial training through to leadership. These include the National Professional Learning Entitlement, which aims to support teachers in their professional learning journey (Welsh Government, 2024[19]) This is undertaken through well-designed professional learning, opportunities for reflection, enquiry and collaboration for learning, and within the context of schools as learning organisations.
To ensure all practitioners have access to quality professional learning, the Welsh Government has established a National Endorsement Panel (Welsh Government, 2022[20]; Welsh Government, 2024[21]). Endorsement ensures that provision which meets criteria relating to quality that, when delivered in the appropriate context, enables high level professional learning. The first programme to be endorsed by the panel was Wales’ National Induction Programme for Newly Qualified Teachers.
While these reforms were on-going, the world changed, and so did Wales. Sudden crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the cost of living crisis have had a significant and often negative impact on society, and also on education, both in Wales and abroad (Thomas, Crick and Beauchamp, 2023[22]; Hughes et al., 2024[23]). Teachers and other educational staff report that these factors have not made their job any easier, and have added to a workload that was already considered significant (Grigg, 2016[24]; NASUWT, 2024[25]). In addition, it has led to a sense of reform fatigue, particularly as new skills needed to realise the Curriculum for Wales have become the focus (Evans, 2022[26]).
These, and other sentiments were communicated during the workshops that the OECD organised in collaboration with the Welsh Government and the University of Bangor. It is important to take stock and consider how the teaching profession in Wales might look in the future. The overall commitment remains to empower educators and to develop “Welsh solutions” that meet the needs of learners, teachers, schools and communities.
At the beginning of the stakeholder workshops, the Welsh Government team described some of the challenges and opportunities that set the context for the Future of Teaching study in Wales. These involve developing a long-term workforce strategy that positively contributes to the work of teachers and to education more generally. Some of the particular challenges relate to a changing societal context following the pandemic and an absence of clear career paths for new teachers. Particular opportunities include the focus on a shared Welsh identity, an ethos of public service in Wales, the new education environment being developed over the last decade, and a commitment to ensure a sustainable workforce.
The Welsh Government invited the OECD to undertake a study to progress thinking and start anticipating proposed changes for teacher professionalism, empowerment, and identity. In collaboration with the Welsh team and a range of different stakeholders, the study was conducted between January and November 2024.
Building on the existing (Welsh and international) evidence base, and drawing on a diverse range of perspectives, the study aims to explore a positive and sustainable narrative for the future of the teaching profession in Wales. It aims to generate a set of preferred scenarios for the future of teaching, that provide visions for the mid to long-term, supported and designed by a broad group of education partners.
Specifically, the study has four core research questions for the future of teaching, which were formulated in conjunction with the Welsh Government. These were formulated after discussions with Welsh Government officers. They look to the long-term future of the teaching profession in Wales while also responding to current issues in recruitment. The four research questions for the study are:
1. How do we develop teacher professional identity and a more collaborative profession?
2. How could a career development perspective for all staff in schools contribute to a vibrant and thriving workforce?
3. How can all who work in schools encourage innovation and the examination of professional roles in schools as learning organisations?
4. How could investment in the professional identity of teachers, especially in secondary schools, make the profession in those settings more attractive?
These questions were developed by the Welsh Government to inform a long-term strategy for the future of the teaching profession in Wales. Stakeholders considered how the scenarios for the future of teaching in Wales would address these research questions (see Chapter 4).
The study was performed through a structured process with four main activities (see Table 2.1), advancing from preparation, to development, to field work activities and lastly to summarising the findings of the study. The project methodologies apply strategic foresight (Fuller, 2017[27]; Amsler and Facer, 2017[28]; Holfelder, 2019[29]). The process was contextualised to match the situation, expectations and needs of the Welsh education system prior to starting with the activities.
Note: Material gathered as part of the OECD study on New Professionalism and the Future of Teaching in Wales.
The methodology for the study is based on stakeholder participation: different stakeholders active in or around the education sector should be involved. A mapping process of possible stakeholders was undertaken to identify who could be involved to participate during the different activities of the study.
Stakeholder groups involved in the study include practitioners (school leaders, teachers, school learning support workers and student teachers), policy makers (local and national level), together with representatives from education consortia, teacher unions and higher education (Initial Teacher Education (ITE) and academics).
Infographic 2.1. provides a visual representation of the methodology of the study, including the relationships between key components.
Limitations
Participation in the study was voluntary. Snowball sampling was used to invite stakeholders. A set of possible participants were invited initially by the Welsh Government. The initial invitees could also forward the invitation to colleagues and other relevant stakeholders. A limitation of this study is that the stakeholder participants in each of the study activities are not a representative sample but rather a group of willing people who offered to share their expertise.
Research seminar
To adapt the research tools and gain a better understanding of the Welsh context, an online research seminar was organised. Thirty researchers, policy makers and teacher educators took part in this event. The research seminar provided feedback to develop both the ambition loops tool as well as the teacher personas tool, both were refined for use in the subsequent phases of the study.
For the Ambition loops tool, including examining the research questions that were formulated by the Welsh Government, four additional “What if…” areas and 22 related ambition loops were added after the online research seminar (see the bolded statements in Table 2.2). Some original ambition loops (see McGrath (2023[30])) were deleted for manageability and some other statements were changed to align to the Welsh educational context. Research relevant to the Welsh context was added throughout the Ambition loops framework. A list of Ambition loops that were selected during the workshops and further development of the study can be found in Annex B.
Note: Each “What if…” statement summarises a set of ambition loops. The bolded statements refer the new statements which were added following the Welsh online research seminar.
Source: Adapted from (McGrath, 2023[30]), “What systematic connections should we have around schools to support the work of teachers?: Global lessons and the potential of ambition loops”, https://doi.org/10.1787/77de597c-enh.
During the online research seminar, the concept of teacher personas was presented to participants. Input was provided to consider numerous developments within Welsh society, schools, and the teacher workforce to inform the personas. This resulted in a ‘longlist’ of possible persona ideas to be considered in the Welsh context. The participants shared research from Wales to support the personas ideas.
Table 2.3 provides an overview of the longlist, as well as examples of some of the motivations and arguments that were mentioned during the online research seminar, and the personas which were ultimately selected for further refinement. The longlist did not identify the different education sectors, as these were identified during the online research seminar, nor were the longlist suggestions identified as possible contenders. It was acknowledged that not all suggestions would be used in the personas, and some would be discarded. Rather, the longlist personas served as background information for the developed personas. The subsequent developed personas were constructed using parts or whole elements of the longlisted personas. During the in-person workshops an additional persona (“student teacher”) was added at the suggestion of participants.
Note: The shortlist was restricted to seven teacher personas for manageability in their use. The shortlisted teacher personas sought to cover as many ideas from the longlist as possible.
*During the in-person mission an additional, seventh persona (“student teacher”) was added at the suggestion of participants.
After selecting the Welsh teacher personas, the second step of the study was to begin the actual development. Work began by identifying relevant categories or traits that would shape the different personas. The selected personas were developed as a set of two fictional characters, to highlight both positive and negative effects of the categories attributed to the set. The personas that were constructed for the purpose of this study are grounded in research from Wales and international research. A total of 47 different categories were developed and attributed to the personas 100 times. An overview of the developed categories that shape the personas can be seen in Figure 2.1.
Chapter 3 presents the personas in a narrative fashion, with all elements linked to research in bold, and zooms in on a number of highlighted categories. The categories were highlighted because they (a) are indicative of features present in all of the personas (for example: the use of digital tools in schools) or (b) because they are of specific relevance to the context, character or feature of the specific persona described. Annex A presents an overview of the other categories that were derived and the research supporting these. Lastly, the personas have been captured in quotes responding to the scenarios that were developed in this study.
Note: A total of seven sets of two persona types were constructed. Age and Gender are categories that are represented in all teacher personas, while the other categories have been represented in one or more sets of persona types.
Material gathered as part of the OECD study on New Professionalism and the Future of Teaching in Wales.
Stakeholder survey (data collection)
A next step in the study was to collect different perspectives on ambitions for the future of teaching from stakeholders in the education sector. Survey respondents from a variety of stakeholder groups were asked to rate each ambition and “What if…” statement on a scale of importance (Very important/Important/ Not important) and the level of change that they thought would be required to attain the suggested ambitions (Area of strength/ Short-term improvement/ Longer-term transformation). Overall, the statements expressed in the survey were rated of very high importance to the Welsh education system. On average, respondents indicated that 87% of the statements were of high importance. All ambitions rated higher for longer- term transformation and shorter-term improvement compared to being an area of strength. There was no particular theme related to the ambition statements rated to be of lower importance.
Table 2.4 highlights themes that were distilled from an analysis of the top 20 statements with the highest ratings for importance from the stakeholder survey in each of the levels of change.
Note: Material gathered as part of the OECD survey on New Professionalism and the Future of Teaching in Wales (N=72).
Stakeholder workshops
Two stakeholder workshops were held in Bangor and in Cardiff in June 2024. Most of the participants had completed the stakeholder survey. At the start of the workshop, each participant had the opportunity to review the ambition loops and results from the stakeholder survey. In addition, participants were asked to highlight 10 statements that reflected their preferred scenario for the future of teaching/ education best, using stickers to highlight their selection. Along with the survey results, the results from this exercise were discussed in a plenary session of the workshop.
Stakeholders then worked collaboratively, using the ambition loops statements and their own discussions to generate preferred future scenarios for the future of teaching/ education. Once generated, there was an opportunity to feedback on the proposed scenarios, including input for backward mapping to discuss possible actions to realise preferred future scenarios. At the end of the session, each group had the opportunity to strengthen their draft scenario based on the feedback.
A total of six preferred future scenarios were created across the two workshops. As outlined in the workshops, one of the next steps was to produce a manageable number of preferred scenarios for further development. A final total of four scenarios were developed by merging scenarios with similarities. Column one of Table 2.5 shows the long list of six scenarios created at the workshops. Column two shows the set of four final scenarios. As part of the stakeholder workshops, 53 ambition loops/ what if statements out of a 158 total available were included in the long list of preferred future scenarios developed (see Annex A).
Note: Material gathered as part of the OECD study on New Professionalism and the Future of Teaching in Wales.
Teacher personas
Following the stakeholder workshops, the OECD team worked with a group of representatives from local authorities, ITE providers, Regional education consortia and the Welsh Government. A key focus of this session involved using the Welsh teacher personas to consider the relative benefits of the scenarios for different teacher personas as well as considering ways to action each of the scenarios. During the session, it was agreed that a seventh Welsh persona would need to be constructed, in order to highlight the needs of student teachers. The next chapter outlines the seven personas that were developed for this study, for which the methodology is described in (Textbox 1.1 and Chapter 2). The final set of preferred scenarios for the future of teaching/ education, and the perceived responses from the personas are detailed in Chapter 4.
References
[28] Amsler, S. and K. Facer (2017), “Contesting anticipatory regimes in education: exploring alternative educational orientations to the future”, Futures, Vol. 94, pp. 6-14, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.FUTURES.2017.01.001.
[5] Cardam-Diaz, J. and L. Sibieta (2022), Inequalities in GCSE results across England and Wales, Education Policy Institute, https://epi.org.uk/publications-and-research/inequalities-in-gcse-results-across-england-and-wales/ (accessed on 1 October 2024).
[11] Donaldson, G. (2015), Successfull Futures: Independent Review of Curriculum and Assessment Arrangements in Wales, https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2018-03/successful-futures.pdf (accessed on 17 March 2025).
[6] Egan, D. (2016), “Educational Equity in Wales”, Cylchgrawn Addysg Cymru / Wales Journal of Education, Vol. 18/1, https://doi.org/10.16922/wje.18.1.4.
[10] Elder, Z. (2022), An Exploration of “Schools as Learning Organisations” as a Catalyst for School and System Change, Swansea University, https://doi.org/10.23889/suthesis.61976 (accessed on 1 October 2024).
[26] Evans, G. (2022), “Back to the future? Reflections on three phases of education policy reform in Wales and their implications for teachers”, Journal of Educational Change, Vol. 23/3, pp. 371-396, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10833-021-09422-6.
[27] Fuller, T. (2017), “Anxious relationships: The unmarked futures for post-normal scenarios in anticipatory systems”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 124, pp. 41-50, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.TECHFORE.2016.07.045.
[15] Furlong, J. (2016), “Initial teacher education in Wales– A rationale for reform”, Wales Journal of Education, Vol. 18/1, https://journal.uwp.co.uk/wje/article/336/galley/355/view/ (accessed on 2 September 2024).
[3] Furlong, J. et al. (2021), “The reform of initial teacher education in Wales: from vision to reality”, Oxford Review of Education, Vol. 47/1, pp. 61-78, https://doi.org/10.1080/03054985.2020.1842180.
[24] Grigg, R. (2016), “’Leave me alone and let me teach.’ Teachers’ views of Welsh Government education policies and education in Wales”, Cylchgrawn Addysg Cymru / Wales Journal of Education, Vol. 18/1, https://doi.org/10.16922/wje.18.1.6.
[9] Harris, A. et al. (2022), “Schools as Learning Organisations in Wales: A critical exploration of the international evidence base”, Cylchgrawn Addysg Cymru / Wales Journal of Education, Vol. 24/1, https://doi.org/10.16922/wje.24.1.3.
[29] Holfelder, A. (2019), “Towards a sustainable future with education?”, Sustainability Science, Vol. 14, pp. 943-952, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-019-00682-z.
[23] Hughes, K. et al. (2024), “Examining relationships between adverse childhood experiences and coping during the cost-of-living crisis using a national cross-sectional survey in Wales, UK”, BMJ Open, Vol. 14/5, p. e081924, https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2023-081924.
[13] Hughes, S. and H. Lewis (2020), “Tensions in current curriculum reform and the development of teachers’ professional autonomy”, The Curriculum Journal, Vol. 31/2, pp. 290-302, https://doi.org/10.1002/curj.25.
[14] Kneen, J. et al. (2021), “Pioneer teachers: How far can individual teachers achieve agency within curriculum development?”, Journal of Educational Change, Vol. 24/2, pp. 243-264, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10833-021-09441-3.
[30] McGrath, J. (2023), “What systematic connections should we have around schools to support the work of teachers?: Global lessons and the potential of ambition loops”, OECD Education Working Papers, No. 296, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/77de597c-en.
[25] NASUWT (2024), Wellbeing at Work Survey 2024, https://www.nasuwt.org.uk/static/17ad7ef2-879e-40d4-96b3c014e605746a/Teachers-Wellbeing-Survey-Report-2024.pdf (accessed on 1 October 2024).
[18] National Academy for Educational Leadership Wales (2024), About us, https://nael.cymru/en/about (accessed on 1 October 2024).
[2] OECD (2020), “Achieving the new curriculum for Wales”, OECD Education Policy Perspectives, No. 7, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/37ba25ee-en.
[8] OECD (2018), Developing Schools as Learning Organisations in Wales, OECD Publishing, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264307193-en.
[12] Sinnema, C., N. Nieveen and M. Priestley (2020), “Successful futures, successful curriculum: What can Wales learn from international curriculum reforms?”, The Curriculum Journal, Vol. 31/2, pp. 181-201, https://doi.org/10.1002/curj.17.
[22] Thomas, E., T. Crick and G. Beauchamp (2023), “Editorial — Envisioning the Post-COVID “New Normal” for Education in Wales”, Cylchgrawn Addysg Cymru / Wales Journal of Education, Vol. 25/2, https://doi.org/10.16922/wje.25.2.1.
[4] Welsh Government (2024), Cymraeg 2050: Welsh Language Strategy Action Plan 2024 to 2025, https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/pdf-versions/2024/5/3/1716370530/cymraeg-2050-welsh-language-strategy-action-plan-2024-2025.pdf (accessed on 1 October 2024).
[21] Welsh Government (2024), National Professional Learning Entitlement, https://hwb.gov.wales/professional-learning/leading-professional-learning/national-professional-learning-entitlement/#roles-and-responsibilities (accessed on 30 October 2024).
[19] Welsh Government (2024), Professional Learning, https://hwb.gov.wales/professional-learning (accessed on 30 October 2024).
[7] Welsh Government (2024), Statement by the Cabinet Secretary for Education: Improving educational standards in Wales, https://educationwales.blog.gov.wales/2024/11/06/statement-by-the-cabinet-secretary-for-education-improving-educational-standards-in-wales/ (accessed on 6 November 2024).
[1] Welsh Government (2023), Our National Mission: High Standards and Aspirations For All, Welsh Government, https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2023-03/our-national-mission-high-standards-and-aspirations-for-all_0.pdf (accessed on 15 March 2024).
[20] Welsh Government (2022), Welsh Government Integrated Impact Assessment: National Professional Learning Entitlement, https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2022-09/NPLE-integrated-impact-assessment-sections-1-8.pdf (accessed on 30 October 2024).
[16] Welsh Government (2020), Learning To Be A Teacher For Wales: The Induction Of Teachers Into The Profession, https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2020-11/learning-to-be-teacher-wales-induction-teachers-into-profession.pdf (accessed on 5 February 2025).
[17] Welsh Government (2017), Professional Standards for Teaching and Leadership, https://hwb.gov.wales/professional-learning/identifying-professional-learning-needs/professional-standards (accessed on 5 February 2025).