The SAA exercises reviewed provide a good overview of different design features present in SAA exercises. SAA exercises use a diversity of methods and information sources and offer information for a variety of time horizons and scopes. The basic characteristics of the exercises included in the analysis are briefly described below:
The BIBB-IAB Qualification and Occupational Fields Projections (Germany) relies on a quantitative macro‑econometric model to produce projections on occupation needs and qualification levels for up to 20 years into the future. This forecasting exercise is a collaborative effort between the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) and is updated every 2 years. While the primary focus (Maier, 2017[18]) is on national trends, regional breakdowns are also available to inform more localised decision making.
The Education and Labour Market Project (POA, the Netherlands) provides medium-term forecasts for the labour market prospects of about 100 educational programmes and occupations, 21 sectors and 35 regions. POA relies on quantitative methods and uses a variety of data and econometric models to forecast labour demand and supply. The forecasts are updated every other year and cover a period of 6 years. The analysis is carried out by the ROA, a research institute of the Maastricht University School of Business and Economics, and is funded by the Netherlands Initiative for Education Research. The POA projections are used as a basis for other SAA exercises in the Netherlands.
The Excelsior Information System (Italy) provides information on short-term (3 months) recruitment needs by occupation obtained from a survey of employers. It is implemented monthly by Unicamere, a union of Chambers, in collaboration with the Ministry of Labor and Social Policies. In addition, the Excelsior Information System provides 5‑year forecasts of occupational needs estimated using quantitative analysis.
The Future Skills Program (Canada) addresses critical gaps in skills development ecosystem amid a rapid labour market transformation. By anticipating future labour market trends and informing Federal, Provincial and Territorial policy and programme responses, the Future Skills programme equips Canada’s workforce with the skills needed to remain agile, resilient, and competitive in today’s rapidly changing labour market. The Future Skills Program also includes a focus on underrepresented groups so everyone can succeed.
The Graduate Career Tracking System (Hungary) provides information on the employability and career paths of graduates from different higher education programmes. The system integrates data from several sources, including an annual graduate employability survey and administrative information, and is updated annually. It is overseen by the Educational Authority of Hungary, with analyses conducted by the Department of Higher Education Analysis.
The IAB Skills Compass (Germany) is a skill needs assessment tool that extracts information from job postings published in the Federal Employment Agency (BA) job board JOBBÖRSE to identify emerging skill needs. It was developed by the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs in collaboration with the Institute for Employment Research and it offers insights at both the national and federal state levels. This exercise complements others carried out in Germany, such as the BIBB-IAB Qualification and Occupational Fields Projections, described above. The primary goal of the Skills Compass is to support local employment agencies by supplying up-to-date information on skill demand trends.
The JobBarometer (Austria) is an information system implemented by the Austrian Public Employment Service (AMS) that tracks occupational and skills trends. The exercise relies primarily on job vacancy information that is supplemented by labour market, economic and demographic information. The analysis is conducted annually and delivers mid-term (3‑year) forecasting results on occupation and skill needs at both national and regional levels.
Jobs and Skills Australia (JSA, Australia) provides strategic advice to the Australian Government on addressing the current, emerging and future labour market needs, including workforce skills and training requirements. It plays a key role in producing the annual Skills Priority List, and annual list of occupations experiencing current or upcoming shortages, along with five‑and ten‑year employment projections by industry, occupation, and skill level. Additionally, JSA is developing a new national skills taxonomy in collaboration with industry, to help Australia understand and keep pace with rapidly changing skill needs. The work builds on lessons learned from the Australian Skills Classification (ASC), which aimed to increase understanding and recognition of skills across occupations, sectors and contexts. JSA’s analysis of skills shortages also informs Australia’s Skilled Migration programme priorities (OECD, 2023[1]).
The Skills and Labour Platform (Italy) is a joint initiative of AlmaLaurea, INAPP, Unioncamere and the OECD that provides insights into the professional needs of Italian companies, the skills required for various occupations, and the university education paths available across the country to enter those occupations. The platform presents future labour market needs at the national and regional scope. The analysis is based on quantitative methods and relies on three key data sources: the Excelsior Employment and Training Information System, described above, which provides data on the future professional needs of Italian companies, the Sample Survey of Professions (Indagine Campionaria sulle Professioni, ICP) by INAPP, an Italian skills taxonomy by occupation, and graduate employability surveys implemented by AlmaLaurea.
The Labour Market Platform (Slovenia) is an integrated system that combines quantitative and qualitative inputs to forecast labour market needs at both national and regional levels. It relies on three tools, the Employment Forecast Survey, the Occupational Barometer, and a long-term study, to produce short-term (up to 1 year), mid-term (3‑5 years), and long-term (up to 15 years) projections of occupation and skill needs. Governed by the Ministry of Labour, Family, Social Affairs, and Equal Opportunities, the platform is developed in partnership with the Employment Service of Slovenia. Currently in its development phase, the implementation of the SAA exercise is expected to continue until 2028.
Occupations 2030 (France) is a labour market forecasting exercise that has been in place since 1990. It is governed by France Stratégie, a policy advisory body under the Prime Minister’s Office, and Dares, the statistical division of the Ministry of Labour, in collaboration with several public institutions. The forecast provides a quantitative outlook on occupational trends up to 2030, analysing job creation, recruitment needs, and potential skills mismatches. The model also considers broader economic and labour market shifts, including sectoral transformations and evolving workforce demands (OECD, 2023[1]).
OSKA (Estonia) relies on quantitative and qualitative data and methodologies to annually forecast occupation needs for the next 10 years. The system was established in 2015 to support strategic workforce planning and education policy and relies on three instruments: cross-sectoral forecasts, sectoral studies and thematic studies. It operates under the oversight of the OSKA Co‑ordination Council, and the analyses are conducted by the Estonian Qualifications Authority (Kutsekoda).
The SEPE Occupations Observatory (Spain) assesses current skill needs in growing occupations and in specific economic sectors to inform the provision of Active Labour Market Policies (ALMPs) and the need to update Spanish occupational standards. It relies mostly on qualitative methods, interviews with industry experts, supplemented by quantitative analysis, analysis of labour market statistics and employer surveys. Results cover national and regional (Autonomous Communities) levels.
Skills Anticipation Forum (OEF, Finland) is a joint foresight expert body of the Ministry of Education and Culture and the Finnish National Agency for Education whose task is to promote dialogue between education and the world of work. It produces, analyses and disseminates nationwide foresight information on future skills and labour needs and, based on these, proposes development needs for education. The OEF consists of a steering group and nine foresight groups representing different sectors.
Skills Demand for the Future Economy (Singapore) relies on quantitative analysis of job vacancies to forecast skill needs and priority skills. The unit of measurement is skills, and the analysis is conducted annually, with forecasts offering a short-term (two‑year) outlook. The exercise is implemented by SkillsFuture Singapore, which operates under the oversight of the Ministry of Education.
SOLAS Skills and Labour Market Research Unit (Ireland) is the main labour market observatory monitoring, analysing and reporting on current skills needs and labour market trends in Ireland. The analysis is based on quantitative analysis of microdata from the Labour Market Survey, job vacancies from a national jobs’ portal and Ireland’s data from the CEDEFOP skills intelligence tools, and responses to a survey on the difficulty to fill vacancies. The purpose of the analysis is to inform the deliberations of policymakers and those responsible for managing and improving skills supply.
The Trends and Forecasts study (Sweden) provides long-term projections (15‑20 years) on workforce supply and demand by education field, covering about 100 education fields. Conducted at the national level, the study relies on quantitative analysis of administrative information to project future labour demand and supply. Results are published at the national level every three years, but some regional forecasts have been produced in the latest editions.