This chapter comprehensively assesses projected trends in plastics use, waste generation and end-of-life fates in the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) region through 2050, under current policies (Baseline scenario). It explores key socio-economic drivers, the evolution of plastics use and the share of primary and secondary plastics, the role of expected improvements in waste management systems and highlights differences across APT countries. The chapter lays the basis for assessing environmental impacts under current policies and provides a reference for assessing future policy scenarios in subsequent chapters.
Regional Plastics Outlook for Southeast and East Asia
Abstract
Under current policies (Baseline scenario), plastics use in the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) region is projected to increase by 85%, from 152 Mt in 2022 to 280 Mt in 2050. On average, ASEAN countries will see greater growth in plastics use (from 29 Mt in 2022 to 83 Mt in 2050) compared to Plus Three countries (from 122 Mt in 2022 to 197 Mt in 2050). This is primarily driven by underlying economic projections: the APT is expected to experience significant annual GDP growth (2.4% on average) with ASEAN countries outpacing the Plus Three. Driven by fast economic development, plastics use is projected to grow fastest in the lower middle-income ASEAN countries, while Japan and Korea see relatively minimal increases.
Beyond economic growth, changes in economic structures also influence plastics use. In particular, a shift from manufacturing towards business-related and industrial services – which on average use less plastics than manufacturing – is also projected to contribute to a relative decoupling of plastics use from economic growth, especially in the Plus Three.
The production and use of secondary plastics is projected to increase even in absence of more ambitious policies. However, the share of secondary plastics (12% in 2050, up from 8% in 2022) remains small compared to primary plastics. The ASEAN countries more than quadruple their secondary production volumes, but in absolute volumes as in shares of production this is still significantly below the Plus Three.
Packaging is projected to remain the largest application (a constant 32% in both 2022 and 2050) as it is linked to many different sectors, while transport has the fastest growth (rising from 10% of total use in 2022 to 13% in 2050), due to strong projected sectoral growth in motor vehicle manufacturing and transport services.
Plastic waste is projected to more than double by 2050 (rising from 113 Mt in 2022 to 242 Mt in 2050), with short-lived products, and especially packaging, as the largest driver (from 49 Mt to 91 Mt between 2022 and 2050 for packaging alone). Construction and manufacturing of motor vehicles are the fastest growing sectors driving an increase in plastic waste – and as construction lifetimes are significantly longer than for other applications, this implies a delay in the build-up of plastic waste. Plastic waste increases the fastest in ASEAN countries, in particular lower middle-income ASEAN countries (from 14 Mt in 2022 to 46 Mt in 2050), followed by China, which has the largest increase in absolute terms (from 76 Mt in 2022 to 160 Mt in 2050).
More plastic waste and better waste management are projected to drive a tripling in recycled plastic waste (from 14 Mt in 2022 to 45 Mt in 2050). Mismanaged plastic waste volumes are projected to rise by 69% (from 33 Mt in 2022 to 56 Mt in 2050). Improved waste management cannot offset the increase in total plastic waste volumes to reduce mismanaged plastic waste volumes in the APT region. Increasing volumes of mismanaged waste call for more policy action.
Chapter 2 provided an overview of trends in plastics use, trade, waste, end-of-life fates and environmental impacts. This chapter comprehensively assesses projected trends in plastics use, waste generation and end-of-life fates in the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) region through 2050, under current policies (Baseline scenario). Environmental impacts under current policies are discussed separately in the next chapter.
As explained in Chapter 1, for these projections, the ENV-Linkages model was refined compared to previous OECD analyses (2022[1]; 2024[2]) to provide more geographical detail for APT countries, by splitting the ASEAN in 4 modelled regions (Thailand, Rest of ASEAN-HIC&UMIC, Indonesia and Rest of ASEAN-LMIC) and the Plus Three (splitting Japan and Korea, in addition to China, which was already separated in the model). Country-level data for plastic use and end-of-life fates for all 13 APT countries was also integrated to perform the projections.
Chapter 2 highlighted how plastics use is intrinsically linked to economic activity. Thus, in order to understand the evolution of plastics use over time, as well as the associated downstream plastic waste, end-of-life fates and environmental consequences, consistent projections are needed of the socioeconomic drivers of plastics use. These include
population changes,
income growth (measured as GDP per capita) – together these make up the scale of economic activity (GDP) and thus plastics use,
changes in the structure of the economy, as plastic intensity differs widely across sectors, and
technological developments that allow reducing the physical inputs per unit of production and thus contribute to decoupling economic activity and plastics use.
The following subsections present the projected trends for these drivers in the APT region under current policies, i.e. the Baseline scenario.
4.2.1. Demographic growth in the APT region is projected to stabilise
The surge in plastics use within the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) region in recent decades is closely linked to various macroeconomic trends, that have been recognised as key drivers of growth in plastic production and use (OECD, 2022[3]; OECD, 2022[1]). Looking ahead, socioeconomic trends will continue to shape the evolution of plastics use, and ultimately plastic leakage, in the region.
The total population in the APT region is projected to stabilise in the coming decades, but this masks significant variety in national trends. The APT population is projected to grow until the mid-2030s, peaking at 2.3 billion people, before declining by 2% by 2050 are regressing below 2022 levels (Figure 4.1). As a result, the proportion of APT in the global population is expected to decline from 29% in 2022 to 24% in 2050. Demographic growth rates vary substantially across countries. By the middle of the century, the populations of the Philippines, Lao PDR, Malaysia and Cambodia are projected to increase by more than 20%, while population is expected to decrease by 8% in China, 11% in Korea and 16% in Japan. Although the overall population levels in 2050 are expected to remain similar to 2022 levels, population aging is expected to intensify, particularly in Korea, Singapore and Japan (see Annex Figure 4.A.1 in Annex 4.A).
Population in millions.
Source: Authors’ calculations based on The World Population Prospects: 2017 Revision (UN, 2017[4]).
4.2.2. Economic growth is projected to be higher in ASEAN countries than in the Plus Three
Economic activity is expected to continue growing in the APT region, though at a slowing pace. As income levels gradually converge and China’s recent growth boom slows down, the pace of economic growth is expected to decline (Figure 4.2). APT countries are projected to see annual GDP growth of 2.4% annually on average, between 2022 and 2050 (starting above 3% per year and declining to 1.5% by 2050). Growth in ASEAN countries (3.5% on average) is projected to outpace that of the Plus Three (2.1% on average), increasing economic weight of the ASEAN in the global economy, from 6% to 9% of global GDP. Meanwhile, the share of the Plus Three remains roughly constant (25% in 2022 and 24% in 2050).
Real GDP by aggregate region in USD trillion (2014 PPP), Baseline scenario.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model; based on short-term forecasts by OECD Economics (OECD, 2020[5]) Department and International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2020[6]).
Differences in economic growth among APT countries imply a shift in the distribution of GDP in the region over the coming decades (Figure 4.3). Despite rapidly falling GDP growth rates, China is projected to sustain its share in the APT, constant at 63% of the GDP of the overall APT. Meanwhile, the shares of Japan and Korea in the total GDP of the APT are projected to shrink, from 12% and 5% of the region in 2022, to 7% and 3% by 2050. Growth in the importance of the ASEAN signals shifting economic dynamics in the region. The growth is most prominent in Indonesia (from 8% of APT in 2022 to 11% in 2050), Philippines (from 2% to 5%) and Viet Nam (from 2% to 4%).
Share of GDP by region in 2022 and 2050, represented by their area, Baseline scenario
Note: Percentage share is given as ratio to whole APT region, to ease comparison between panels.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model; based on short-term forecasts by OECD Economics Department (OECD, 2020[5]) and International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2020[6]).
The Baseline scenario projects sustained growth of income levels (i.e. GDP per capita) in the APT region, with some convergence across countries. Currently, income levels (or living standards) vary widely across countries in the APT region, with Singapore’s GDP per capita exceeding USD 90 000 in 2022, compared to Cambodia’s USD 4 300 (see also Chapter 2). By 2050, with the exception of Singapore1, all APT counties are projected to see income growth, with average income levels reaching USD 37 600 (Figure 4.4), reflecting an average annual growth rate of 2.4%. ASEAN countries as a group are projected to surpass the global average level of GDP per capita by 2050 (USD 28 600 vs. USD 27 600; see Figure 4.4). Despite fast economic growth, GDP per capita in ASEAN countries is still projected to be considerably below the level of the Plus Three countries.
Cambodia is projected to experience the highest relative growth in GDP per capita with a growth rate of 4.4% (reaching USD 14 thousand in 2050) and overtake Myanmar (2.8% growth, reaching USD 10 thousand) in living standards; both remain well below the global average though. Viet Nam (3.9% growth rate; income of USD 30 800) and Philippines (3.9% growth, reaching USD 24 500) also have a significant expansion of their economy. GDP per capita in Brunei Darussalam is expected to continue growing at a moderate rate of – on average – 1.0% per year, overtaking Singapore (which is projected to have very low GDP per capita growth) as the richest country in the APT, reaching almost USD 100 000 per capita by mid-century – well above the OECD average (projected at USD 62 000 in 2050). The underlying drivers (changes in capital inputs, employment, and labour efficiency) also vary widely across countries (see Annex Figure 4.A.2 in Annex 4.A).
GDP per capita in USD trillion (2014 PPP) per capita, sorted by GDP per capita in 2022, Baseline scenario.
Note: GDP per capita is presented in USD, using 2014 purchasing power parity (PPP). The aggregate growth for Singapore over the period is absent, in parallel with a decrease in labour force (and population).
Source: ENV-Growth model (OECD Environment Directorate) and OECD Economics Department (Guillemette and Turner, 2018[7]).
4.2.3. The structure of the APT economies is projected to shift
Along with growth, the structure of the APT economies is projected to change, implying that demand for specific plastic applications also shift, leading to a change in the composition of plastics demand across polymers.
The economies of the ASEAN countries have significant shares for both industry and services (Figure 4.5). Growth is projected to be strong in industrial sectors such as iron and steel and electronics, as well as in transport services. The plastics sector itself is also projected to grow faster than the economy-wide average, which is not surprising as many of the more plastic-intensive sectors, such as motor vehicles and construction are at or above the average growth path. As shown in Annex Figure 4.A.3 in Annex 4.A, there is considerable heterogeneity across the economies in ASEAN countries. In Indonesia, the transport services sector is projected to significantly increase its importance becoming the third most important sector by 2050 only behind construction and non-textile manufacturing. In Thailand, manufacturing is also projected to gain in importance although business services and electronics would also play a key role in the economy, contributing to over one-quarter of the economy by the mid-century.
In the Plus Three countries, business-related services are already the largest sector, and its growth continues to outpace the economy-wide average. This implies a shift in the demand for plastics across different types of applications, as services are more connected to e.g. packaging. The textiles sector, which is key for synthetic fibres, also grows more rapidly.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
4.2.4. Efficiency improvements play only a minor role in the evolution of plastics used in manufacturing
The manufacturing sector is the most plastic-intensive in the economy. While the composition of inputs required for manufacturing products varies by country and evolves over time, only small changes are projected between 2022 and 2050 (Table 4.1). The use of plastics in the manufacturing sector is projected to closely follow total production volumes and to remain at around 2% as in 2022. Thus, while there are significant improvements in total factor productivity, these do not tend to extend to reductions in the use of plastics for production.
Share of components in production costs of manufacturing goods
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
4.3.1. Economic growth drives an almost doubling of plastics use by 2050
Plastics use is closely tied to economic development and various other socio-economic factors outlined in the previous section. This section presents projections on the use of plastics in the APT region under current policies (the Baseline scenario).
As GDP per capita in the APT is projected to more than double by 2050, plastics use is also expected to grow (Figure 4.6). Plastics use in APT countries is projected to rise from 152 Mt in 2022 to 280 Mt by mid-century (85% increase). For comparison, global plastics use is projected to grow at a similar rate from 487 Mt in 2022 to 937 Mt by 2050. As a result, the share of the APT region in global plastics use remains roughly stable: 31% in 2022 and 30% in 2050.
Economic growth is the primary driver of the evolution of plastics use, contributing 155 Mt of additional plastics use, by 2050.2 Population growth only has a minor impact, but there are regional differences: demographic declines in the Plus Three, particularly in China, offset the effects of population growth in the ASEAN countries, resulting in a net reduction of 7 Mt (see Section 4.2.1). Furthermore, structural shifts in the APT economies, particularly the growing share of services, reduce plastic intensity of economic activity, i.e. the volume of plastics use per dollar of production. As discussed above, efficiency improvements through technology developments have a negligent effect on the growth of plastics use. Together, structural and technology change avoid 20 Mt of plastics use by 2050.
Decomposition of the increase of plastics use between 2022 and 2050 in million tonnes (Mt), Baseline scenario
Note:
Population growth represents a projection in which plastics use is assumed to grow at the same speed as population and in which the regional plastics use per capita stays constant at 2022 levels.
Economic growth represents a counterfactual projection in which plastics use is assumed to grow at the same speed as GDP and in which the regional plastic intensity (the amount of plastic per unit of output) stays constant at 2022 levels.
Structural and Technology Change refers to the combined influence of sectoral shifts and technological advancements on reducing global plastics use.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
However, growth rates vary widely across countries (Figure 4.7). Faster growth tends to occur in countries with lower volumes of plastics use currently, reflecting lower income levels and faster growth in economic activity, generally (although country-specific circumstances also play a role). This catch-up dynamic in plastics use across the APT is consistent with underlying economic conditional convergence trends, leading to a more balanced distribution of plastics use across the region.
Growth is projected to be fast in Indonesia (from 7.9 Mt in 2022 to 21.8 Mt in 2050; +180% or x2.8 as indicated in the figure) and especially the rest of ASEAN – LMIC region (from 10.0 Mt in 2022 to 41.1 Mt in 2050; +310%). In contrast, Japan is projected to have the slowest growth of its plastics use (from 12.7 Mt in 2022 to 13.2 Mt in 2050; +3.5%), while Korea increases it from 5.5 Mt in 2022 to 6.5 Mt in 2050 (+18%). China remains the largest consumer of plastics, both in the region and globally. Plastics use in the country is projected to continue to grow significantly to 178 Mt in 2050 (104 Mt in 2022; +70%). In Thailand and the ASEAN-HIC&UMIC region growth in plastics use is moderate, with Thailand going from 6.0 Mt in 2022 to 9.2 Mt in 2050 (+53%), and the ASEAN-HIC&UMIC region going from 5.3 Mt in 2022 to 10.5 Mt in 2050 (+100%).
Plastics use in million tonnes (Mt), Baseline scenario
Note: The numbers on the right-hand side of the graph indicate the growth of plastics use from 2022 (dashed line) to 2050 for each region (e.g. x2 means a doubling of plastics use).
Rest of ASEAN – LMIC includes Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, Viet Nam; Rest of ASEAN – HIC & UMIC includes Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
4.3.2. Primary plastics will continue to dominate
Plastics demand can be met through primary or secondary (recycled) plastic production. In many APT countries, secondary plastics currently make up a small share of total production (8% for APT; cf. Chapter 2). Especially within the ASEAN, secondary production volumes are low, amounting to 1.4 Mt in 2022 (5% of total), versus around 10 Mt in the Plus Three (8% of total; Figure 4.8).
In the coming decades, this share is projected to steadily, but slowly, increase in all APT countries. Secondary plastics are projected to grow by 183% until 2050 (from 11 Mt in 2022 to 32 Mt in 2050) while primary plastics are projected to grow by 77% (from 140 Mt in 2022 to 248 Mt in 2050), with the share of secondary in total production in the APT region increasing from 8% in 2022 to 12% in 2050. This trend highlights the effectiveness of current policies, encouraging the switch to recyclable plastics, as well as increasing income levels, which induce improvements in waste management systems. ASEAN countries, particularly the ASEAN-LMIC region (which includes Indonesia) and Thailand (which is an upper middle-income ASEAN country), are expected to experience the highest increase of secondary plastics in the APT region. As a group, the ASEAN countries more than quadruple their secondary production volumes, but both in absolute volumes and in shares of production this is still significantly below the Plus Three.
Despite the faster growth in secondary production, primary plastics will still represent the dominant share of plastic production in 2050, and in absolute terms the increase in primary plastics is larger than the increase in secondary plastics. Thus, the environmental burden associated with primary plastic production continues to grow significantly in the current policies (Baseline) scenario.
Primary and secondary plastic production in APT region in million tonnes (Mt), Baseline scenario
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
4.3.3. The region will continue to see rising per capita plastics use
Plastics use per capita is projected to increase in all APT countries (Figure 4.9). Japan (24%) and Korea (33%) experience a small increase by mid-century. Plastics use per capita is projected to more than double by 2050 in Indonesia and rest of ASEAN – LMIC, and almost double in China (85%). In the rest of ASEAN - HIC & UMIC, the 2022 level of per capita plastics use is the highest in the whole APT region (cf. the APT average in 2022 is 67 kg/cap), almost reaching the levels observed in the Plus Three region in 2050.
Plastics use per person (kg/capita) and growth factors between 2022 and 2050
Note: The numbers on the right-hand side of the graph indicate the growth of per-capita plastics use from 2022 to 2050 for each region (e.g. x2 means a doubling of plastics use).
Rest of ASEAN – LMIC includes Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, Viet Nam; Rest of ASEAN – HIC & UMIC includes Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
While all countries are projected to increase their plastics use per capita, the dynamics of this growth vary significantly across the region (Figure 4.10). In Indonesia, Rest of ASEAN – HIC & UMIC, and LMIC, both population and plastics use are projected to rise, although the latter will experience a higher increase. In contrast, Japan, China, and Thailand are projected to increase their plastics use despite declining population numbers. In the case of Korea, both population and plastics use are remaining almost unchanged.
Population (millions) and plastics use (Mt) from 2022 to 2050
Note: Panel B zooms in on the bottom-left corner of panel A.
Rest of ASEAN – LMIC includes Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, Viet Nam; Rest of ASEAN – HIC & UMIC includes Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
4.3.4. Packaging and transportation drive much of the increase in plastics use
Changes in the sectoral structure of the economies in the APT, with fast industrial growth in ASEAN countries and ongoing servitisation in the Plus Three, are reshaping the composition of plastics use by application. Packaging remains by far the largest share of plastics use, accounting for a constant near one-third of total use through to 2050 (Figure 4.11). Plastics used in transportation are projected to increase fastest (2.5 times between 2022 and 2050). This reflects the increasing importance of the transport sector, a trend seen globally (compare the green diamonds in the right panel with the bar for APT). In contrast, plastics used in construction are projected to grow the least. This is largely due to the waning of China’s infrastructure and construction boom, which previously drove demand. While some ASEAN countries have fast growth in infrastructure and construction, the volumes remain modest compared to the earlier boost observed in China. Plastics in electrical and electronic products, and tyres, are also projected to grow fast at a global level, but this is less pronounced in the APT region due to its specific economic profile. Conversely, textiles grow more rapidly in the APT than globally, reflecting the economic development trends in both ASEAN and Plus Three presented in Figure 4.5 above.
Plastics use in million tonnes (Mt), Baseline scenario
Note: The applications for personal protective equipment linked to COVID-19, and personal care products, are omitted from the graph as the
quantity of plastics they use is too small for the calculation to be meaningful.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
The increase of plastics use in applications such as motor vehicles and electronics (Figure 4.11) is intrinsically linked to the economic growth these industries will enjoy within the APT region (cf. Figure 4.5). Motor vehicles show a significant increase in this sector in ASEAN countries (+211%) and China (+126%), while in Japan and Korea this sector is projected to decrease (-26%). The electronic sector shows a similar trend however this sector is one that requires less plastics, fostering the reduction of plastics by structural changes.
These sectoral trends also affect the plastic intensity of the different economies in the APT region (see Annex Figure 4.A.4 in Annex 4.A). In Japan and Korea both plastic intensity and economic growth are lower compared with the rest of the APT countries, where overall (albeit not in all sectors), plastic intensity is projected to increase in the coming decades. Plastic-intensive sectors in China like food and textiles will remain important in the APT region. These sectors are closely linked with packaging applications, where plastics will continue to play an essential role.
4.4.1. Plastic waste is projected to more than double by 2050
As in many regions worldwide, plastics use in APT countries remains largely linear rather than circular, resulting in significant amounts of plastic waste. Much of this is incinerated, landfilled or mismanaged (including a portion leaking to the environment). Plastic waste, when collected, is typically managed as part of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW), alongside other materials. In addition, plastics is also present in other types of waste, such as industrial waste.3
The dynamics of plastic waste generation differ from those of plastics use as there is a time lag between use and waste, which varies by product lifespan (OECD, 2022[3]). For example, plastics used in transportation only become waste after 13 years on average, whereas the lifespan of some plastics in construction can be as long as 70 years (35 years on average). Plastics in packaging and consumer products and packaging have short lifespans, often less than 1 year.
In the Baseline scenario, plastic waste in APT countries is projected to more than double, from 113 Mt in 2022 to 242 Mt in 2050 (Figure 4.12). Continued socio-economic developments and economic growth (as shown in Section 4.2) lead to rapidly rising plastics use (Section 4.3), particularly in ASEAN countries with fast-growing plastics use as they catch up to higher income countries.
In line with the growth in the use of plastics, plastic waste increases for all applications, though at different rates. Waste from short-lived plastic products, such as packaging, consumer products and textiles, is projected to almost double (from 78 Mt in 2022 to 148 Mt in 2050 for these three applications together, and from 49 Mt to 91 Mt for packaging alone). However, the share of short-lived products in overall waste is projected to slightly decrease, from 68% in 2022 to 61% in 2050. In contrast, waste increases at a faster rate for longer-lived applications, including construction. This surge reflects the inertia of durable products in the system: as fast-growing economies such as China invest in infrastructure and construction on a massive scale (OECD, 2019[8]), they drive a rapid increase in the use of durable plastics with long lifespans. The role of “historical” waste, i.e. waste from applications produced before 2022, is quite substantial for durable products such as those used in the vehicle and construction industries. The lag between plastics use and waste implies that plastic stocks accumulate and continue to create waste flows beyond 2050.
Plastic waste for APT countries by application in Mt, Baseline scenario
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Within APT region, the largest absolute growth in plastic waste volume is projected to occur by China (from 76 Mt in 2022 to 160 Mt in 2050; Figure 4.13), which combines very large volumes of short-lived plastics use with large volumes of waste from long-lived applications that are discarded before 2050, as outlined above. In line with the results for plastics use – not surprising given the dominance of short-lived plastics such as packaging in total plastics use – the Rest of ASEAN – LMIC region show the fastest growth in relative terms, almost quadrupling (from 7.5 Mt in 2022 to 28 Mt in 2050); Indonesia is also expected to experience a sharp growth, from 6.5 Mt in 2022 to 18 Mt in 2050 (+183%). In per capita terms, the differences across regions are somewhat smaller, as fast growth in plastics use occurs in countries with fast population growth (see Annex Table 4.A.1 in Annex 4.A).
Plastic waste by region in million tonnes (Mt), Baseline scenario
Note: Rest of ASEAN – LMIC includes Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, Viet Nam; Rest of ASEAN – HIC & UMIC includes Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
4.4.2. Waste management improves, but not enough to offset growth in waste, and thus mismanaged waste increases
The evolution of specific end-of-life fates for plastic waste depend on a combination of (i) the growth in the total volume of waste and (ii) changes in the shares of different waste management options.4 In the case of recycling, both the increased quantity of waste and improved waste management contribute to a strong increase in the amount of waste being recycled (Figure 4.14 shows this for the aggregate APT region). Improved waste management takes into account changes in the share of plastic waste collected for recycling, as well as in the share of plastics that is collected for recycling but ultimately discarded and not converted into scrap (i.e. recycling losses; see (Roosen et al., 2020[9]) and (OECD, 2022[1]) for more details).
Factors driving the increase in recycled plastic waste in Mt between 2022 and 2050, Baseline scenario
Notes: Waste volume change represents a hypothetical projection in which all management shares are assumed to be fixed at the 2022 level. Thus, plastic waste collected for recycling is assumed to grow at the same speed as total plastic waste.
Waste management change represents the change in the waste management shares; this reflects a balance between larger shares of waste
being generated in emerging and developing economies and improved waste management systems in all countries.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
In contrast to recycling, the volume of mismanaged waste contains a trade-off between the amounts of total waste and the share of waste that is properly managed (collected and sorted) (Figure 4.15). The fast growth in plastic waste generation, which by 2050 contributes 38 Mt to the 2022 mismanaged waste level of 33 Mt, is only partially offset by the improvements in waste collection and sorting, which prevent 15 Mt of generated plastic waste from being mismanaged; thus, the total volume of mismanaged waste increases to 56 Mt by 2050.
Factors driving the increase in total mismanaged waste in Mt between 2022 and 2050, Baseline scenario
Notes: Waste volume change represents a hypothetical projection in which all management shares are assumed to be fixed at the 2022 level. Thus, plastic waste collected for recycling is assumed to grow at the same speed as total plastic waste.
Waste management change represents the change in the waste management shares; this reflects a balance between larger shares of waste
being generated in emerging and developing economies and improved waste management systems in all countries.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
There are noticeable differences in waste management – and thus end-of-life fates – between countries in the APT region, reflecting past trends, countries’ regulations and other related policies, as well as local circumstances. In line with the overall trends, recycling shares increase in all countries while mismanaged shares (insofar applicable) decrease (Figure 4.16). For instance, recycling is projected to rise steeply in the Plus Three countries (Japan, Korea and China), following strong policy commitments. The share of incineration is projected to decline in these countries, as countries move from incineration to recycling. In China, there is also a trend of increased landfilling to reduce the mismanaged waste share.
In most ASEAN countries, it is the share of landfilling that is projected to increase the most, reflecting the dominant effect of increased waste collection and sorting efforts; this growth comes on top of widely differing 2022 share though. Indonesia is an extreme case, with very high levels of mismanaged waste in 2022, reflecting the unique local circumstances (see Chapter 2). Thus, despite the improvements in waste management from current policies and income growth, the Baseline scenario projects a mismanaged share of plastic waste in Indonesia going from 72% in 2022 to 68% by 2050.5 The uncertainty level is very high for these projections. Landfilling in particular is very hard to estimate, as the distinction between sanitary and unsanitary landfilling, as well as the acceptability of new landfills, remains a large unknown.
The share of recycling is also projected to increase in all ASEAN countries, though remaining relatively limited in the lower middle-income countries, but more substantial in the high- and upper middle-income countries (which tend to have better developed recycling sectors). However, mismanaged waste remains a significant share of plastic waste in many ASEAN countries in the absence of new policies.
Shares (%) of plastic waste in million tonnes (Mt) by waste management category, Baseline scenario
Note: Rest of ASEAN – LMIC includes Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, Viet Nam; Rest of ASEAN – HIC & UMIC includes Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Finally, as the decomposition graphs (Figure 4.14 and Figure 4.15) show, total recycled plastic waste and total mismanaged plastic waste volumes as projected for the APT region combine the effects of improved waste management (Figure 4.16) with continued increase in waste volumes (Figure 4.13). The total volume of mismanaged waste therefore continues to rise in the ASEAN group of countries as well as in China (Figure 4.17).6 Total mismanaged waste in the ASEAN region is projected to grow from 14 Mt in 2022 to 28 Mt in 2050, and from 20 Mt to 28 Mt in China. With this increase comes a significant additional environmental burden, as shown in the next chapter.
Plastic waste by waste management category in million tonnes (Mt), Baseline scenario
Note: The numbers to the left and right show the share of each fate in 2022 and 2050 respectively.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Share of population by age range.
Source: Authors’ calculations based on The World Population Prospects: 2017 Revision (UN, 2017[4]).
Contribution of each factor to growth between 2022 & 2050, all in percentage points.
Note: The changes in the GDP per capita in market exchange rates (y) are decomposed in three components: (i) the change in employment rate (ER), (ii) the change in capital per worker (where capital is defined in a broad way including land and natural resources) (k), and, as a residual factor, (iii) the change in labour efficiency (A). Changes in GDP (in market exchange rates) can be decomposed as in the following formula: where is the share of labour income in GDP. The GDP per capita growth rate in market exchange rates differs from the one in PPP exchange rates as the weights of different countries in regional aggregates differ.
Rest of ASEAN – LMIC includes Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, Viet Nam; Rest of ASEAN – HIC & UMIC includes Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Note: Sorted by 2022-2050 sectoral output growth in Indonesia.
Rest of ASEAN – LMIC includes Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, Viet Nam; Rest of ASEAN – HIC & UMIC includes Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Plastic intensity in grams of plastics per unit of sectoral output in USD (g/USD) and sectoral growth
Note: sorted by plastic intensity in 2022 in ASEAN countries.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Plastic waste by region in kilogrammes per capita (kg p.c.), Baseline scenario
Note: Rest of ASEAN – LMIC includes Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, Viet Nam; Rest of ASEAN – HIC & UMIC includes Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Plastic waste in Mt and shares (%) of plastic waste by waste management category, Baseline scenario
Note: Rest of ASEAN – LMIC includes Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, Viet Nam; Rest of ASEAN – HIC & UMIC includes Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
References
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← 1. Productivity growth is projected to be very small for Singapore, with a declining labour force and population; combined these imply virtually no income growth in the region between 2022 and 2050.
← 2. These are based on a decomposition of the growth of plastics use between 2022 and 2050 based on the underlying drivers, see (OECD, 2022[1]) for more details.
← 3. Waste estimates from the ENV-Linkages model include MSW as well as microbeads, waste from road markings and industrial waste, which includes waste from construction and transport activities.
← 4. One of the underlying assumptions discussed in detail in (OECD, 2022[1]; OECD, 2022[10]) is that the share of plastic waste collected for recycling keeps growing to 2050. Another important assumption is that countries with growing income invest in better waste collection and treatment as well as in improved litter clean-up, resulting in lower shares of total mismanaged waste (and in most cases more landfilling).
← 5. These numbers are aligned to earlier projections for Indonesia (cf. Chapter 2), but differ slightly due to re-allocation of imported plastic waste and collected and uncollected litter.
← 6. More detailed results are presented in Annex Figure 4.A.5 in Annex 4.A.