SAA can inform a broad range of policy areas, including policies for formal education and adult training, employment, career guidance, innovation and migration policy. This chapter summarises the ways in which information on existing, emerging and future skills needs can inform decisions of policymakers, education providers and learners, and reflects on the challenges that limit effective use of SAA information in higher education policy and practice.
Anticipating Skill Needs and Adapting Higher Education
From Insight to Alignment
Abstract
Previous OECD analysis highlights how SAA can inform a broad range of policy areas, including policies for formal education and adult training, employment, career guidance, innovation and migration policy (OECD, 2023[1]). Results of SAA exercises are particularly valuable to several stakeholders within education and training systems, where SAA data and information can support the development or updating of education and training programmes. SAA data can also help policymakers to make decisions about increasing or reducing capacity of publicly supported education programmes and inform guidance and information strategies for prospective learners .
This chapter summarises the ways in which information on existing, emerging and future skills needs can inform decisions of policymakers, education providers and learners, and reflects on the challenges that limit effective use of SAA information in higher education policy and practice. It draws on examples of current and emerging practice in OECD countries, focusing particularly on the uses made of the SAA exercises reviewed for this report.
4.1.1. Identifying use cases
This process of identifying use cases and users should begin at the design stage of the SAA exercise (see Chapter 1). Many of the reviewed SAA exercises provided indications or statements of their intended uses on their websites or in reports. One of the most common stated uses was the provision of guidance for learners but other frequent intended uses are updating of education curricula and programmes and informing public policy. The reviewed exercises appeared less frequently targeted towards informing workforce planning by companies (Table 4.1).
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
4.1.2. Adapting policy approaches to the specific case of higher education
There is a growing urgency among countries to promote the responsiveness to higher education provision to emerging skills needs, especially as SAA exercises in many countries indicate that a large proportion of future needs will lie in emerging green and digital industries and high-skilled occupations, which overwhelmingly require the advanced skills provided through higher education (OECD, 2024[4]).
When it comes to VET provision many countries have developed strong connections between SAA frameworks and policies that seek to align VET to skills demand. This includes the SANQ system in Portugal, which has implemented a methodology for grading the labour market relevance of VET programmes, and a linked policy framework to update them where needed, informed by SAA data. However, policy approaches responding to SAA information that work successfully in VET systems are likely to require some adaptations to work in a higher education policy environment. In Australia, for example, national analysis has highlighted key differences between VET and higher education providers that affect their respective abilities to integrate into skills systems. Firstly, VET programmes are competency-based, skills-focused and designed to be consistent across providers, while higher education curricula tend to be more academic and knowledge-oriented, with HEIs autonomously and individually developing programmes. Secondly, higher education and VET have different regulatory frameworks and public funding mechanisms. Finally, while VET providers focus on teaching, HEIs are fewer, larger and more complex organisations carrying out a diverse range of connected activities (teaching, research, innovation, technology transfer, societal engagement) (Australian Government, 2023[5]).
While distinctions between VET and higher education have decreased over time with the development of professionally-oriented tertiary education programmes, these distinctions highlight the need for a targeted policy approach to improving responsiveness of HEIs to the information provided through SAA initiatives (OECD, 2022[6]). Policy approaches for higher education are more likely to be indirect, focusing on designing incentives for institutions and learners to focus on education opportunities that can best address skills needs. Policy levers may be regulatory, financial, informational and may target prospective learners, higher education providers or both.
4.1.3. Regulatory pathways to promoting response to SAA in higher education systems
Occupational standards are documents that describe the knowledge, skills and abilities an individual needs to be competent for a job. They provide a reference point for HEIs when specifying the likely learning outcomes and career perspectives for their programmes. They are typically developed and validated with input by industry experts and registered and maintained by public bodies or agencies. Occupational standards require regular updates to ensure that they remain relevant to the evolving nature of work and tasks required in the job. SAA exercises are increasingly helping to inform the development and updating of these standards (OECD, 2023[1]).
Governments are increasingly requiring higher education programmes to specify learning outcomes that align with occupational standards, either directly or through qualification frameworks. For example, Croatia updated its legal framework for higher education and quality assurance in 2022 and 2023, requiring HEIs, when developing new programmes, to clearly define learning outcomes that correspond to occupational standards. This regulatory approach can incentivise higher education programmes to become more responsive to information from SAA exercises with occupational standards acting as a mediating reference point. Examples from OECD countries (including Estonia – see Box 4.1) show that aligning occupation and qualification standards may work particularly well as an approach for professionally-oriented education and training programmes, especially with the involvement of a central coordinating body to help ensure that sector- or occupation-specific SAA results are integrated into education provision.
Source: Author’s elaboration.
In Estonia, a single body is responsible for developing occupational standards, qualifications and assessments of occupational competence, for all levels of publicly funded education and training. The Estonian qualifications authority (Kutsekoda) is co-managed by ministries (Education, Social Affairs and Economy), and employer and employee organisations, including trade unions. Kutsekoda, as overall owner of the OSKA system, ensures that its results are integrated into education provision. Kutsekoda coordinates 14 Occupational Qualifications Councils (OQCs) in developing sector-specific standards, issuing licenses, and awarding qualifications. Qualifications, created by experts from employer groups or professional associations, cover ISCED levels 2-7 and are reviewed every 4 to 5 years.
Source: Kutsekoda (n.d.[7]), Occupational qualification standards, https://www.kutsekoda.ee/en/occupational-qualification-standards/.
Another potential regulatory pathway for promoting response of the HEIs to SAA results is more direct, where public authorities establish and adjust mandatory quotas for state-funded study places, informed by SAA exercises. Links between SAA results and quotas for state-funded education and training places tend to be most developed in VET systems. In higher education, it is more common for state-mandated quotas to be established based on SAA results in certain fields where the state or professional bodies establishes common standards and curricula (e.g., in regulated professions such as health or teaching). For instance, the Advisory Committee on Medical Manpower Planning in the Netherlands recommends an entrant cohort size for each programme within health education institutions based on quantitative skills needs forecasts scenarios. Quotas for study places in teacher training degree programmes are also often routinely adjusted by education policymakers in response to projections of likely future teacher needs.
Although less common, some OECD countries, including Portugal, retain state control over the allocation of study quotas for a broader range of higher education programmes, not just those in regulated professions. These wider quotas tend to be implemented most commonly for state-funded places and for undergraduate education. Decisions on the allocation of these quotas are also often informed by SAA exercises. For example, in Denmark, where the vast majority of higher education is publicly funded, the government regularly places and adjusts caps on student intake in response to information on skills needs.
4.1.4. Financial incentives to improve higher education response to SAA information
As discussed above, the update of higher education curricula or the introduction of new programmes in response to SAA information can be triggered by regulatory requirements. Another common policy approach is to use public funding to design financial incentives that either subsidise the development of new education provision or subsidise wider participation by learners in areas of identified skills needs. As shown in Figure 4.2. , governments have several policy options when aiming to bridge supply and demand using financial incentives.
Source: Author’s elaboration.
One of the most impactful tools that governments can use to encourage response to SAA information is to directly subsidise the development of education programmes that respond to the needs highlighted by SAA exercises. An increasingly common practice is to fund education programmes that address a particular occupation, skillset or industry highlighted as a priority area in SAA exercises, especially in new or emerging fields or industries. For example, in Catalunya, the state and EU-funded “QuantumCAT” quantum technologies hub was established to meet skills and knowledge needs in quantum technologies. The hub partnered with the University of Barcelona to establish a new master’s degree in Quantum Science and Technology (University of Barcelona, 2024[8]).
Funding degree programmes that respond to emerging skills for specific skills promotes the development of the depth of knowledge and more advanced competencies needed in these innovative sectors but also presents drawbacks. Developing and accrediting a full degree programme is a complex and resource‑intensive process that needs to be undertaken within the overall strategic and regulatory context of each HEI. Even if information on emerging needs is quickly absorbed, mainstream higher education will always face a temporal lag in responding, given the time taken to develop a degree programme, attract students and supporting them through multiple‑year programmes to graduation. For this reason, many governments are exploring alternative ways to orient the higher education offer towards meeting skills needs. Short, targeted programmes such as micro-credentials, for example, offer possibilities for HEIs to respond in a more timely and targeted manner to skills needs (OECD, 2021[9]). In the EU, micro-credentials are becoming more widespread since the adoption of the 2022 Recommendation on a European approach to micro-credentials for lifelong learning and employability (European Union, 2022[10]).
Some governments have established much more comprehensive and ambitious policies to funding higher education programmes in emerging areas of skills needs than the targeted approach mentioned above. A notable example is the Human Capital Initiative (HCI) in Ireland, which funds a multi-pillar approach to support new programme development in HEIs that can help to ensure that graduates curricula are future proofed with relevant skills (Box 4.2).
The HCI in Ireland is a EUR 300m, five‑year project aimed at enhancing higher education capacity in skills-focussed programmes. The HCI’s objectives include increasing provision in areas of skills need, future‑proofing graduates with industry-relevant skills, promoting transversal skills across higher education, and encouraging reform and innovation in higher education provision. The HCI is divided into three pillars, each of which focusses on a different aspect of responding to skills demand, with funding awarded through competitive call models. Pillar 1 funds graduate conversion programmes, offering incentivised places for graduates to reskill in areas of skills shortage and emerging technologies. Pillar 2 offers additional undergraduate student places to address identified key skill needs in enterprise sectors, including but not limited to Science, Engineering, ICT, and Professional Construction qualifications. Pillar 3, focussing on Innovation and Agility, funds collaborative initiatives which includes more than 70 higher education sector partners and over 400 enterprise partners across the funded projects.
Source HEA (2024[11]), “What is the Human Capital Initiative?”, Higher Education Authority, Ireland, https://hea.ie/skills-engagement/what-is-human-capital-initiative-hci/
A final identified model for funding provision of higher education that responds to information from SAA exercises is to integrate the response directly under the umbrella of the SAA system. This is the model used by the Future Skills Program in Canada, which has two connected pillars. The Future Skills Centre is an independent innovation and applied research centre that identifies emerging trends, tests innovative approaches to skills assessment and development, and mobilises knowledge widely to adopt evidence generated into policies and programmes. As a national leader in inclusive workforce development, the Future Skills Centre has tested innovative approaches to skills and training, delivering scalable, evidence‑based solutions to inform policy and programme design while successfully connecting more than 100 000 Canadians to employment opportunities and supporting a skilled, adaptable workforce capable of meeting the demands of Canada’s evolving economy. The Future Skills Office is the policy lead for the Future Skills program, it is responsible for intra-government (i.e. federal partners) and inter-government relations (i.e. Federal, Provincial, Territorial) bilateral and multilateral relations. As part of this role, the Future Skills Office draws from publicly available information generated by the Future Skills Centre and provides targeted communications to support partners at different geographical levels to be aware of evidence generated by the Future Skills Centre that is relevant to their organisational priorities.
Financial incentives may also be offered to stimulate demand from learners for programmes in areas of identified skills needs. These might include, for example, tuition reductions or waivers in areas of identified skills shortage. A previous OECD survey on resourcing higher education systems showed that 10 out of 26 responding countries reported that at least some waivers from tuition fees were available for students studying in particular degree programmes (Golden, Troy and Weko, 2021[12]). Countries may also choose to provide state‑funded places on doctoral education programmes, aiming to promote the development of highly skilled talent needed for emerging industries. For example, in Hungary, the state‑funded Co‑operative Doctoral Programme was established to increase the number of highly qualified employees in research, development and innovation in fields with strong demand such as mathematics, natural science, engineering, IT and agricultural sciences. The programme has so far provided funding to over 700 doctoral students. Policies may also focus on growing enrolment on programmes that respond to skills need by attracting greater numbers of international students (Box 4.4).
Many countries have introduced policies to attract international students into their higher education systems, often targeting areas where there are domestic skill shortages. These initiatives aim to align international student recruitment with national labour market and economic priorities. They may be linked to wider migration or talent attraction policies or pursued as independent policies within higher education systems. The results of SAA exercises can help shape and refine these policies to ensure they meet current and emerging skills needs.
In 2024, for example. Scotland launched its first International Education Strategy, which focusses on attracting more academic staff and encouraging international students to stay in Scotland after graduation to work in key growth sectors. Initiatives include enhanced promotion of Scottish universities and colleges abroad, deeper engagement with global alumni networks, and the rollout of a Talent Attraction and Migration Service. This service is designed to provide tailored information and support for international students considering staying in Scotland, helping to fill critical skill gaps.
As another example, also in 2024, Denmark’s Ministry of Higher Education and Science proposed legislation that will allow HEIs to create an additional 400 places on English-taught courses for international students. The places will be focussed on business and vocational courses, science, technology, engineering and mathematics, and will be created in HEIs located outside of the major cities, responding to the areas where there is an identified high demand for labour. This new initiative is a partial reversal of a 2021 policy which reduced the number of English-taught degree programmes in Denmark.
Finally, while the provision of training vouchers for upskilling and reskilling primarily targets VET and adult education provision, governments have also experimented with initiatives that finance learners to take short courses provided by HEIs to update their skills in emerging areas. Many of these initiatives were established during the COVID‑19 pandemic period. For example, the Swedish Government implemented several initiatives to finance learners to take short upskilling and reskilling programmes during the pandemic period, in areas where there was an existing shortage of labour in the country (EUA, 2022[13]).
4.1.5. Bridging supply and demand through learner information and guidance
Guidance for choosing higher education, informed by career information, is an area where young students need substantial support. Evidence from PISA 2022 shows that, almost 2 in every 5 participating students have no clear career plans at age 15, with lower academic performers having the greatest level of uncertainty. This uncertainty is likely to contribute to poorer educational choices outcomes and create skills mismatches later in life (OECD, 2024[14]). High quality career education services can help to reduce these adverse effects of early career uncertainty.
Results of SAA exercises may be used to promote learner demand for higher education in areas of emerging skills needs in two main ways. Firstly, SAA exercises can inform career guidance professionals helping students make choices of developments in skill needs. Secondly, SAA information can be used to update online information portals that support learners to individually choose career pathways and associated education options.
Informing the activities of career guidance professionals in schools
School-level career guidance systems have been shown as instrumental in levelling the playing field and reducing disparities in educational choices from students from different social backgrounds (OECD, 2024[15]). Increasingly, guidance services in schools integrate labour market perspectives – such as outputs of SAA exercises – to help support subsequent education choices of their students, including perspectives from SAA exercises. However, the implementation of practices can vary from school to school and there are few examples of systems where school guidance counsellors are noted to or expected to consistently provide information on current and future skills needs to school-aged students.
HEIs, in partnership with schools, can also play a role in guiding students to consider education options that support the development of in-demand skills, through engaging in communication activities that raise students’ interest in careers in scientific fields, research and innovation. Examples of such activities include workshops, organising student visits to HEIs, or competitions organised for secondary school students. Such activities form part of the civic engagement mission of HEIs but can be supported by governments to put them on a stronger and more permanent footing. For example, Research Councils UK (RCUK) – the predecessor body to UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) – funded 12 universities to set up long-term school-university partnerships as part of its School-University Partnerships Initiative to support the development of research skills in secondary school students, and foster their interest in research and development careers (OECD, 2023[16]).
Informing the choice of individual students
While career guidance counselling in schools is a valuable resource and support for students making choices about higher education, evidence shows that career guidance services are not equally available or may vary in quality across schools. Similarly, school students may not always have access to well-informed guidance on education and career options within their home environments. It is therefore important that students have access to other sources of guidance on their education and subsequent career options, such as those provided through public services.
Online portals that provide labour market information have become increasingly commonplace, especially as tools to support PESs. The ForeAmmatti system in Finland is an example of a long-running labour market information portal that provides individuals with information on competences required for different jobs and labour market needs and forecasts for different occupations, as well as tailored options for individuals to assess how their skills meet current needs, or the types of upskilling and reskilling options that might suit them (OECD, 2023[1]).
The results of SAA exercises may be used in online information platforms that provide orientation and guidance to secondary school students on the labour market prospects of different education and training options. If sufficiently accessible and designed in a user-friendly manner that is tailored to the needs of younger students and/or their parents, information portals that integrate SAA information can help them to make well-informed career choices and can also promote increased demand for education in areas of skills shortage. An example of a particularly comprehensive service is the French ONISEP portal (Box 4.4).
ONISEP (French National Office for Information on Education and Professions) is a French public agency under the Ministry of National Education and Youth, responsible for providing comprehensive, impartial information on educational pathways and professional careers. It supports students, families, and educators by offering digital and print resources on school programmes, vocational training, higher education options, and labour market trends.
ONISEP provides an example of one of the most comprehensive public resources for guidance for students that integrates labour market and skills needs perspectives. Its comprehensiveness lies in the fact that it includes resources for both individual students and career guidance professionals. In 2024, ONISEP launched the AVENIRS (FUTURES) programme, a strategic initiative aimed at strengthening career guidance throughout the school system. The programme integrates new digital tools, personalised support services, and enhanced collaboration with regional actors to improve transitions from school to work or further study.
Source: ONISEP (2025[17]) https://www.onisep.fr/.
In other countries, governments may also encourage or require HEIs to make information on labour market perspectives and graduate outcomes available for each of their programmes. A particularly long running and well-developed example of this practice can be found in New Zealand, where tertiary education institutions are expected to publish a structured set of Key Information for Students (KIS) for each qualification they offer. The minimum set of data to be included in the KIS is prescribed by the government. It includes information about labour market outcomes for each programme and links to further guidance and information on skills needs on the Careers New Zealand website.
4.2.1. Reporting outputs of SAA exercises
The impact of SAA exercises fundamentally depends on how successfully their results are communicated and shared (OECD, 2023[1]). Widespread communication of results in different formats can help to increase engagement between diverse actors in the system, deepen feedback loops, improve the actionability of data and ensure that policy and practice governing education programme development is evidence informed. The SAA exercises reviewed for this report commonly produce several types of outputs. The most common outputs are published reports which may have a national, thematic or sectoral focus. Many of the national and regional reports are published at regular intervals (for example, annually) while in some systems sector-specific and thematic reports publications may be more sporadic or be published less frequently. Table 4.2 shows the types of reports produced from a selection of the reviewed SAA exercises.
Source: Authors’ elaboration.
4.2.2. Adapting outputs to serve different audiences
A clear statement of intended uses and regularly sharing results of an SAA exercise may not sufficiently guarantee its successful use in policy, practice of HEIs or the education decisions of learners. Communication of results should ideally be adapted into formats that are accessible for different user groups. This can help distil information from complex SAA exercises in a way that enhances its potential use to make informed decisions.
Some OECD countries have developed new approaches to sharing information from SAA exercises in recent years, aiming to improve the impact of the analysis on policy and practice. For example, several SAA have gone through significant simplification, whereby complex results are summarised to make the key messages easier to discern. As shown in Table 4.2, many of the SAA exercises reviewed make efforts to produce summaries or other material that highlights the key results of the exercise, to promote their widespread diffusion. For example, in Estonia, one of the outputs of the OSKA exercise is “trend cards”, a web-based tool providing an interactive display of “cards” that describe key trends shaping skills supply and, for each trend, its expected impact on jobs, on skills and on society, economy and education provision. Finland also summarises results from SAA as “needs cards”, which succinctly describe the forecast skills or education needs from the SAA exercises in a slideshow style, with many of the results presented as data graphics.
Providing data products built on information from SAA exercises can support use by researchers or policymakers from other economic sectors who may wish to integrate data from SAA exercises into their own models and forecasts. The extent to which SAA data is made accessible to users varies across countries and specific projects, but, as Table 4.2 shows, many SAA systems make downloadable databases or statistical tables of quantitative outputs of SAA available to users. An illustrative example is the French Occupations 2030 exercise, which provides an online data visualisation tool for users to extract and compare the data on skills need across regions or sectors.1
← 1. Those responsible for governance of SAA exercises may be more cautious about making detailed forecasting or projections data available on the same basis as official statistics that use well-known sample surveys or administrative databases. For example, while Jobs and Skills Australia integrates the underlying labour market and employment data it uses for employment projections into its “Jobs and Skills Atlas” (which brings together education and employment data for different occupations, industries and regions), it does not include the actual projections data in the Atlas. This caution may reflect the inherent uncertainty of SAA exercises, which produce estimates of future needs based on expert consensus rather than statistical validation.