States of Fragility, 2026 update

The States of Fragility, 2026 update examines how the increasing universality of fragility challenges established concepts for understanding geopolitics, economics and security. The policy brief considers a global landscape where systemic shocks cascade across societies, economies and regions. These shocks aggravate existing conflicts and geopolitical competition, as well as compound vulnerabilities associated with debt distress, environmental degradation and energy disruptions. The brief highlights that fragility is no longer simply a characteristic of a limited set of places. It is increasingly a feature of an interconnected world where the most severe impacts of crisis, conflict and instability converge in contexts identified with high and extreme fragility. The policy brief highlights the critical need for international engagement in the next-generation analytics to drive humanitarian, development and peace policies that provide credible responses in a global system where fragility is instrumentalised and where the roots of security challenges lie beyond the means of security instruments.