The OECD fragility framework is informed by 56 indicators across six dimensions of fragility. In each dimension, indicators are assigned to consider risks (R) and coping-capacities (C) or resilience. The analysis covers 177 contexts for which data is available across at least 70% of the 56 indicators. Contexts that fall short of this threshold are analysed using alternative quantitative and qualitative approaches. Levels of fragility are calculated using Principal Component Analysis and qualitative assessment. Indicators are reviewed annually while the framework is reviewed every five years.
Multidimensional Fragility Dashboard
The OECD's multidimensional fragility framework tracks exposure to risk and coping capacities to manage those risks. Using this, the OECD measures the intensity of fragility in 177 countries and territories. It also monitors official development assistance (ODA) and other financial flows to measure international support to countries that need it most.
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Economic
The economic dimension measures vulnerabilities stemming from weak economic fundamentals and/or high exposure to macroeconomic shocks, as well as coping capacities to mitigate their impact. Ten indicators of risks and coping capacities are measured that relate to public finance and fiscal space, labour market fundamentals, macroeconomic characteristics, the soundness of government policies for regulatory stability, and economic inclusivity. These dynamics affect various levels of the economy from the government to business and households.
| Name | Category | Description | Rationale | Data source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate | Risk (R) | The share of the labour force that is without work but is available for and seeking employment. | High unemployment may lower the opportunity cost of joining an armed rebellion or using force, and can exacerbate grievances among groups (Elbadawi and Sambanis, 2000). | World Development Indicators (World Bank) |
| Natural resource dependence | Risk (R) | The sum of oil, natural gas, coal (hard and soft), mineral and forest rents. | Resource dependence increases exposure to oil and mineral price fluctuations, and it can increase the propensity for violence (Collier and Hoeffler, 2004). | World Development Indicators (World Bank) |
| Exchange rate volatility | Risk (R) | Official exchange rates are determined by national authorities or by the official exchange market. It is calculated as an annual average based on monthly averages (local currency units relative to USD). Exchange rate volatility is the 3-year rolling standard deviations of the exchange rate. | Exchange rate volatility can increase uncertainty, discourage investment, impact trade and inhibit economic growth (Barguellil et al., 2018). | World Bank, International Monetary Fund |
| Debt-to-GDP ratio | Risk (R) | Total debt liabilities issued by the government as a share of GDP. | Countries facing high levels of sovereign debt are more exposed during economic crises. This can, in turn, influence civil unrest and conflict. | World Economic Outlook (IMF) |
| Current account deficit | Risk (R) | The sum of net exports, net primary income and net secondary income. A negative balance indicates deficit and a positive balance indicates surplus. | Large current account deficit combined with poor public spending increases the risk of debt distress. In developing countries, it can also suggest that financial deficits are not compensated by the inflow of foreign aid. | World Development Indicators (World Bank) |
| Financial inclusion | Coping mechanism (C) | Measured by the number of commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults. Commercial bank branches are retail locations that provide financial services to customers. | Access to finance promotes savings and investment, creates opportunities, and is crucial for a thriving democracy and market economy (World Bank, 2022). | World Development Indicators (World Bank) |
| Regulatory quality | Coping mechanism (C) | Perceptions of the government's ability to introduce policies and regulations that promote private sector development. | Higher levels of regulatory quality can drive entrepreneurship (Agostino et al., 2020) and lower barriers for entry into markets. | World Governance Indicators (World Bank) |
| Tax revenue, excluding social contributions | Coping mechanism (C) | Government tax revenue as percentage of GDP, excluding social contributions. | Public revenues are needed to invest in human capital, infrastructure and services. Many developing countries still struggle to collect sufficient revenues (15% of GDP) to finance their own development (World Bank, 2022). | UNU-WIDER |
| Women's non-agriculture employment | Coping mechanism (C) | Share of female workers in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector as a percentage of total wage employment in that sector. | Equal employment opportunities for women allows them to participate in the economy, and indicates the capacity of the labour market and the economy to adapt to changes (United Nations, 2007). | ILO Stats |
| GDP per capita growth | Coping mechanism (C) | Three-year rolling average of the annual percentage growth rate of GDP per capita based on constant local currency. | An economy with strong growth is less likely to see economic tensions leading to violence (Miguel et al. 2004). | World Development Indicators (World Bank) |
Environmental
The environmental dimension measures vulnerability to climactic and health risks that affect livelihoods, as well as the ability of legal and social institutions to counterbalance such risks. Environmental fragility can widen inequalities, increase the risk of violence over resources, and affect economic and social well-being, thereby impacting other dimensions of fragility.
| Name | Category | Description | Rationale | Data source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water stress | Risk (R) | The ratio of total water withdrawals to available renewable water supplies. | Prolonged water stress can have negative impacts beyond the environment. It can affect public health and economic development, and increase the risk of conflict (Klobucista and Robinson, 2022). | Aqeduct, World Resources Institute |
| Resource crimes | Risk (R) | Activities relating to the illicit extraction, smuggling and selling of natural resources and commodities. | Illegal trafficking of natural resources have devastating impacts on the ecosystem, biodiversity and sustainable development (Illicit Trade Group, 2022). | Global Organised Crime Index |
| Lack of adaptive capacity | Risk (R) | The ability to adjust in order to reduce potential damage from the negative consequences of climate events. It is composed of 12 indicators. | A lack of adaptive capacity creates a risk to a context, especially when it is highly exposed to the impact of climate change (IPCC, 2001). | Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index |
| Exposure to hazards | Risk (R) | Risk of exposure to disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, floods and drought. | Natural disaster mitigation requires large scale mobilisation of resources and expertise. Contexts facing high multidimensional fragility often struggle to distribute resources across pressing risks (DuBois, 2018). | INFORM Index |
| Environment-related displacement | Risk (R) | Internal displacements per capita induced by natural disasters over a reporting year. | Environment-related displacement indicates high exposure to natural disasters and weak coping capacity. Displacement can also have adverse environmental impacts, through poor settlement management and increased pressure on food, energy and water resources (UNEP 2016). | IDMC |
| Air quality | Coping mechanism (C) | The quality of air based on exposure to: PM2.5 (47%), household air pollution from solid fuels (38%), ozone (5%), Nox (5%), SO2 (2%), CO (2%), and VOC (2%). | Maintaining healthy air quality is vital for preventing adverse effects of air pollution on both human lives and the planet (UNEP, 2022; Wolf et al., 2022). | Environmental Performance Index |
| Biodiversity and habitat | Coping mechanism (C) | The extent to which biodiversity is protected based on: terrestrial biome protection (national) (22.2%), terrestrial biome protection (global) (22.2%), marine protected areas (22.2%), Protected Areas Representativeness Index (14%), Species Habitat Index (8.3%), Species Protection Index (8.3%), and Biodiversity Habitat Index (3%). | Biodiversity is critical for planetary health, supporting human societies, economies and well-being (Wolf et al., 2022). | Environmental Performance Index |
| Food supply adequacy | Coping mechanism (C) | Average dietary energy supply adequacy (percent, 3-year average). | Climate change increases food insecurity which, in turn, increases the risk of conflict and fragility. Resilient systems are better able to secure a stable and adequate food supply (FAO 2015; OECD 2022). | FAO Stats |
| Share of electricity production from renewables | Coping mechanism (C) | Share of electricity from renewable sources. | Renewable energy is more sustainable, creates lower emissions and generates more jobs than fossil fuels (United Nations, 2022). | Ember |
| Women's participation in UNFCCC delegations | Coping mechanism (C) | Percentage of women in UNFCCC delegations. | Gender equality, women’s empowerment and involving women in decision-making can lead to better environmental outcomes (Strumskyte et al., 2022). | UNFCCC |
Human
The human dimension of fragility captures the risks and coping capacities that affect people’s wellbeing and their ability to live long and prosperous lives. It assesses ten indicators including human capital, reducing inequalities and vulnerabilities, and the provision of basic social services. This dimension makes the framework, and the OECD’s analysis of multidimensional fragility, more human-centred.
| Name | Category | Description | Rationale | Data source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youth not in education, employment, or training | Risk (R) | The proportion of young people who are not in education, employment, or training as a share of the total population in the age group. | Unemployed or underemployed youth have less economic and social power. Widespread youth unemployment prevents companies and countries from developing competitive advantages based on human capital investment. NEET youth are neither improving their employability nor gaining experience through employment, undermining future human capital prospects in their communities. | World Development Indicators (World Bank) |
| Prevalence of stunting | Risk (R) | The percentage of children under 5 whose height for age is more than two standard deviations below the international median. | Undernourished children have lower resistance to infection and are more likely to die from common childhood ailments. Frequent illness saps children's nutritional status, locking them into a vicious cycle of recurring sickness and faltering growth (World Bank, 2022). | World Development Indicators (World Bank) |
| Human inequality | Risk (R) | Average of the scores of inequality in life expectancy, education and income. | Inequality stems from differences in income, gender, socioeconomic status, group affiliation and other factors. It affects people’s quality of life and capabilities, leading to intergenerational effects in core areas, such as health and education (OECD, 2022). | Human Development Report |
| Age dependency ratio | Risk (R) | The ratio of dependents (people younger than 15 and older than 64) to the working-age population (aged 15-64). | A high dependency ratio indicates that the economically active population face a greater burden to support the social services needed by children and older persons (United Nations, 2007). | World Development Indicators (World Bank) |
| Adolescent birth rate | Risk (R) | The number of births per 1,000 women aged 15-19. | Pregnancy during adolescence can have negative impacts on girls' education, livelihood and health, as well as social consequences, including stigmatisation, violence, and early or forced marriage (UNICEF, 2022). | World Development Indicators (World Bank) |
| Access to basic water | Coping mechanism (C) | The percentage of population using at least basic drinking water services, i.e. drinking water from an improved source (e.g. pipes, boreholes) within 15 minutes from home. | Lack of access to adequate drinking water contributes to deaths and illness, while perpetuating gender inequality as women and girls are often responsible for collecting water. Improving access to drinking water reduces under-five mortality rates and burdens on women and girls, while improving productivity and education (World Bank,2022). | World Development Indicators (World Bank) |
| Access to immunisation services | Coping mechanism (C) | The percentage of children aged 12-23 months who received DPT vaccinations. | Immunisation is one of the most cost-effective public health interventions and is essential for reducing under-five mortality (World Bank, 2022). | World Development Indicators (World Bank) |
| Gender gap in secondary school enrollment | Coping mechanism (C) | The ratio of girls to boys enrolled in secondary school. | Girls’ education strengthens economies and reduces inequality. It contributes to more stable, resilient societies that give all individuals, including boys and men, the opportunity to fulfil their potential (UNICEF, 2022). | World Development Indicators (World Bank) |
| Primary completion rate | Coping mechanism (C) | The number of new entrants in the last grade of primary education, regardless of age, divided by the population at the entrance age for the last grade of primary education. | Education is a human right and a powerful driver of development. It reduces poverty while improving health, gender equality and stability (World Bank, 2022). | World Development Indicators (World Bank) |
| Social protection coverage | Coping mechanism (C) | The share of the population effectively covered by a social protection system. | Social protection systems help people cope with crises, improve productivity, invest in health and education, and protect the aging population (World Bank, 2022). | ILO Social Protection Floors Recommendation |
Political
The political dimension measures vulnerability to risks inherent in political processes, as well as coping capacities to strengthen state accountability and transparency. Political fragility affects other dimensions by shaping the institutions that mediate economic and social relationships and contribute to peaceful, just and inclusive societies.
| Name | Category | Description | Rationale | Data source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restrictions on political rights | Risk (R) | The freedom of electoral processes, pluralism, political participation and functioning of government. | Political participation encourages citizens’ engagement with the government and strengthens the state’s legitimacy (Rocha Menocal, 2011; Lihai et al., 2019), while political exclusion increases the risk of political instability. | Freedom House |
| Prevalence of clientelism | Risk (R) | The extent to which politics are based on clientelistic relationships, i.e. targeted, contingent distribution of resources in exchange for political support, based on indicators for vote-buying, particularistic vs. public goods, and whether party linkages are programmatic or clientelistic. | Clientelism has an adverse impact on long term development, as it favours short-term strategic transfers to specific portions of the population in exchange for votes and political support. This practice exacerbates inequalities and may lower political competition (Bardhan & Mookherjee, 2012). | Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) |
| Perception of corruption | Risk (R) | Perceived levels of corruption, i.e. the misuse of public power for private benefit, determined by expert assessments and opinion surveys. | Perception of corruption is a risk factor contributing to political fragility. Actual corruption can fuel grievances and increase demands for political change that may trigger political violence and social unrest. | Transparency International |
| Freedom from political killings and torture | Risk (R) | Based on indicators that reflect violence committed by government agents that are not directly related to elections. | Data on political killings and torture provide early-warning signals of state breakdown, and the erosion of institutional accountability and the rule of law. They reveal when governments have lost the monopoly on legitimate force or are turning coercive power against their own populations. | Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) |
| Arrests from online political content | Risk (R) | The likelihood of being arrested for posting counter-government content online. | High numbers of arbitrary arrests suggest digital surveillance by the government that prevents political dialogue, spreads fear and obstructs human rights. | Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) |
| Judicial constraints on the executive | Coping mechanism (C) | The extent to which the executive respects the constitution and court rulings, and the extent to which the judiciary is able to act independently. | Conflict is more likely in political systems that suffer from a lack of rule of law. Judicial constraints prevent the executive from taking control of the state. Judicial independence builds trust between citizens and government, and safeguards positive civil, political and socioeconomic rights (Ellett, 2015). | Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) |
| Legislative constraints on the executive | Coping mechanism (C) | The extent to which the legislature and government agencies can investigate the executive. | Legislative constraints on executive power are critical for resilience, mitigating political fragility, guaranteeing minority interests (Taylor, 2005) and providing peaceful power-sharing mechanisms (Sisk, 2006). | Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) |
| Size of regime support group | Coping mechanism (C) | The share of the adult population that belongs to the political regime’s supporting group. | Large support for the government can reflect political trust and be a coping capacity for political fragility (Levi and Stoker, 2000). | Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) |
| Women's political empowerment | Coping mechanism (C) | The average of women’s civil liberties index, civil society participation index and political participation index. | Women’s participation and representation in decision-making reduce a state’s risk of civil war (Melander, 2005), decrease government corruption (Markham, 2012) and promote better standards of living across the whole of society (Perkins, 2017). | World Economic Forum GGI |
Security
The security dimension measures vulnerability to violence and crime, as well as the ability of institutions to prevent and mitigate violence. Security fragility affects other dimensions by distorting economies and societies through loss of life, damaged infrastructure and supply chains , eroded social capital and cohesion, among other challenges. Accountable, transparent and effective security sector institutions that balance state and human security needs are vital enablers of sustainable development.
| Name | Category | Description | Rationale | Data source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refugees and IDPs from country of origin | Risk (R) | Forcibly displaced and stateless people, including refugees, asylum seekers and others in need of international protection. | Forced displacement is mostly prompted by conflict, human rights violations and events seriously disturbing public order. It is both a cause and symptom of fragility. | UNHCR/IDMC |
| Presence of criminal networks | Risk (R) | Criminal networks illicitly traffic commodities but do not have territorial control or other defining features of mafia-style groups. | Criminal networks contribute to security fragility and have profound economic consequences, including both short- and long-term social and psychological costs. | Global Organised Crime Index |
| Historical deaths from war | Risk (R) | The number of deaths in state-based armed conflicts. Both military and civilian deaths are counted as battle-related deaths. | Death from war is both an immediate threat to a population's security and a risk to future security. Deaths resulting from armed violence inhibit development, breed grievances and can incite further violence. | UCDP |
| Historical deaths from non-state conflict | Risk (R) | The number of deaths in non-state conflict and one-sided violence by non-state actor. | Violence by non-state groups is an indicator of weak government control and insecurity. | UCDP |
| Attitudes on violence against women | Coping mechanism (C) | The percentage of women aged 15 to 49 who consider a husband/partner to be justified in hitting his wife/partner. | Violence against women has significant consequences on women’s lives, impacting their health, education and income. It also has societal and economic costs. Violence against women is underpinned by harmful social norms “normalising” men’s use of violence (OECD. SIGI 2023 Global Report. 2023). A lower tolerance to incidents of violence deters its normalization (Loudon, S., Goemans, C., & Koester, D, 2021). | Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) |
| Government cybersecurity capacity | Coping mechanism (C) | Measures whether a government has sufficiently technologically skilled staff and resources to mitigate harm from cyber-security threats. | Cyber warfare, such as election interference and power supply cut-offs, can expose a government and its population to attacks on critical infrastructure which may hamper the functioning of government and service delivery (McKinsey, 2020). | Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) |
| Rule of law | Coping mechanism (C) | Measures the independence of the judiciary; the extent to which rule of law prevails; the existence of direct civil control over the police; protection from political terror, unjustified imprisonment, exile and torture; absence of war and insurgencies; and the extent to which laws, policies and practices guarantee equal treatment. | The rule of law addresses grievances through means other than violence. It is associated with enduring peace (Easterly, 2001), better enforcement of civil codes and increased citizen protection (Okafor and Piesse, 2018). | World Governance Indicators (World Bank) |
| State control over territory | Coping mechanism (C) | The percentage of the territory that the state has effective control over (Coppedge et al, 2019). | The extent to which the state controls territory affects its ability to function effectively and to deliver basic services to its citizens. A lack of territorial control can damage the legitimacy of the state and cause distrust towards the government (Stollenwerk, 2018). | Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) |
Societal
The societal dimension measures vulnerability to risks affecting social capital and cohesion, and the presence of institutions to counteract such risks. Societal fragility exacerbates economic, political and social exclusions. It contributes to grievances among marginalised groups, thereby contributing to fragility in other dimensions and overall.
| Name | Category | Description | Rationale | Data source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urbanisation rate | Risk (R) | The rate of growth of the urban population. | Larger populations within clustered urban centres can increase pollution and reduce population health (Asi, 2020). while increasing crime rates (Muggah, 2014) and the risk of political conflict (see, e.g., the discussion in Shulz (2015)). | World Development Indicators (World Bank) |
| Income inequality | Risk (R) | The share of income received by the 10% of people with the highest disposable income divided by the share of income received by the lowest 40%. (OECD 2022) | The excessive concentration of income can lead to socially damaging outcomes, including poverty and conflict. | World Inequality Database |
| Forced displacement | Risk (R) | The number of forcibly displaced people (refugees and Internally Displaced People). | Displacement can exacerbate inequalities and the risk of conflict, especially in areas with limited services and few economic opportunities. However, inclusive policies and development investments for both those who have been forcibly displaced and host communities can foster social cohesion (World Bank, 2021). | UNHCR/IDMC |
| Exclusion by social group | Risk (R) | Exclusion is when individuals are denied access to services or public spaces based on their identity or belonging to a particular group. | Social exclusion denies some people the rights and opportunities afforded to others in their society simply because of who they are. This limits their potential and participation in society, resulting in negative impacts on income, health and education. | Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) |
| Access to justice | Coping mechanism (C) | The extent to which citizens enjoy secure and effective access to justice, including whether they can bring cases before the courts without risking their safety and the ability to seek redress if public authorities violate their rights. | Mechanisms to resolve disputes peacefully and fairly can reduce conflict and societal fragility. They also mitigate gender and economic inequalities by combating impunity for gender-based violence, and resolving land tenure and property rights disputes (OECD and Open Society Foundations, 2016). | Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) |
| Interpersonal trust | Coping mechanism (C) | The percentage of people who self-report that most people can be trusted. | Trust is a fundamental element of social capital and a key contributor to sustaining well-being. Higher trust correlates with lower violence and more political stability and accountability. Countries with higher income inequality also tend to report lower levels of trust (Ortiz-Ospina and Roser, 2016). | Legatum Institute |
| Media freedoms | Coping mechanism (C) | Measures whether the media are free and independent. “Media” refers to all relevant sources of news and commentary, including print, broadcast, online, social media and artistic works. | A free press is crucial for democracy. It informs citizens of their leaders’ successes or failures, conveys the people’s needs and desires to government bodies, and provides a platform for the open exchange of information and ideas. | Freedom House |
| Participatory environment for CSOs | Coping mechanism (C) | The degree of people’s voluntary involvement in civil society organisations, taking into account whether associations are state-sponsored. | Civil society organisations (CSOs) bring the voices of those on the frontlines of poverty, inequality and vulnerability into development processes. They can identify solutions for obstacles to social, economic and democratic development, and mobilise civil society to implement and uphold accountability for sustainable development. | Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) |
| Women's civil liberties | Coping mechanism (C) | Women’s civil liberties include freedom of domestic movement, the right to private property, freedom from forced labour and access to justice. | Civil liberties are the basic freedoms granted to citizens. Ensuring that women and men have equal rights to their civil liberties is essential for women’s empowerment and a healthy society. | Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) |