Agriculture across OECD countries is becoming more efficient. Between 1990 and 2023, agricultural output increased by 33%, while agricultural land area decreased by almost 11%.
This is real progress, but it’s not the whole story. New OECD data shows a more nuanced picture: while countries are producing more with less, agri-environmental trends remain uneven.
In recent years, agricultural ammonia emissions have decreased in most countries. Improvements have been observed in several indicators, including median greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity and median nitrogen and phosphorus surpluses. At the same time, these positive trends coexisted with stable overall GHG emission levels and deteriorating trends, such as the decline in farmland bird populations.
The environmental performance of agriculture is shaped by many factors, including country characteristics, long-term advances in technology, policy and farm practices. Increasingly, it is also impacted by shocks, including economic crises, disruptions like COVID-19, energy price spikes, geopolitical tensions and supply chain pressures.
But how do shocks affect the environmental performance of agriculture? Recent examples show that the use of certain inputs like fertiliser can be reduced quickly. But a price-driven dip is not the same as sustained environmental improvement.
How fertiliser price shocks affect nutrient use and environmental impact
Fertiliser prices are one key way global shocks affect the environmental performance of agriculture.
Fertilisers supply essential nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus, supporting crop yields and soil fertility. But higher fertiliser use can also increase nutrient surpluses, pollute water and damage soils.
When fertiliser prices rise sharply, farmers may use less. While this can temporarily lower nutrient surpluses and ease pressure on soil and water, such changes may reflect short-term production constraints, or deferred nutrient applications, rather than a sustained shift in fertiliser use.
Fertiliser price hikes and declining nutrient balances
Declines in nutrient balances following periods of high fertiliser prices are not new.
Following the 2007-2008 fertiliser price hike, nitrogen and phosphorus balances declined in many countries. More recently, median nitrogen surpluses decreased in 2022 and 2023, likely reflecting fertiliser price increases linked to the market disruption following the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.
Lower fertiliser use can support the environmental sustainability of agriculture when it comes from better nutrient management. When driven by price shocks, these reductions may be temporary and may also have knock-on effects for food security.
The productive and environmental implications of fertiliser and its exposure to shocks and trade disruptions explain why they have become a strategic policy issue in many countries.
The role of policy and data in turning shocks into lasting environmental progress
As the saying goes, what gets measured gets managed. Data such as the OECD agri-environmental indicators are essential to help distinguish temporary responses to shocks from long-term structural progress and assess whether efficiency gains are also improving overall environmental outcomes.
While data helps identify trends and drivers, policy determines whether short-term changes lead to lasting improvements.
Policies that promote targeted measures to reduce emissions and improve fertiliser and manure management help turn temporary reaction into long-term progress, ensuring that productivity growth is compatible with lower environmental impacts.
Overall, the message is clear: Agriculture has become more efficient, but efficiency alone may not be enough to improve performance across all agri-environmental indicators. Achieving lasting improvements and minimising trade-offs between food production and the environment requires strong, coherent policy frameworks, supported by robust data to monitor their effects.
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