This chapter examines perceptions of social and economic risks in the United Kingdom in comparison to other OECD countries. Drawing primarily on questions from OECD Risks That Matter 2022 about short- and long-term social risks, it explores the comparative level of concern in the United Kingdom and examines which risks most worry people in the United Kingdom. Results point to comparatively strong concerns in the United Kingdom, especially after adjusting for country differences in population composition. Health care and making ends meet top the worry list for people in the United Kingdom, as they do for people in most other OECD countries.
Attitudes Towards Social Risks and Social Protection in the United Kingdom
Insights from the OECD Risks that Matter Survey
Abstract
This chapter looks at perceptions of social and economic risk among people in the United Kingdom and how these perceptions compare to other OECD countries. The chapter draws primarily on two questions from OECD Risks That Matter 2022 on concerns about short- and long-term social risks, including job loss and the possibility of falling ill, as well as access to healthcare, housing, education, and long-term care (Box 2.1). It explores the level and degree of concern about social and economic risk in the United Kingdom, and examines which risks worry Brits the most.
Results point to a level of concern in the United Kingdom that is stronger than in many of its peer countries. Brits express stronger concerns about social and economic risks than people in most other G7 countries, including France, Germany, and the United States, and far stronger concerns than respondents in the OECD’s best performers, like Denmark, Norway and Switzerland. Economic development might be one factor (the best-performing countries tend to be among the OECD’s wealthiest), as might the breadth and depth of social protection (they tend also to run some of its most expansive social protection systems). UK concerns are particularly strong after adjusting for country differences in population composition: on a like‑for-like basis, people in the United Kingdom express stronger concerns about short-term social risks than people in all covered OECD countries other than Chile, Greece and Spain.
Drilling down into specific issue areas, accessing healthcare and making ends meet top the worry list for people in the United Kingdom, as they also do for people in most other OECD countries. Just under three‑quarters (72%) of UK respondents report feeling at least “somewhat” concerned about their ability to access good-quality healthcare over the next year or two – the eighth highest share among covered OECD countries, and a higher share than in most other G7 members – with 69% feeling similarly about paying expenses and making ends meet. However, concerns can differ across population groups. For example, housing is an important concern for young adults – much more so than for older age groups, with the age gap larger in the United Kingdom than in most other OECD countries.
This chapter is built around two main questions from OECD Risks That Matter 2022. Both centre on respondents’ risk perceptions and the extent to which they are concerned about a series of social risks. The first concentrates on “short-term” risks, defined as the next year or two:
Thinking about the next year or two, how concerned are you about each of the following?
Becoming ill or disabled.
Losing a job or self-employment income.
Not being able to find/maintain adequate housing.
Not being able to pay all expenses and make ends meet.
Not being able to access good-quality childcare or education for your children (or young members of your family).
Not being able to access good-quality long-term care for elderly family members.
Not being able to access good-quality long-term care for young.
Being the victim of crime or violence.
Having to give up my job to care for children, elderly relatives, or relatives with illness or disability.
Accessing good-quality healthcare.
The second asks respondents to look further into the future and to think about risks stretching beyond the next ten years:
Looking beyond the next ten years, how concerned are you about the following?
Not being as well-off and financially secure as your parents and/or that you had hoped to be.
Your children (or young members of your family) not being as well-off and financially secure as you are.
Becoming ill or disabled.
Not having the right skills and knowledge to work in a secure and well-paid job.
Not being financially secure in old age.
Not being able to find/maintain adequate housing.
Not being able to access good-quality long-term care for yourself.
Not being able to access good-quality long-term care for elderly family members.
Not being able to access good-quality long-term care for young or working-age family members with an illness or disability.
Accessing good-quality healthcare.
In both cases, respondents are provided with a set of closed response options. These are: 1. Not at all concerned; 2. Not so concerned; 3. Somewhat concerned; 4. Very concerned; 5. Can’t choose/Not applicable.
Source: OECD (2023) OECD Risks That Matter Survey 2022: Core Questionnaire, https://webfs.oecd.org/Els-com/RtM/OECD-Risks-That-Matter-2022-Core-Questionnaire.pdf.
Concerns about short-term risks are slightly below the OECD RTM average but stronger than in most other G7 countries
Worries about social and economic risks have spread widely in recent years. OECD Risks That Matter asks people how concerned they feel about a series of social and economic issues over the next year or two, including job loss and the possibility of falling ill, as well as their access to healthcare, housing, education, and long-term care (Box 2.1). Results point to strong concerns across many countries (Figure 2.1). Worries tend to be strongest in the OECD’s less wealthy economies, such as Chile and Mexico, reflecting the day-to-day challenges faced by many in these countries. Concerns are less frequent, but still common, in members of the G7 group of advanced economies (Canada, France, Italy, Germany, the United States) and other wealthy OECD economies (e.g. Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands). Accessing healthcare and making ends meet are particularly frequent concerns in many countries, with an average of about two‑thirds of respondents to Risks That Matter being at least “somewhat” concerned about both (OECD, 2023[1]).
Average net concern across ten short-term social and economic risks, 18‑ to 64‑year‑olds, 2022
Note: Average net concern is based on a scale measuring average concern across a series of ten specified short-term social and economic risks. The underlying responses are scaled as follows: “Not at all concerned” (‑100), “Not so concerned” (‑33.333), “Somewhat concerned” (33.333) and “Very concerned” (100). The final scale can range from ‑100 in the case that all respondents in the given country chose “Not at all concerned” for all ten items, to 100 in the case that they all chose “Very concerned”. Estimates exclude respondents with three or fewer valid responses. See Box 2.1 for question wording and Annex A for more detail on scale construction.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter survey 2022, https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html.
Respondents in the United Kingdom express concerns about social and economic risks that are stronger than in many similarly wealthy countries. Figure 2.1 shows average net concern across the ten short-term social and economic risks (see Box 2.1), with “net” referring to the balance of respondents expressing positive and negative concern. UK respondents feel overall more concerned than not about these short-term risks. At 8 points, average net concern in the United Kingdom is slightly lower than the OECD RTM average (10 points) and well below the levels seen in the most concerned countries like Mexico (47 points) and Chile (55 points), but higher than all other members of the G7 except Italy (25 points) and far higher than the best-performing countries like Switzerland (‑10 points), Norway (‑10 points), and the Netherlands (‑11 points).
Health care and finances top the worry list for people in the United Kingdom
Drilling down to specific issue areas, healthcare and finances are the priority concerns for people in the United Kingdom, just as they are for people in many other OECD countries. Comparing across the ten short-term social and economic risks, accessing good-quality healthcare is the most frequent concern for respondents in the United Kingdom (Figure 2.2): 71% report feeling at least “somewhat” concerned about their ability to access good-quality healthcare over the next year or two, well above average average for both covered G7 and covered OECD countries (66% and 65%, respectively). Concerns about healthcare are followed closely by concerns about paying expenses and making ends meet (68%).
These top concerns – healthcare and finances – echo those highlighted by UK respondents in other data collections. For example, the UK ONS’ Opinions and Lifestyle Survey regularly finds that the National Health Service (NHS) and the cost of living are the most frequently cited “important issues facing the UK today” (ONS, 2024[2]). Polling data from both Ipsos and YouGov point similarly to healthcare and the economy as priority concerns for many in the United Kingdom (Ipsos, 2022[3]; YouGov, 2024[4]), as also does the OECD Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions (Trust Survey) (OECD, 2024[5]). Evidence from both Risks That Matter and elsewhere suggests that concerns around the economy may have peaked around the time of the RTM fieldwork and have likely eased since (Box 2.2).
Percentage of respondents who report being somewhat or very concerned by each risk over the next year or two, 18‑ to 64‑year‑olds, the United Kingdom, G7 average and OECD RTM‑27 average, 2022
Note: G7 refers to the unweighted average across the six available members of the G7 group of major economies. See Box 2.1 for question wording.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter Survey 2022, https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html.
Except for issues relating to healthcare and finances, UK respondents tend to be less concerned about short-term risks than the average across OECD RTM countries (Figure 2.2). In comparative terms, concerns around accessing long-term care services and childcare and education services for young family members are particularly infrequent – the latter perhaps surprising, given that childcare is more expensive in the United Kingdom than anywhere else in the OECD (OECD, 2023[6]). Some issue areas remain important for certain subgroups, such as housing for young people (Box 2.3). However, for the general population, issues relating to healthcare and financial and economic security dominate short-term concerns.
Concerns about long-term risks are strong in the United Kingdom, with healthcare and finances again top of the list
As well as short-term concerns, OECD Risks That Matter asks respondents how worried they feel about a series of ten longer-term social and economic risks – risks that might stretch further into the future, beyond the next ten years or so. Concerns are again relatively widespread across countries, and on balance are generally stronger than concerns about short-term risks (Figure 2.3). UK concerns are again stronger than in many of its peer countries. At 26 points, average net concern in the United Kingdom is similar to the OECD RTM average (26 points) and below the most concerned countries (e.g. Mexico, Chile), but stronger than in other G7 countries with the exception of Italy (38 points) and well above the best performers, like the Netherlands (5 points), Denmark (5 points) and Norway (4 points).
Average net concern across ten long-term social and economic risks, 18‑ to 64‑year‑olds, 2022
Note: Average net concern is based on a scale measuring average concern across a series of ten specified long-term social and economic risks. The underlying responses are scaled as follows: “Not at all concerned” (‑100), “Not so concerned” (‑33.333), “Somewhat concerned” (33.333) and “Very concerned” (100). The final scale can range from ‑100 in the case that all respondents in the given country chose “Not at all concerned” for all ten items, to 100 in the case that they all chose “Very concerned”. Estimates exclude respondents with three or fewer valid responses. See Box 2.1 for question wording and Annex A for more detail on scale construction.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter survey 2022, https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html.
As with the short term, issues relating to health and finances dominate UK long-term concerns. Financial security in old-age and accessing good-quality healthcare are the most frequently identified long-term concerns for UK respondents (Figure 2.4): just over three‑quarters (76%) of UK respondents report feeling at least “somewhat” concerned about not being financially secure in old-age, and an almost identical number feel similarly about accessing good-quality healthcare. The next most commonly-cited long-term concern – “Not being as well-off and financially secure as your parents and/or that you had hoped to be” (70%) – also touches on issues relating to financial health and economic security.
Percentage of respondents who report being somewhat or very concerned by each risk over the next ten years, 18‑ to 64‑year‑olds, the United Kingdom, G7 average and OECD RTM‑27 average, 2022
Note: G7 refers to the unweighted average across the six available members of the G7 group of major economies. See Box 2.1 for question wording.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter Survey 2022, https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html.
The fallout from the COVID‑19 crisis, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and rising prices more generally meant that worries about economic security stretched wide when Risks That Matter went into the field in 2022 (OECD, 2023[1]), and few places more so than the United Kingdom. Results from Risks That Matter suggest that UK RTM respondents were more likely than respondents in most other countries to report that their household finances had deteriorated over the past year: as many as 50% of UK respondents reported that their finances were either “worse” or “much worse” than 12 months previous, compared to an average of just over 40% (OECD, 2023[1]). Similarly, when asked to think about prospects for their household finances and social and economic well-being over the next year or two, UK respondents reported stronger concerns than respondents in most other covered OECD countries: 82% of UK respondents reported feeling at least “somewhat” concerned about their prospects over the next couple of years, above the OECD RTM average of 75% (OECD, 2023[1]).
These strong economic security concerns are mirrored in other measures of UK economy- and finance‑related sentiment from around the same time. For example, the UK’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) collapsed through the second half of 2021 and first three‑quarters of 2022, falling to its lowest level ever recorded in September 2022 (Figure 2.5). The forward-looking components of the index fell particularly sharply: echoing results from OECD Risks That Matter, UK residents were especially pessimistic about how both their own finances and the general economic situation would develop over the following 12 months (GfK, 2022[7]). Many other OECD countries also saw consumer confidence fall around the same time, but UK confidence fell faster and further than almost anywhere else. Indeed, relative to their own long-term averages, only three OECD countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) have ever seen consumer confidence fall lower than the United Kingdom in September 2022 (OECD, 2023[8]).
Consumer Confidence Index, normalised (= 100) and seasonally adjusted, the United Kingdom, OECD total and other OECD RTM countries, January 2020 – December 2023
Note: The Consumer Confidence Index is based on data from national consumer opinion surveys and is built on responses to four questions: assessment of financial situation over the last 12 months; expected financial position over the next 12 months; expected general economic situation over the next 12 months; and expected major purchases over the next 12 months. The index is seasonally adjusted and normalised around the long-term average (100). Values above 100 represent a more‑optimistic-than-average attitude towards the economy, and less than 100 a more‑pessimistic-than-average attitude. “Other OECD RTM countries” refers to the 26 other OECD countries covered by OECD Risks That Matter 2022.
Source: OECD (2023), Main Economic Indicators, Volume 2023 Issue 12, https://doi.org/10.1787/ded67b87-en.
Domestic analysis has pointed to heavy inflation and the associated decline in real household income as central to this collapse in confidence (NIESR, 2022[9]; IFS, 2022[10]; Bank of England, 2023[11]). Rapidly rising prices erode confidence and optimism and, like many OECD countries, the United Kingdom experienced strong inflation through late‑2021 and 2022. Rising energy prices are likely to have been particularly important (Bank of England, 2023[11]). UK energy structures mean that the United Kingdom is comparatively exposed to energy price shocks, especially gas price shocks (Bank of England, 2023[11]; Ari and Mulas-Granados, 2023[12]), and UK prices surged in the months following Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. However, inflation is unlikely to have been the only factor contributing to the UK’s strong concerns. From a comparative perspective, the United Kingdom was not the only OECD country to experience heavy inflation through 2022 (OECD, 2024[13]), but few others saw concern rise as high.
The good news for the United Kingdom is that pessimism about finances and the economy has eased somewhat in more recent months. Slowing inflation and government efforts to tackle the rising cost of living, such as the Energy Price Guarantee, a mandated limit on the consumer price of gas, helped the UK CCI recover from its record low in September 2022, and by the end of 2023 UK confidence returned to a level similar to the OECD total (Figure 2.5). Data from YouGov point to a similar recovery in optimism (YouGov, 2024[14]; YouGov, 2024[15]). Still, some caution is needed: the UK CCI continues to sit below its long-term average, and several commentators have warned that confidence remains fragile (Bloomberg, 2024[16]; British Chambers of Commerce, 2024[17]).
UK concerns strengthen after adjusting for country differences in population composition
Cross-country comparisons are not always made on a like‑for-like basis. OECD Risks That Matter is built on samples designed to represent country populations as a whole, but the composition of these populations can differ substantially. Some OECD countries have populations that are older than others, for instance. Some have populations with greater shares of parents, or greater shares of highly educated people. As shown later on in this chapter, these kinds of individual characteristics are often important in shaping people’s perceptions of risk. When aggregated, differences in their distribution can help explain why some OECD countries are, on average, less positive or more concerned about social and economic risks than others.
Results from this report’s multilevel models point towards two population factors as being particularly important for explaining levels of perceived risk. One is women’s share of the population, which is consistently associated with concern about social risk.1 Net concern tends to be higher in countries where women make up a larger share of the population, and lower in countries with greater shares of men (Figure 2.6, Panel A; r = 0.47; A2.2.1, and A2.3.1). As touched on later on, this echoes a wider literature that finds women are generally less optimistic than men (Dawson, 2023[18]). The second is the share of the population out of work: in line with intuition, countries that have a larger share of the population outside paid work also report stronger average concerns around both short-term (Figure 2.6, Panel B; r = 0.76; Online Annex Table A2.2.1) and long-term social risks (Online Annex Table A2.3.1).
Average net concern across ten short-term social and economic risks, percentage of the working-age population that are women, and percentage of the working-age population not in paid work
Note: Average net concern is based on a scale measuring average concern across a series of ten specified short-term social and economic risks. The underlying responses are scaled as follows: “Not at all concerned” (‑100), “Not so concerned” (‑33.333), “Somewhat concerned” (33.333) and “Very concerned” (100). “Percentage of the working-age population not in paid work” is derived from answers to the question “Did you do any paid work in the last week?”. See Box 2.1 for question wording and Annex A for more detail on scale construction. For readability, data labels used for selected countries only.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter survey 2022, https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html.
Adjusting estimates for differences in population composition can provide a more even basis for comparison. By “correcting” for the known effects of, for instance, differences in the age distribution or in women’s share of the population, adjusted estimates can help isolate differences between countries in “core” concern and perceived risk.
Figure 2.7 shows average net concern about short-term social risks before and after adjusting for between-country differences in demographic (sex, age, and parenthood) and basic socio‑economic characteristics (educational attainment, employment status, and self-reported benefit receipt). The adjusted estimates in this instance are the level of net concern predicted for each country by this report’s multilevel models in the hypothetical scenario that population composition is identical (at the cross-country average) for all countries. For some countries, such as Italy, Mexico, and Türkiye, adjusting for population composition substantially reduces estimated net concern. These countries have population characteristics, including a higher-than-average share of the population out of work, that “inflate” expressed concern about social and economic risks. For others, like the Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland, population composition lends itself to a lower level of net concern; concern in these countries would be much higher if their populations looked more like the cross-country average.
For the United Kingdom, adjusting for population composition increases the comparative strength of expressed concern and moves the country further from many of its peers (Figure 2.7). Aspects of the UK population, especially its lower-than-average share of the population out of work, help keep average concerns down, and adjusting for this increases estimated net concern in the United Kingdom to levels slightly higher than the raw estimates (Figure 2.7, Panels A and B). Coupled with downward adjustments to estimates for countries with comparatively high levels of net concern (e.g. Italy, Türkiye), this moves the United Kingdom “up” the rankings towards the OECD’s most concerned countries. Overall, when the effects of population composition are taken out, UK respondents report the seventh highest level of concern about long-term social and economic risks (Figure 2.7, Panel A) and the fourth highest about short-term risks, behind only Greece, Chile, and Spain (Figure 2.7, Panel B).
Average net concern across ten short-term and ten long-term social and economic risks, before and after adjusting for population composition, 18‑ to 64‑year‑olds, 2022
Note: Estimates based on predictions from multilevel mixed-effects linear regression models (Online Annex Tables A2.2.1 and A2.3.1, Model 4). Average net concern based on a scale measuring average concern across a series of ten specified short-term social and economic risks. The underlying responses are scaled as follows: “Not at all concerned” (‑100), “Not so concerned” (‑33.333), “Somewhat concerned” (33.333) and “Very concerned” (100). See Box 2.1 for question wording and Annex A for more detail on data and methods. Adjusted estimates account for between-country differences in demographic- (sex, age, and parenthood) and basic socio‑economic characteristics (educational attainment, employment status, and self-reported benefit receipt). GDP per capita is controlled for but not included in the adjusted estimates. Estimates exclude respondents with three or fewer valid responses.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter survey 2022, https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html.
Individual characteristics shape risk perceptions. As documented in past OECD Risks That Matter reports (OECD, 2019[19]; OECD, 2021[20]; OECD, 2023[1]), different social groups have different worries and concerns, with perceived risks varying in both type and intensity. Younger respondents are often more concerned about their financial security, for instance, and older respondents about access to healthcare (OECD, 2023[1]). Women often report stronger concerns than men, especially around finances and making ends meet. Lower-income respondents worry more about affordable housing, and higher-income respondents about access to quality child- and elder care services (OECD, 2019[19]).
Group differences in the United Kingdom are largely (but not always) similar to those seen in other OECD countries. Figure 2.8 summarises results from OECD RTM-wide and UK-specific linear models predicting within-country average concern about short-term (Panel A) and long-term (Panel B) social and economic risks. Full results are available in Online Annex Tables A2.2.2 and A2.3.2. In the United Kingdom, as elsewhere, being a woman is associated with stronger concerns about social risks, especially long-term concerns. This echoes findings from psychology that show women are consistently less optimistic and more risk averse than men (Dawson, 2023[18]), as well as reflecting women’s disadvantaged position in society generally (OECD, 2023[1]). Parent status shares a similar (if usually smaller) positive association with expressed (short-term) concern. Unsurprisingly, income is negatively associated with perceived risk, with concern falling as income rises.
Estimated point change in average net concern about short- and long-term social and economic risks per unit change in each independent variable, 18‑ to 64‑year‑olds, the United Kingdom and OECD RTM-wide average, 2022
Note: Summary of results from multilevel mixed effect linear models (OECD RTM: Online Annex Tables A2.2.1 and A2.3.1, Model 4) and country-specific linear regression models (GBR: Online Annex Tables A2.2.2 and A2.3.2, Model 4). Error bars set at the 95% confidence interval. The dependent variable in Panel A is average net concern across ten short-term social and economic risks, and in Panel B average net concern across ten long-term social and economic risks. See Box 2.1 for question wording and Annex A for data and methods.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter Survey 2022, https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html.
However, there are areas where the United Kingdom differs from the OECD RTM sample as a whole. Two stand out. The first is that in the United Kingdom, as well as in some other (English-speaking) countries, both short and long-term concerns seem to decrease (rather than increase) with age (Figure 2.9). For example, focusing on long-term risks, in the United Kingdom, as also in Canada and the United States, each ten‑year increase in age is associated with about a 2‑point decrease in average net concern about long-term social risks, all else equal, compared to 1.6‑point increase across the OECD RTM sample as a whole. In these English-speaking countries, it is younger rather than older respondents who are most concerned about their futures.
Estimated point change in average net concern about long-term social and economic risks per ten‑year increase in age, 18‑ to 64‑year‑olds, 2022
Note: Summary of results from multilevel mixed effect linear models (RTM‑27: Online Annex Table A2.3.1, Model 4) and country-specific linear regression models (Online Annex Table A2.3.2, Model 4). The dependent variable is a scale measuring average concern about a series of ten specified long-term social and economic risks. The underlying responses are weighted as follows: “Not at all concerned” (‑100), “Not so concerned” (‑33.333), “Somewhat concerned” (33.333) and “Very concerned” (100). Estimates are not adjusted for respondents with fully missing data. See Box 2.1 for question wording and Annex A for more detail on data and methods.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter Survey 2022, https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html.
The second is that concerns about social risks seem to increase more strongly with benefit receipt in the United Kingdom than in most other countries. Perhaps unsurprisingly given that benefits are often targeted at more vulnerable sections of society, results from this report’s regression models suggest that current benefit recipients (those who report having received at least one public cash benefit in the past 12 months) express stronger short- and long-term concerns than non-recipients, even after controlling for income and other demographic and socio‑economic factors (Figure 2.8). In the United Kingdom, receipt of a public cash benefit is associated with a 20‑point increase in concern about short-term social risks, all else equal, compared to a 5‑point increase on average across OECD RTM countries (Figure 2.8; Online Annex Tables A2.2.2 and A23.2, Model 4). Only in the United States (23 points) does benefit receipt share a stronger association with perceived risk. This likely reflects the targeted nature of public benefits in these two countries.
Housing is high on the agenda in the United Kingdom. By several measures, the United Kingdom has a comparatively expensive housing market, especially for renters. Almost a quarter (23%) of UK private renters are “overburdened” on their housing costs, meaning they are spending more than 40% of disposable income on their housing costs, compared to an OECD average of 14% (OECD, 2022[21]). Among low-income private renters, the overburden rate rises to more than half (53%). Like many OECD countries, house prices have risen faster than household income in recent decades, and housing’s share of overall consumption expenditure (22%) is well above the OECD average (18%) (OECD, 2023[22]). Domestically, it has become common to talk of a housing “crisis”.
In this context, it is not surprising that accessing affordable housing is a key concern for many UK respondents, particularly younger respondents. In 2022, 65% of 18‑ to 29‑year‑old UK respondents reported feeling at least “somewhat” concerned about their ability to find or maintain adequate housing over the following year or two, compared to an OECD RTM average of 61% (OECD, 2023[1]). Only Chile, Greece, Italy, Mexico, Portugal, and Spain reported higher levels of concern about housing among young respondents. Notably, as in several other OECD countries, worries around housing were much lower among older UK respondents: 32% of 50‑ to 64‑year‑old respondents reported feeling at least “somewhat” concerned about housing, 33 percentage points lower than among 18‑ to 29‑year‑olds. Only Canada, Italy, Ireland and the United States reported larger gaps in concern across age groups.
Percentage of respondents reporting that they are somewhat concerned or very concerned about not being able to find/maintain adequate housing, by age group, 18‑ to 64‑year‑olds, 2022
Note: See Box 2.1 for question wording.
Source: (OECD, 2023[1]), Main Findings from the 2022 OECD Risks that Matter Survey, https://doi.org/10.1787/70aea928-en.
This age gap in concern about housing mirrors a growing generational divide in housing tenure in the United Kingdom. Young UK adults today are far less likely to be homeowners than older generations were at the same age, and are much more likely to be found renting or living with parents (Broome et al., 2023[23]). Data from the Resolution Foundation show that the share of 19‑ to 29‑year‑old-headed households who are homeowners more than halved between 1989 and 2013, from 23% to 8% (Broome et al., 2023[23]). At the same time, homeownership is high and rising among older age groups. The 2021 UK Population and Housing Census shows that well over half (59%) of 60‑ to 69‑year‑olds now own their own properties outright, rising to three‑quarters (75%) among 70‑ to 79‑year‑olds (ONS, 2023[24]).
What factors drive cross-national differences in perceived risk and concern, and what could the United Kingdom do, if anything, to bring its concerns closer to those expressed by respondents in the OECD’s best performers? There are limits on the extent to which Risks That Matter can isolate country-level drivers of perceived risk, in part because the number of countries covered (27) restricts analysts’ ability to separate the effects of different possible influences (see Annex A). Nonetheless, country comparison points to several factors that may help explain why concerns might be different in the United Kingdom than in some other OECD countries. This chapter has already noted that aspects of population composition can influence levels of concern, including women’s share of the population and the share of the population of work (Online Annex Tables A2.2.1 and A2.3.1). Economic development and the breadth and depth of social protection are two further potential factors.
Economic development is one factor potentially contributing to the UK’s comparatively moderate concerns
Echoing well-known links between average income and outcomes such as happiness and well-being (Helliwell, Layard and Sachs, 2012[25]; Clark, 2018[26]), results from Risks That Matter suggest that higher (average) incomes may help at least some people feel more secure and less vulnerable to social risks. As noted earlier in this chapter, respondents in some of the OECD’s wealthier economies like Norway and Switzerland tend to express fewer concerns about social and economic risks than respondents in many of the OECD’s less wealthy economies (Figure 2.1 and Figure 2.3). More generally, even after controlling for population composition, respondents in countries with higher GDP per capita tend to express weaker concerns about both short-term (Figure 2.11, Panel A; r = ‑0.67; Online Annex Table A2.2.1, Model 4) and long-term social and economic risks (Figure 2.11, Panel B; r = ‑0.66, or r = ‑0.72; Online Annex Table A2.3.1, Model 4), although it should be noted that associations weaken once social expenditure (another potential driver) is taken into account (Box 2.4). Associations are similar for concerns about most specific risks, like becoming ill or disabled, losing a job, accessing adequate housing, accessing education and childcare, and accessing long-term care (Online Annex Tables A2.2a.1. A2.2b.1, A2.2c.1, A2.2e.1, and A2.2f.1).
The United Kingdom, for its part, is a mid-range performer on GDP per capita. Sluggish growth over the decade and a half since the financial crisis means that UK GDP per capita (USD (2015) 45 000 in 2022) is now 10% lower than in Germany (USD (2015) 50 000), and more than 30% lower than in leading countries like Norway (USD (2015) 65 000), Switzerland (USD (2015) 70 000), and the United States (USD (2015) 64 000). In this light, it is not surprising that expressed concern is higher in the United Kingdom than in several other (wealthier) OECD countries.
Log GDP per capita (USD 2015 PPP), (adjusted) average net concern about short-term social and economic risks, and (adjusted) average net concern about long-term social and economic risks
Note: Estimates based on predictions from multilevel mixed-effects linear regression models (Online Annex Tables A2.2.1 and A2.3.1, Model 4). Average net concern is derived from scales measuring average concern about a series of ten specified short-term and ten long-term social and economic risks. The underlying responses are scaled as follows: “Not at all concerned” (‑100), “Not so concerned” (‑33.333), “Somewhat concerned” (33.333) and “Very concerned” (100). Adjusted estimates account for between-country differences in demographic composition (sex, age, and parenthood) and basic socio‑economic characteristics (educational attainment, employment status, and self-reported benefit receipt). GDP per capita is controlled for but not included in the adjusted estimates. Data on GDP per capita refer to 2022. For readability, data labels used for selected countries only. See Box 2.1 for question wording and Annex A for more detail on data and methods.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter Survey 2022, https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html, and OECD National Accounts, www.oecd.org/sdd/na/.
People in countries with expansive social protection systems express fewer concerns about social and economic risks
An important goal of social protection is to help people feel secure about their futures and as with GDP per capita, evidence from Risks That Matter suggests that people report fewer concerns when they live in countries that operate more expansive social protection systems. For example, Denmark and Norway are countries with extensive public social protection (Chapter 1) and have respondents who express some of the fewest concerns about both short- and long-term social risks (see Figure 2.1 and Figure 2.3). The Netherlands and Switzerland, countries with extensive mandatory private social spending (OECD, 2023[27]), are also consistently strong performers. More generally, even after adjusting for population composition, respondents express fewer concerns about short- and long-term risks when they live in countries that spend more on social issues (Figure 2.12; r = ‑0.65 and r = ‑0.66; Online Annex Tables A2.2.1 and A2.3.1, Model 12), although associations again weaken after controlling for GDP per capita (see Box 2.4). Concerns about some specific risks can also be linked to social policies. For example, respondents tend to be less concerned about job loss when they live in countries that spend more on social policies generally and unemployment supports specifically (Online Annex Tables A2.2b.1 and A2.3d.1, Models 11 and 20). Worries about finding and maintaining housing are negatively associated with policy efforts to reduce poverty and inequality, as well as with the targeting of cash benefits towards low-income groups (Online Annex Tables A2.2c.1 and A2.3f.1, Models 15 and 17).
As discussed in Chapter 1, the United Kingdom operates a mid-sized market-based social protection system. UK social spending (USD (2015) 8 900 per person in 2019) is close to the OECD average (USD 9 900 per person) but well below the amounts spent in countries like Denmark (USD 16 200 per person), Norway (USD 16 400 per person) and Switzerland (USD 18 400 per person). All else equal, respondents in the United Kingdom might be expected to report stronger concerns than respondents in countries with more expansive social protection systems.
Public and mandatory private social expenditure per head (USD 2015 PPP), (adjusted) average net concern about short-term social and economic risks, and (adjusted) average net concern about long-term social and economic risks
Note: Estimates based on predictions from multilevel mixed-effects linear regression models (Online Annex Tables A2.2.1 and A2.3.1, Model 12). Average net concern is derived from scales measuring average concern about a series of ten specified short-term (long-term) social and economic risks. The underlying responses are scaled as follows: “Not at all concerned” (‑100), “Not so concerned” (‑33.333), “Somewhat concerned” (33.333) and “Very concerned” (100). Adjusted estimates account for between-country differences in demographic composition (sex, age, and parenthood) and basic socio‑economic characteristics (educational attainment, employment status, and self-reported benefit receipt). Social expenditure is controlled for but not included in the adjusted estimates. Data on social expenditure refer to 2019. For readability, data labels used for selected countries only. See Box 2.1 for question wording and Annex A for more detail on data and methods.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter Survey 2022, https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html, and the OECD Social Expenditure Database, https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/social-expenditure-database-socx.html.
This section has highlighted GDP per capita and social spending as factors that potentially influence concern about social risks, but separating and isolating the effects of the two is not as straightforward as might be hoped. (Log) GDP per capita and (public and mandatory private) social expenditure are themselves strongly correlated (r = 0.77), with wealthier OECD countries often operating more extensive social protection systems. While short of what is typically considered multicollinear, the strength of this correlation increases the difficulty of disentangling the individual effects of each, especially with a limited sample size (27). Indeed, when GDP per capita and social expenditure are entered into the same regression model, associations on both soften somewhat and move out of statistical significance (Online Annex Tables A2.2.1 and A2.3.1, Model 12).
Further work is needed to establish the independence of these two associations. It is possible that this is a case of confounding, with the apparent link between GDP per capita and perceived risk actually driven by social spending, or vice versa. However, both factors remain at least moderately correlated with concern about social risks even after controlling for the other (Figure 2.13; r = ‑0.46 and ‑0.45, respectively), and there are theoretical reasons to believe that both can help people feel more secure in the face of social risks. Higher (average) incomes can provide many (if not always all) people with private means for mitigating and insuring against risk, for instance, while more expansive social protection provides a strong social safety net.
GDP per capita (USD 2015 PPP), public and mandatory private social expenditure per head (USD 2015 PPP), and (adjusted) average net concern about long-term social and economic risks, after adjusting for population composition and social expenditure (GDP per capita)
Note: Estimates based on predictions from multilevel mixed-effects linear regression models (Online Annex Table A2.3.1, Model 11). Average net concern is derived from scales measuring average concern about a series of ten short-term and ten long-term social and economic risks. The underlying responses are scaled as follows: “Not at all concerned” (‑100), “Not so concerned” (‑33.333), “Somewhat concerned” (33.333) and “Very concerned” (100). Estimates in Panel A adjust for between-country differences in demographic composition (sex, age, and parenthood) and basic socio‑economic characteristics (educational attainment, employment status, and self-reported benefit receipt) plus public and mandatory private social expenditure per head. Estimates in Panel B adjust for between-country differences in demographic composition and basic socio‑economic characteristics plus GDP per capita. GDP per capita (social expenditure) is controlled for but not included in the adjusted estimates in Panel A (B). Data on GDP per capita refer to 2022, and social expenditure to 2019. For readability, data labels used for selected countries only. See Box 2.1 for question wording and Annex A for more detail on data and methods.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter Survey 2022, https://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/oecd-risks-that-matter-rtm-survey.html; OECD National Accounts, www.oecd.org/sdd/na/, and the OECD Social Expenditure Database, https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/social-expenditure-database-socx.html.
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← 1. The data on women’s share of the population used in Figure 2.6 are derived from the Risks That Matter microdata, which is itself determined by the statistics used for the survey’s sampling quotas and weighting calculations. According to the latest numbers available from the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics, women’s share of the working-age (18‑ to 64‑year‑old) population stood at 50.8% in mid‑2022. This is slightly higher than the share derived from the RTM microdata (50.0%), suggesting that RTM slightly underestimates women’s share of the UK population and underrepresents women in its results.