The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 is a collaborative effort by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Serving as a reference for forward-looking policy planning, the Outlook draws upon the expertise of both organisations, incorporating inputs from collaborating member countries and commodity organisations. It provides a comprehensive assessment of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets over the next ten years. The Outlook uses the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model to ensure consistency and global equilibrium across all markets. Detailed methodology and model documentation are available online at www.agri-outlook.org.
This 21st joint edition of the Agricultural Outlook comprises three parts.
Part 1: Agricultural and food markets: Trends and prospects (Chapter 1) outlines key projections and insights on challenges facing agri-food systems over the coming decade. The chapter presents the recent developments in agricultural markets (Section 1.1), and underlying macroeconomic and policy assumptions (Section 1.2). It discusses the trends and prospects for consumption (Section 1.3), production (Section 1.4), trade (Section 1.6), and prices (Section 1.7). This year, the Outlook highlights the significance of emission reduction technologies for food security and environmental sustainability of food systems (Section 1.5).
Part 2: Commodity chapters describe recent market developments and medium-term projections for consumption, production, trade, and prices for the commodities covered in the Outlook. Each of the nine chapters — Cereals (Chapter 2), Oilseeds and oilseed products (Chapter 3), Sugar (Chapter 4), Meat (Chapter 5), Dairy and dairy products (Chapter 6), Fish (Chapter 7), Biofuels (Chapter 8), Cotton (Chapter 9), and Other products (Chapter 10) — concludes with a discussion of the main issues and uncertainties affecting markets over the next ten years.
Part 3: The Statistical Annex is available online as support material but not included in the printed version of the Outlook. The Statistical Annex presents projections for production, consumption, trade, and prices for agricultural commodities, fish, and biofuels, as well as macroeconomic and policy assumptions. Market evolution over the Outlook period is described using annual growth rates and data for the final year (2034) relative to a three-year base period (2022-24).
The Agricultural Outlook is prepared jointly by the OECD and FAO Secretariats.
At the OECD, the baseline projections and Outlook report were prepared by members of the Trade and Agriculture Directorate: Marcel Adenäuer, Fabiana Cerasa, Thomas Chatzopoulos, Armelle Elasri (publication co-ordinator), Hubertus Gay (Outlook co-ordinator), Barbora Gilbert, Céline Giner, Gaëlle Gouarin, Lee Ann Jackson (Head of Division), Edith Laget, Claude Nénert, Grégoire Tallard, and Kotone Yamamoto of the Agro-Food Trade and Markets Division, and for fish and seafood by Claire Delpeuch and Will Symes of the Agricultural Resources Policy Division. The OECD Secretariat is grateful for the contributions provided by the visiting expert Jiayu Zhuang (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences). The section on emission reduction technology is based on collaboration with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), with special thanks to Stefan Frank, Petr Havlik and Yazhen Wu. The partial stochastic modelling builds on work by the Economics of the Food System Unit of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. Communication and publication preparation were provided by Caitlin Boros, Kristina Medekova, and Cem Mehmethanoglu. The publication benefited from the review by David Hallam. Technical support in the preparation of the Outlook was provided by Marc Regnier and Eric Espinasse. Many other colleagues in the OECD Secretariat and member country delegations provided useful comments on earlier drafts of the report.
At the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the baseline projections and Outlook report were prepared by members of the Markets and Trade Division (EST) under the leadership of Boubaker Ben-Belhassen (EST Division Director), with the overall guidance of Máximo Torero (FAO Chief Economist) and by the Economic and Social Development Stream Management team. The core projections team consisted of: Abdi Ali, Sergio René Araujo Enciso, Isabel Burgos, Giulia Caddeo, Holger Matthey (Team Leader), Svetlana Mladenovic and Irmak Yaka. For fish, the team consisted of Pierre Charlebois, Adrienne Egger, and Stefania Vannuccini from the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Division. Advice on fishmeal and fish oil issues and historical data were provided by Enrico Bachis from the Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO). Macroeconomic projections benefited from the input by Oxford Economics. The sugar and cotton sections were contributed by Mamoun Amrouk and Fabio Palmeri, with data and technical advice by Peter de Klerk from the International Sugar Organization (ISO) and Lorena Ruiz from the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC). The section on bananas and major tropical fruits was prepared by Sabine Altendorf, with input from Giuseppe Bonavita and Pascal Liu. Commodity expertise was provided by Erin Collier, Delphine Leconte Demarsy, Emanuele Marocco, Shirley Mustafa, Cecilia Nardi, Monika Tothova (Team Leader), and Di Yang. Anthony Bennett contributed to Box 1.3. The Hand-in-Hand Initiative: Transforming Agrifood Systems. Aikaterini Kavallari, Georgios Mermigkas, and Andrea Zimmermann provided Box 1.4 The role of trade in enhancing food security, nutrition, and environmental sustainability. Tiziana Pirelli provided valuable expertise for Box 4.1. The role of the “Sugarcane Complex” in the bioenergy sector. Research assistance and database preparation were provided by Maria Antip, David Bedford, Victoria Johnston, Grace Maria Karumathy, Yanyun Li, Lavinia Lucarelli, Emanuele Mazzini, and Marco Milo. This edition also benefited from comments made by various colleagues from FAO and member country institutions. The authors would like to thank Araceli Cardenas, Yongdong Fu, Jonathan Hallo, Jessica Mathewson, Kimberly Sullivan, and Ettore Vecchione for their invaluable assistance with publication and communication issues.
Finally, information and feedback provided by the International Cotton Advisory Committee, International Dairy Federation, International Fertilizer Association, International Grains Council, International Sugar Organization, Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO) and World Association of Beet and Cane Growers is gratefully acknowledged.
The complete Agricultural Outlook, including the fully documented Outlook database that includes historical data and projections, can be accessed through the OECD-FAO joint internet site: www.agri-outlook.org.
The published OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 is available on the OECD’s website and FAO Document Repository.